Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: Week 7 Preview
October 10, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Tonight begins the final third of this football regular season.
And two thirds of the 602 teams eligible for this fall’s MHSAA 11 and 8-Player Playoffs still have a chance to earn what for most is a once or twice-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
That percentage, as well as the number of league championships wrapped up this fall, will change drastically by the end of this Saturday night. Below is a look at some of the games that will have the greatest impact on both lists. You can catch a number of those games and 29 total live on MHSAA.tv – click for the listing and links to those games.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
Bay & Thumb
St. Clair (6-0) at Marine City (6-0)
The winner is guaranteed a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title, which would be Marine City’s second league title in three seasons and St. Clair’s first in 2014. Although the Mariners are scoring more than 40 points per game, their defense has been arguably more impressive giving up only 49 points over six games and no more than 14 to any opponent. But St. Clair – winner of last year’s meeting 35-21 – will provide the toughest test so far. The Saints have averaged 32 points per game against a schedule that’s included four teams still eligible for automatic playoff bids.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Clare (6-0) at Beaverton (6-0), Port Huron (5-1) at Port Huron Northern (5-1), Freeland (5-1) at Saginaw Swan Valley (4-2), Flushing (3-3) at Fenton (5-1).
Greater Detroit
Almont (6-0) at Richmond (6-0)
A share of the Blue Water Area Conference title will go to the victor of this matchup for the third time this decade, and Almont has won six of the rivals’ last 10 meetings. The Raiders, as usual, are a defensive force giving up only 47 points so far while scoring nearly 50 per game against a group that includes two four-win teams and another at 3-3. Richmond’s scores have been closer against a similarly successful set of opponents – and it’s fair to believe this game will be much closer than last year’s 51-12 Almont win.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY South Lyon (6-0) at Walled Lake Western (5-1), Romeo (5-1) at Macomb Dakota (4-2), Orchard Lake St. Mary's (6-0) at Detroit Catholic Central (3-3), Livonia Franklin (6-0) at Dearborn Fordson (5-1).
Mid-Michigan
Carson City-Crystal (4-2) at Breckenridge (5-1)
A 16-6 Week 1 loss to still-unbeaten Beaverton keeps looking better and better for the reigning Division 8 runner-up Huskies, who have yet to be challenged since with a combined 220-14 margin of victory over the last five games. Breckenridge also owns a 3-0 record against Carson City-Crystal since joining the Mid-State Activities Conference, and last year’s 30-12 win clinched the league title. Tonight’s meeting will decide the outright championship again – and all of the above surely is motivation for the Eagles, who quietly will guarantee an eighth-straight winning season with one more victory this fall.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Olivet (6-0) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (2-4), Canton (3-3) at Howell (3-3), St. Johns (4-2) at Fowlerville (5-1), Williamston (4-2) at Mason (6-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Harbor Springs (5-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (6-0)
It’s hard to beat out a matchup of undefeated league leaders for the week’s top game (see Glen Lake/Kingsley below). But while those two are setting the pace in their divisions of the Northern Michigan Football League – in fact, Glen Lake has clinched a share of the Leaders – this matchup should decide the outright champion of the NMFL Legacy, either tonight or eventually. A victory this evening would give the Rams the championship after they finished second in the Legacy two of the first five seasons since the league was formed. Johannesburg-Lewiston won last season’s title thanks to an 18-15 win over Harbor Springs – and while a victory tonight would earn the Cardinals only a share of this year’s crown, their final obstacle to claiming it outright would be a Week 9 opponent that hasn’t won a game this fall.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (6-0) at Kingsley (6-0), Traverse City West (4-2) at Cadillac (4-2), Mancelona (4-2) at Charlevoix (4-2), Traverse City Central (5-1) at Alpena (3-3).
