Class A: Comeback Classic
March 17, 2012
EAST LANSING – Shar’Rae Davis had one thought when she received the ball with only a few seconds remaining and Grand Haven’s first championship on the line in Saturday’s MHSAA Class A Final.
She saw the rim on Breslin Center’s north basket. And she knew she had 12 seconds to reach it.
“I didn’t even see the rest of my team. So I was like, I’ve got to score,” Davis said. “That was my mentality.
Not only did Davis race the length of the court; she drove to finish the third-longest comeback in MHSAA Girls Basketball Finals history.
Davis completed her lay-up with six seconds to play. Grosse Pointe South couldn’t connect on its final last-second attempt. And the only thing Davis was a second late for was the start of the celebration: Grand Haven 54, Grosse Pointe South 53.
“When I made the basket, I thought it was tied or something. I was looking around for the timeout. Nothing was happening,” she said. “Then I saw Abby (Cole) jump, everyone run at me. I still didn’t believe it. I had to look at the score.”
Believe it: Grand Haven won its first MHSAA championship after surviving a harrowing double-overtime Quarterfinal against East Lansing, and a late rush by 2011 champion Inskter in Friday’s Semifinal.
But Saturday’s comeback topped them both.
Starting at the end of the first quarter, Grosse Pointe South led for 24 minutes, 5 seconds straight. The Blue Devils’ advantage reached 18 points with 1:51 to go in the third quarter.
“Obviously things weren’t looking good for us down 18. It was another nightmare,” Buccaneers coach Katie Kowalczyk-Fulmer said. “But there was a lot of time left on the clock. And we just talked about getting back into it one possession at a time. You can’t get it all at once. We couldn’t foul just to foul because we knew if the game was going to come down to free throws and we put them at the line, we wouldn’t have a chance.”
Instead, she directed her players to deliver the ball repeatedly to Cole.
The 6-foot-5 junior scored nine of her 18 points over the final 9:38 of the game, including seven straight free throws as the Devils tried to keep her from getting any closer to the hoop (she also had eight rebounds and eight blocks). Davis scored 14 of her game-high 19 points during that 27-10 run.
But those efforts still nearly weren’t enough.
Reeling a bit after giving up the big lead, Grosse Pointe South got a jolt of hope from freshman guard Cierra Rice. Grand Haven took its first lead in two quarters with 1:10 to play, and held a two-point advantage with 24 second to go when Rice dropped in a lay-up, was fouled, and made the free throw to give the Devils back a one-point edge.
But after Davis’ ensuing full-court scoring run, the last attempt by the Devils didn’t fall.
Only Farmington Our Lady of Mercy in 1982 (19 points) and Detroit Cass Tech in 1987 (20) made bigger championship game comebacks than Grand Haven – both to win Class A titles as well.
“We knew we could do anything because of that Quarterfinal game,” Grand Haven senior Alex Law said of the 42-40 win over East Lansing. “It was crazy, but that gave us so much confidence. I was like, ‘Let’s go, we can do this. We’ve got this. It’s our last game. Let’s do it right.’”
Grand Haven finished 27-1, losing only to East Kentwood – a loss the Buccaneers avenged later in the season. They were ranked No. 1 heading into the postseason.
Grosse Pointe South (23-4) was only an honorable mention heading into playoffs. But that didn’t make Saturday any less heart-breaking.
Four Blue Devils scored at least 10 points, led by Rice with 14 and junior Claire DeBoer with 13. Three grabbed at least 10 rebounds – Senior Caitlin Moore had 12 to go with her 12 points, and senior Catherine Palazzolo had 10 to go with her 10 points as Grosse Pointe South outrebounded the taller Buccaneers by 19.
But nine of the Blue Devils 19 turnovers also came during that final Grand Haven run, caused in large part by the Bucs’ “monster” press defense, as they call it. It produced monstrous – and championship – results.
“The past couple of games when the pressure got on, we haven’t always handled it well. And they making the adjustment and really going inside, throwing into the big girls, definitely hurt,” Blue Devils coach Kevin Richards said. “What can you say? We made plays all but right at the very end. We had a great effort and the gameplan worked. We just need to have a little bit better ball security.”
Click for the box score. Watch the game and both teams' postgame press conferences at MHSAA.tv.
PHOTOS: (Top) Grand Haven celebrates its first MHSAA championship. (Photo courtesy of Terry McNamara Photography.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.