As Capac's Win Wait Ends, Energy & Enthusiasm Drive New Era
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
December 21, 2021
The Capac girls basketball team and its new coach, Ryan Rossi, had been waiting a long time for the events of Dec. 11.
For Rossi, it was the end of a 20-month wait for his wedding, which was originally planned and rescheduled twice – first in April of 2020, then later in December of that year.
That meant, however, he wasn’t in the Capac gymnasium when the team he took over this past September was able to celebrate the end of its own long wait. The Chiefs defeated Flint Southwestern 41-19 that afternoon, picking up their first win since Feb. 20, 2020.
“We screamed a lot,” Capac senior Juliana Closurdo said. “We were really excited. It almost didn’t even feel real because we haven’t experienced that in so long. I know everybody was so ecstatic. (Rossi) actually sent us all a group text and said congrats, and that he had the whole wedding party watching. That felt great, getting that support, that he was at his wedding, and he was watching us and cheering us on.”
Capac is 2-3 to start the season, a big step forward after going 0-14 in 2020-21, and just one win away from matching the program’s total over the past two seasons (three). While the wins are more than welcomed and confirmation the Chiefs are making improvements, the goals for this season are much simpler.
“I feel like we’ve already gotten off to a successful start,” Closurdo said. “A successful year for us is just playing with joy. Last year was really rough on everybody, and I know that I haven’t played with this much happiness in a while. Being able to play and be happy on the court, and not having the pressure of having to get a win and being able to go off that momentum, it’s great.”
Rossi came to Capac from Yale, where he still is a teacher and had previously coached at the middle school and junior varsity levels. Since he wasn’t hired until the fall, he had to learn about his players through a handful of open gyms and by going through old Capac game film and some of his own, as he had coached against a few of the girls with the Yale JV.
“Also, I didn’t really care,” Rossi said. “Last year was last year. Their previous experiences were their previous experiences. Let’s go in, and the first thing we have to do is make this a place where these kids want to be. These girls made it easy. They are a great group, they’re awesome. Right away, they treated me like their family. They were really accepting.”
Rossi was impressed with the players’ enthusiasm and energy coming into the season. They noticed the same thing with their new coach.
“He always wanted us to have high energy, and he’s always telling us to believe in ourselves,” Capac senior Erica Yeashevich said. “Just the high energy he has, I feel like that was really helpful. And he put us all at the same level when he walked in.”
Capac opened the season with a 44-11 loss against Deckerville, but even in that game Rossi said he saw some glimmers of hope. That was followed by the win against Southwestern, which had Capac at .500 for the first time since 2017.
While that win snapped the 16-game losing streak, it was the second win, 32-24 against Kimball Landmark in Game 4, that showed Rossi more about his team.
“As a team, we have really adopted the mindset of we can only control what happens one play at a time,” Rossi said. “Say we’re down 10 points early, there’s not a shot that’s going to score 10 points. We’re not scoreboard watching, we’re taking it one play at a time. If you miss a layup, that has no effect on your next shot. The girls are really adopting that mindset. In the game against Landmark, that was huge, because we were having a very poor shooting night.
“That’s been very player driven. There have been messages that we wanted them to think about, but they have taken it and ran with it. They are very much responding and making it their own, which I think is huge. That speaks to the players we have, especially the seniors.”
That mindset has led to Capac setting smaller, attainable goals as it continues to look for positive momentum within the program. The Chiefs know a Greater Thumb Conference East title isn’t likely, but that doesn’t mean they can’t push teams like Sandusky and Harbor Beach beyond what they’ve been able to in the past. And if more wins are the result of that attitude, even better.
“Honestly, I feel like our expectations aren’t that high, so a successful year for me is reaching all of the small goals, getting better and improving on last year,” Yeashevich said. “The big thing for me is just having fun playing basketball. So far, basketball has already been the highlight of my day every day this season.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Capac coach Ryan Rossi talks things over with his players during a game this season. (Middle) Juliana Closurdo (3) and teammate Trinity Lietz high-five Rossi. (Below) Closurdo defends against Kimball Landmark. (Top photo by Guadalupe Rosales, middle and below photos courtesy of the Capac girls basketball program.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.