Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
A Game for Every Fan: Week 5
September 24, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Halftime of this weekend’s games will mark the midway point of the 2015 football regular season.
And the final results this Friday and Saturday could prove to be turning points for a number of teams playing for league titles all over the state.
The Week 5 slate is filled with matchups of teams tied for first place in their respective leagues, plus others pitting leaders against those in second and hoping to move up. The report below touches on many, but not all of these – tune in to the Score Center this weekend for scores and updated standings as those games are decided.
Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth (4-0) at Millington (4-0)
The latest chapter in this Tri-Valley Conference East rivalry should again decide the champion. Millington handed the Eagles their only loss of the 2014 regular season – although these two then shared the title with Birch Run after the Panthers beat the Cardinals. Millington has won nine of the last 15 meetings, but Frankenmuth holds a slim 22-20 edge going back to their first reported meeting in 1956.
Others that caught my eye: Almont (4-0) at Richmond (4-0), Mount Pleasant (3-1) at Lapeer (4-0), Flint Powers Catholic (3-1) at Midland Dow (3-1), St. Clair Shores South Lake (4-0) at Marine City (3-1).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Cass Tech (4-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (4-0)
This Detroit Public School League rivalry game always is anticipated, but this season more than most. King’s only regular-season loss last season was to Cass Tech, in the PSL championship game; the Crusaders then saw their season end in the first round of the playoffs the next week. However, they opened this fall by beating reigning Division 2 champion Warren DeLaSalle. Cass Tech hasn’t lost a regular-season game since Week 8 of 2012 – to King – but despite dominating four opponents that had winning records a year ago, might be behind the Crusaders in terms of generating statewide buzz.
Others that caught my eye: Warren Mott (4-0) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (3-1), Belleville (3-1) at Dearborn Heights Robichaud (4-0), Southfield (3-1) at Farmington Hills Harrison (3-1), Warren DeLaSalle (3-1) at Orchard Lake St. Mary's (4-0).
Mid-Michigan
Olivet (3-1) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (4-0)
Lakewood has plenty of history it would like to still make, but consider this from the Vikings’ start: they are 4-0 for the first time since 1974. Those four wins tie the total for all of last season and tie the team’s most for a season since 2005. Lakewood’s 176 points through four games is more than they scored during 14 of the last 20 seasons. But Olivet certainly can dampen the excitement by winning tonight’s Greater Lansing Activities Conference matchup, like the Eagles did last season 42-9 on the way to winning the league title.
Others that caught my eye: Jackson (3-1) at Grand Ledge (4-0), Flint Beecher (4-0) at Corunna (3-1), Haslett (3-1) at Mason (2-2), Holt (2-2) at East Lansing (2-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Boyne City (4-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (4-0)
By the smallest of margins, this game gets top billing over two others matching undefeated teams. For starters, Boyne City won the matchup last season 28-27 – and eventually, the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division title. The Ramblers then made the Division 6 Semifinals, and then graduated a significant group of contributors – but has come back to shut out two of its first four opponents. Then again, St. Francis didn’t give up a point this season until last week and is sparking statewide chatter like its contending teams of a few years ago.
Others that caught my eye: Gaylord (4-0) at Traverse City Central (4-0), St. Ignace (4-0) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (4-0), Onekama (4-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-1), McBain (3-1) at Manton (2-2).
Southeast & Border
Clinton (4-0) at Morenci (4-0)
Morenci won 10 games last fall for the first time since 1996 – but the only blemish on an otherwise incredible regular-season run was a 28-26 loss to Clinton that ended up deciding the Tri-County Conference championship. All four of the Bulldogs’ wins this season are against teams .500 or better so far, lining this up as again a likely league title decider – Clinton has shut out two of its first four opponents and won 31 straight regular-season games.
Others that caught my eye: Brooklyn Columbia Central (4-0) at Ida (4-0), Monroe (3-1) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-0), Chelsea (4-0) at Tecumseh (2-2), New Boston Huron (2-2) at Milan (3-1).
Southwest Corridor
Berrien Springs (4-0) at Bridgman (4-0)
Both of these programs have enjoyed recent success; Bridgman has made the playoffs three straight seasons, and Berrien Springs made the postseason last year and two of the last four. But there’s a little more intrigue although these teams don’t play in the same division of the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference. Bridgman has never started 4-0 – and looks like the BCS Blue favorite. Berrien Springs likely will battle Buchanan in the BCS White and hasn’t allowed a point in two weeks, most recently shutting out BCS Red favorite Cassopolis.
Others that caught my eye: Saugatuck (4-0) at Decatur (3-1), Dowagiac (3-1) at Edwardsburg (4-0), Jackson Lumen Christi (4-0) at Marshall (3-1), Sturgis (3-1) at Vicksburg (3-1).
Upper Peninsula
Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-0) at L'Anse (3-1)
The Lakes are used to success and have made the playoffs nine of the last 11 seasons – but are 4-0 for the first time since winning 10 games in 2009 and on pace to score their most points since 1997. L’Anse has bounced back from 4-5 a year ago but has a tough schedule over the season’s second half – and would enjoy the momentum from playing a tough opponent well this weekend.
Others that caught my eye: Crystal Falls Forest Park (2-2) at Newberry (3-1), Detroit Country Day (3-1) at Escanaba (2-2), Ishpeming Westwood (2-2) at Iron Mountain (2-2), Felch North Dickinson (1-3) at Bark River-Harris (4-0).
West Michigan
Montague (4-0) at Whitehall (3-1)
The season’s first half has been one of resurgence for Montague, one of the state’s most successful programs during the first decade of the 2000s. The Wildcats are 4-0 for the first time since 2010 and after going only 2-7 a year ago. They’re giving up points, but scoring more including 70 on Ravenna and 55 against Shelby. Whitehall did fall by a score to undefeated Traverse City Central last week, but otherwise navigated well a solid nonleague slate – and beat Montague 48-20 a year ago.
Others that caught my eye: Hudsonville Unity Christian (3-1) at Byron Center (3-1), Grand Rapids Christian (3-1) at Hudsonville (3-1), Zeeland East (3-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (4-0), Caledonia (2-2) at Rockford (2-2).
8-Player
Posen (4-0) at Pickford (3-1)
Pickford should be finding 8-player football to its liking so far. The Panthers, in their first season, have one more win than they earned all of 2014 and have lost this fall only to reigning MHSAA runner-up Cedarville. Posen has shown to be in a similar elite class so far, especially after last week’s 30-point win over always-tough Bellaire – and the Vikings have guaranteed tying their best finish since 2010.
Others that caught my eye: Webberville (4-0) at Waldron (4-0), Owendale-Gagetown (4-0) at Akron-Fairgrove (3-1).
PHOTO: A Detroit Cass Tech ball carrier breaks through during the Technicians’ win this season against Detroit Renaissance. (Photo courtesy of Detroit Public School League.)