Breslin Bound: Girls C-D Semis Preview
March 12, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There will be some who arrive for the MHSAA Class C and D Semifinals on Thursday already quite familiar with the Breslin Center.
Reigning Class D champion St. Ignace is back, this time in Class C. The reigning runner-up from that class, Saginaw Nouvel, also returns. So too does Athens, a Class D Semifinalist a year ago as well.
But the most discussed player will be the one preparing to make herself most at home. Crystal Falls Forest Park is back for the second time in three seasons and features Miss Basketball winner Alexis Gussert, who has signed with Michigan State University for next season.
All four Class C and D Semifinals will be played Thursday, with all four championship games Saturday.
Semifinals - Thursday
Class C
Saginaw Nouvel (20-4) vs. Gobles (26-0), 1 p.m.
Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett (20-3) vs. St. Ignace (23-2), 2:50 p.m.
Class D
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (20-5) vs. Marine City Cardinal Mooney (19-5), 6 p.m.
Crystal Falls Forest Park (25-0) vs. Athens (22-3), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 pm
Class C - 4 pm
Class D - 10 am
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit, the Class D and A title games on FOX Sports Detroit's primary channel and the Class C and B games on FOX Sports Detroit-PLUS. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
And now, a look at the Semifinalists in Class C and D.
Class C
GOBLES
Record/rank: 26-0, No. 6
League finish: First in Southwest Athletic Conference North
Coach: John Curtis, 12th season (183-91)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 49-40 (Quarterfinal) and 39-35 over honorable mention Mendon, 56-52 over New Buffalo in Regional Final, 44-40 over Otsego.
Players to watch: Michaela DeKilder, 5-10 sr. F (15.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.2 spg); Ellen Doyle, 5-10 soph. G (12 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.3 apg).
Outlook: Gobles is making its first trip to the MHSAA Semifinals after its second Quarterfinal ever Tuesday. The Tigers dominated the SAC North, winning all of their league games by double digits. Gobles is 46-3 combined over the last two seasons, and DeKilder has been a force throughout. But she has plenty of help – all five starters average at least seven points per game.
GROSSE POINTE WOODS UNIVERSITY LIGGETT
Record/rank: 20-3, unranked
League finish: First in Michigan Independent Athletic Conference Blue
Coach: Omar Ahart, second season (42-6)
Championship history: Class C runner-up 2012 and 2011.
Best wins: 50-47 over No. 1 Blissfield in Quarterfinal, 48-25 over Class D No. 8 Birmingham Roeper.
Players to watch: Jessica Rotzoll, 5-8 jr. F (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg). Nia Ahart, 5-7 fr. G (11.6 ppg, 4.6 apg); Lauren Ristovski, 5-9 jr. G (9.8 ppg, 3.9 apg).
Outlook: Three starters return to Breslin after also playing on the 2012 team that finished runner-up, including the team’s lone senior, guard Angelina Evangelista. Sophomore forward Kendall McConico adds another 10.6 points per game to make this lineup full of scoring threats, especially from the perimeter as only one player is taller than 5-9. Rotzoll also had made 40 3-pointers heading into this week.
ST. IGNACE
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 9
League finish: First in Straits Area Conference
Coach: Dorene Ingalls, 15th season (314-59)
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 2013), two runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 54-37 over honorable mention McBain in Quarterfinal, 68-34 over Class D No. 10 Brimley, 58-52 over Detroit Renaissance.
Players to watch: Kelley Wright, 5-10 sr. G (16.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 4.2 apg, 6.7 spg); Abbey Ostman, 5-9 soph. F (12.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.2 spg).
Outlook: The Saints are making their fifth straight trip to Breslin Center and are back in Class C after a one-season hiatus to Class D – where St. Ignace won last season’s championship. Wright was a starter the last two trips to East Lansing as well, and Ostman and senior guards Emily Hinsman (9.1 ppg) and Morgan LaVake (5.3 ppg) also started in that 2013 title game win. Wright is a returning all-stater.
SAGINAW NOUVEL
Record/rank: 20-4, No. 10
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Mary Jo Skiendziel, first season (8-0)
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 2008), two runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 49-43 and 51-40 (Regional Semifinal) over No. 3 Reese, 47-35 over No. 5 Sandusky in Regional Final, 47-40 over honorable mention St. Louis in Quarterfinal, 57-37 over Class B No. 5 Clare, 53-47 over Class B No. 8 Flint Powers Catholic.
