Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 Preview
September 7, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The most difficult part of previewing the state’s top football matchups each week is coming up with an introduction that hits on a common theme for what we can expect from those games – but this week we’ll stick with the obvious.
Every featured Drive for Detroit preview matchup tonight and Saturday pits a pair of undefeated teams whose seasons will hardly be over if they take a loss over the next two days – but who also could be rewarded as victors with some serious momentum as league schedules get underway and the first third of the regular season waves good-bye.
Our weekly previews are powered by MI Student Aid. Find all of our scores as they come in on the MHSAA Score Center, and click on teams off that page for updated standings and playoff points. MHSAA.tv will broadcast eight games this weekend from across the state – click here for the schedule.
Bay & Thumb
Richmond (2-0) at Croswell-Lexington (2-0), Friday
Richmond has won or shared the Blue Water Area Conference title three of the last four seasons, fending off mostly Algonac and Almont during that time. This could be Croswell-Lexington’s turn to jump into the mix. The Pioneers are coming off two straight playoff seasons and fell to the Blue Devils by only three points in last year’s meeting.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Flint Powers Catholic (2-0) at Bay City Central (1-1), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (1-1) at Davison (2-0), Detroit Country Day (1-1) at Flushing (1-1), Beaverton (2-0) at Gladwin (0-2).
Greater Detroit
Bloomfield Hills (2-0) at Clarkston (2-0), Friday
The Black Hawks have won 11 straight regular-season games, including 28-24 last week over highly-regarded West Bloomfield to open the Oakland Activities Association Red schedule. Now Bloomfield Hills – last season’s OAA Blue champ before switching divisions – gets the reigning OAA Red winner Clarkston and faces a defense that held both Lapeer and Southfield Arts & Technology to seven points apiece over the first two weeks, respectively.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Livonia Churchill (2-0) at Livonia Stevenson (2-0), Belleville (2-0) at Dearborn Edsel Ford (2-0), Wyandotte Roosevelt (2-0) at Lincoln Park (2-0), SATURDAY Detroit Catholic Central (1-1) at Detroit U-D Jesuit (1-1).
Mid-Michigan
Perry (2-0) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (2-0), Friday
This could end as one of the most important nights in Perry football history. The Ramblers are off to the best possible start as they pursue their first playoff appearance, and can take the momentum to an unprecedented level with a win over the reigning Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion. The Vikings won last year’s meeting only 37-32, their closest victory of a perfect league run.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Williamston (2-0) at Portland (1-1), Bath (2-0) at Fowler (1-1), Houghton Lake (2-0) at Clare (1-1), East Lansing (1-1) at Grand Ledge (1-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central (2-0) vs. Traverse City West (2-0) at Thirlby Field, Friday
It’s nearly a guarantee this will be the most attended high school game in Michigan this weekend and one of the most highly-attended anywhere this year. These teams meet annually on the field they share to honor military and local first-response personnel in a “Patriot Game,” and they’ll draw 10,000 fans for this long-awaited rematch after Central downed West 10-8 during the regular season and 13-12 in a Division 2 District opener in 2016.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Lincoln Alcona (2-0) at Rogers City (1-1), Indian River Inland Lakes (1-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (2-0), Boyne City (2-0) at Cheboygan (1-1), SATURDAY Elk Rapids (2-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (2-0).
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central (2-0) at Stevensville Lakeshore (2-0), Friday
The Southwest Michigan Activities Conference West is expected to again be one of the most competitive leagues in the state, and for the fourth straight season these two powers will kick off their league schedules against each other. Last year’s meeting didn’t feature the usual down-to-the-end drama of previous matchups this decade. But both enter tonight with similar wins over Battle Creek Central and the need for a quick upper hand as league mate St. Joseph also has won its first two games this fall.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (1-1) at Watervliet (2-0), Edwardsburg (2-0) at Paw Paw (2-0), Cassopolis (2-0) at White Pigeon (2-0), Plainwell (1-1) at Vicksburg (2-0).
Southeast & Border
Battle Creek Harper Creek (2-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (2-0), Friday
Lumen Christi tripped up only twice on last year’s march to the Division 6 title – to Grand Rapids West Catholic on opening night and Harper Creek in Week 3 in a 10-point loss that ultimately led to those two sharing the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title. The Titans avenged the first defeat by downing West Catholic two weeks ago – and there’s a great chance again this game will have league title implications.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Petersburg-Summerfield (2-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-0), Marshall (1-1) at Parma Western (2-0), Napoleon (1-1) at Michigan Center (2-0), Blissfield (1-1) at Ida (2-0).
Upper Peninsula
L’Anse (2-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-0), Friday
This one doesn’t feature the usual heavyweights of a top U.P. matchup. But there are some valid reasons for it being the top pick this week. L’Anse, which already has equaled last season’s two wins, has given up 12 points over two games and last week downed a Lake Linden-Hubbell team that didn’t lose a regular season game in 2015 or 2016. Westwood also went only 2-7 last year, and also has given up only 12 points over two games – and if it scores 26 tonight will match its offensive output for all of last season as well.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Lake Linden-Hubbell (0-2) at Munising (1-1), Newberry (1-1) at Bark River-Harris (2-0), Hurley, Wis. (2-1) at Calumet (2-0), Iron River West Iron County (1-1) at Iron Mountain (0-2).
West Michigan
East Grand Rapids (2-0) at Lowell (2-0)
It’s become one of the givens every season: Lowell is going to play a loaded nonconference schedule. The Red Arrows will look to make it two straight 3-0 starts against a Warren DeLaSalle/Rockford/East Grand Rapids trio and after downing the Pioneers 34-7 last fall. But East Grand Rapids also has two wins over notable opponents – annual power Farmington Hills Harrison and 2016 playoff qualifier Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, and the Pioneers surely are aching to take a win from their former league rival for the first time since 2010.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rockford (1-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (2-0), East Kentwood (2-0) at Hudsonville (1-1), Greenville (2-0) at Cedar Springs (1-1), SATURDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (1-1) at Zeeland West (1-1)
8-Player
Camden-Frontier (2-0) at Battle Creek St. Philip (2-0), Saturday
These two met under similar circumstances in Week 4 last season, both undefeated with St. Philip the reigning MHSAA runner-up and Camden-Frontier an upstart quickly gaining respect. The Redskins receive plenty now with a 10-2 record since switching to 8-player, but this will certainly be their first significant test of 2017. Last year’s loss contributed to St. Philip just missing the playoffs; the Tigers are looking strong so far with a win over 2016 semifinalist Wyoming Tri-unity Christian already to their credit.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (1-1) at Stephenson (2-0), Portland St. Patrick (2-0) at Webberville (1-1), Pickford (2-0) at Engadine (2-0), SATURDAY Atlanta (2-0) at Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (1-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Lowell blasts forward for a touchdown during its win over Warren DeLaSalle in Week 1 at Wayne State University. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)