Southeast & Border
Jonesville (5-1) at Reading (5-1)
No one should be surprised Reading is playing tonight for a share of the Big 8 Conference title – the reigning Division 8 champion Rangers are attempting to win their third-straight league championship and have been tripped up by only unbeaten Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 1. Jonesville, meanwhile, is enjoying its most memorable season in years as it pursues its first league title since 2002 after last week guaranteeing its first winning season since 2013. Also not surprising: After being shut out by the Pirates, Reading has averaged nearly 53 points per game in league play. But the Comets have given up only 43 total including just 18 in their opening night loss to still-unbeaten Hillsdale.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-2) at Clinton (6-0), Dexter (5-1) at Pinckney (5-1), Coldwater (5-1) at Parma Western (5-1), Ida (3-3) at Hillsdale (6-0).
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Lakeview (6-0) at St. Joseph (6-0)
While this doesn’t mean anything of league significance to the leaders of their respective Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference divisions, it could provide a nice confidence boost as both programs should have an opportunity for a special postseason as well. Lakeview is the best in the SMAC East, having clinched a share of that title after two straight sub-.500 overall season finishes, and the Spartans yet to allow an opponent to get within single digits. St. Joseph is tied with Portage Northern for first in the SMAC West, with its most impressive offensive and defensive output so far since finishing 10-2 in 2015.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Vicksburg (5-1) at Paw Paw (6-0), Delton Kellogg (4-2) at Kalamazoo United (3-3), Decatur (3-3) at Centreville (4-2), Jackson Lumen Christi (6-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (3-3).
Upper Peninsula
West Iron County (5-1) at Ishpeming (4-2)
Tonight’s winner moves into first place by a game in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron with two league games to play. These two decided the title last season, as Ishpeming won their regular-season meeting 14-0 and then came back four weeks later and beat West Iron in their Division 8 District Final 38-0. This latest round might be decided when the Wykons are on offense. They score only 25 points per game, yet Ishpeming has given up more than 30 in four games – but won two of those.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Menominee (4-2) at Marquette (2-4), Hancock (4-2) at Iron Mountain (6-0), L'Anse (4-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (4-2), Gladstone (3-3) at Escanaba (5-1).
West Michigan
Hudsonville (5-1) at Rockford (6-0)
There’s still time for the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red to get shaken up regardless of what happens this weekend – Rockford finishes with third-place Grandville and fourth-place East Kentwood, and the Eagles still face the Falcons and Holland West Ottawa. But this one will play a role regardless of what’s yet to come. The Eagles somewhat stunned previously-undefeated Grandville 44-21 last week, and are only a one-point Week 2 loss to Holt from undefeated – and Holt suddenly looks like one of the Lansing area’s best. The Rams clinched a spot in the playoffs for the MHSAA-record 25th straight season, and this actually has been their best start since 2009 – despite playing nonleague versus Muskegon Mona Shores, Grand Rapids Christian and Lowell, all in contention for their O-K divisions’ titles.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Zeeland East (5-1) at Byron Center (6-0), Cedar Springs (5-1) at Lowell (4-2), Central Montcalm (6-0) at Reed City (4-2), Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1) at Spring Lake (4-2).
8-Player
Brethren (4-2) at Mesick (5-1)
Like the stories for many 8-player teams, 11-player football was not frequently kind to either of these teams for quite a few years before they made the switch – Brethren in 2016 and Mesick a year later. But the Bobcats are the reigning West Michigan D League champions, and Mesick was runner-up its debut season and is playing this fall for its first league title since 1998. Aside from a 44-38 loss to Mio in Week 1, Mesick has been a rare 8-player defensive force giving up 26 points total over the last five weeks with three shutouts. Brethren has scored 60 or more points three times over the last five weeks, making those units the likely key matchup.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY International Academy of Flint (4-2) at Morrice (6-0), Pickford (5-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-0), Kinde-North Huron (5-1) at Deckerville (6-0). SATURDAY Onekama (5-1) at Portland St. Patrick (6-0).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Howell players charge onto the field prior to Friday’s game against Salem, an eventual 65-7 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)