Players to watch: Rachel McInerny, 6-2 sr. C (11.7 ppg), Laurel Jacqmain, 5-7 soph. G (12.4 ppg)
Outlook: There have been some big changes in the Nouvel program since its last trip to Breslin, but plenty has stayed the same as well. Assistant coach Skiendziel was promoted to head coach last month and has kept the team rolling with three starters back from last season’s five-point loss to Manchester in the championship game. McInerney can be a force in the post, while Jacqmain and junior forward Nicole Buckingham also played big parts as starters during last season’s run.
Class D
ATHENS
Record/rank: 22-3, No. 5
League finish: First in Big 8 Conference
Coach: Calvin Quist, ninth season (166-53)
Championship history: Class D runner-up 2012.
Best wins: 42-39 over honorable mention St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic in Regional Semifinal, 38-20 over honorable mention Wyoming Potter’s House Christian in Regional Final, 38-30 over Concord.
Players to watch: Audrey Oswalt, 5-9 sr. F (12.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.6 spg); Allison Fuller, 5-7 jr. G (13.5 ppg, 3.5 spg).
Outlook: Athens has become a regular at Finals weekend, with this its third straight trip emerging from a competitive Big 8 Conference. Fuller was named an all-state honorable mention Tuesday. Senior guard Allysha Beal (9.3 ppg) joined Oswalt and Fuller in the starting lineup for last season’s Semifinal loss to Waterford Our Lady, and all three were among that team’s top scorers as well.
CRYSTAL FALLS FOREST PARK
Record/rank: 25-0, No. 1
League finish: First in Skyline Conference
Coach: Jeff Syrjanen, ninth season (169-37)
Championship history: Class D runner-up 1995.
Best wins: 69-56 over No. 2 Posen in Quarterfinal, 69-52 over No. 4 Eben Junction Superior Central in Regional Final, 56-21 over honorable mention Dollar Bay in Regional Semifinal, 82-38 (District Semifinal) and 61-28 over honorable mention Watersmeet.
Players to watch: Alexis Gussert, 6-0 sr. F (29.4 ppg, 7.7 apg, 11.9 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 4.0 spg); Maria Stankewicz, 5-5 soph. G (7.6 ppg, 2.8 apg).
Outlook: Forest Park is making one more run at its first MHSAA championship with one of the leading scorers in MHSAA history in Gussert, who was named Associated Press Class D Player of the Year on Monday. Gussert – who also led the Trojans to the Semifinals as a sophomore – broke a single-season MHSAA record with her 101st 3-pointer in the Quarterfinal. Senior center Kendra Campbell and junior guard Sierra Robarge join Stankewicz in adding 7.5 points per game.
MARINE CITY CARDINAL MOONEY
Record/rank: 19-5, No. 9
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League East
Coach: Susan Everhart, 26th season (record N/A).
Championship history: Class D runner-up 2009.
Best wins: 39-20 over honorable mention Kingston in Regional Final, 43-34, 53-51 and 43-36 (Quarterfinal) over Clarkston Everest Collegiate, 49-34 over Class B No. 6 Ypsilanti Arbor Prep.
Players to watch: Katie Theut, 5-10 sr. G (20.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.4 bpg); Madison Southers, 6-0 sr. C (11 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 5.2 bpg).
Outlook: Cardinal Mooney is back at Breslin for the first time since that runner-up season of 2009 and with a starting lineup featuring four seniors. Theut was named all-state Tuesday and Southers received an honorable mention. The Cardinals feature further frontcourt strength with 5-9 senior forward Lauren Higgins, who averages 10.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Cardinal Mooney played a host of Class A, B and C schools as well, with four losses coming to those more sizable programs.
MOUNT PLEASANT SACRED HEART
Record/rank: 20-5, unranked
League finish: Tied for first in Mid-State Activities Conference
Coach: Damon Brown, sixth season (107-33)
Championship history: Class D runner-up 2008.
Best wins: 49-35 over No. 3 Frankfort in Quarterfinal, 55-40 and 46-34 (District Final) over honorable mention Big Rapids Crossroads Academy, 34-23 over Class C No. 8 Carson City-Crystal.
Players to watch: Sara Hansen, 5-6 sr. G (19.1 ppg, 3.1 apg, 5.4 spg); Averi Gamble, 6-3 soph. C (12.7 ppg 8.0 rpg, 2.3 bpg).
Outlook: The Irish were stopped in the Quarterfinals two of the last four seasons, but broke through with an upset Tuesday. Still, it can’t be considered a huge surprise, given Sacred Heart’s losses – one to Class C Quarterfinalist Saginaw Nouvel, another to Class C No. 8 Carson City Crystal and a third to Class B No. 5 Clare. Hansen is the lone senior, but gets additional help in the backcourt from junior Riley Terwilliger (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.7 apg.).
PHOTO: Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart's Sara Hansen (2) will lead the Irish in its first MHSAA Semifinal since 2008.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.