Frankenmuth Drives League Streak to 97
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
December 13, 2016
Tom Keller is willing to talk about the streak if you ask him.
He’s starting to get used to it.
“It’s funny; it seems like a lot of people are bringing it up lately,” said the Frankenmuth girls basketball coach, who has led his team to 97 straight Tri-Valley Conference East wins. “We actually talked about it in practice the other day for one of the few times.
"(The streak) happens on a day-to-day basis. In our program, we don’t really set a lot of goals; we’re much more concerned about the process. If we do things the right way day after day, those wins and those streaks kind of take care of themselves.”
Frankenmuth hasn’t lost a conference game since Feb. 10, 2009 -- a 37-31 setback against Birch Run. Since then, eight senior classes have graduated, and dozens of players have gone through their entire varsity careers without a conference loss.
While it’s not something Frankenmuth players dwell on, it’s also not something they take for granted.
“You don’t just show up and put on your uniform and get the streak,” senior Hannah Karwat said. “We do have to work hard to get the winning streak we have. We work hard in practice.”
Karwat is one of very few Frankenmuth players on this year’s team with varsity experience. She’s a third-year player and first-year starter. Her classmate Lindsey Mertz started several games as a junior and is in her fourth year with the team, but Frankenmuth graduated five of its top six players from a year ago.
The Eagles have done well so far, starting the season 3-1, including earning a 36-34 win this past week against TVC East rival Essexville-Garber to stretch the streak to 97. Their next league games are Wednesday at Bridgeport and home Friday against Millington.
“It’s always an interesting way to start the season when you have kids who are brand new to varsity,” Keller said. “Also, we have those kids that are returning in completely different roles than what they played in the past. We have two seniors who have played, and they’re going from being role players to go-to girls on this year’s team.
“It’s fun. I think it makes for great competition. When you have so many openings for a new team, it’s fun and great competition because everybody is vying for those roles. It does seem to draw out the best competitors.”
Mertz has settled in as a forward, although she has experience as a post player and a guard from her first three seasons and can go back to either if the Eagles need it. Karwat’s role has expanded following the graduation of a pair of 6-foot-plus post players. She’s 5-4½, but appears unfazed by the height disadvantage she faces each night.
Mertz and Karwat are two of five seniors on the team. Among the others is Sara Aldrich, who spent her junior season toward the end of the bench but has worked her way into a starting role, something Keller said he loves to see. Kayla Kueffner and Emily Janson, the Eagles’ other two seniors, are injured and have yet to play this season.
What those seniors may lack in experience, they make up for with leadership.
“Something that our program has valued is leadership,” Mertz said. “We have been doing leadership lunches once a week where we meet and talk about leadership and how serving the other girls on the team and dedicating time would help everyone grow on the team.”
Frankenmuth is matching that leadership with an aggressive style of play, making up for a lack of size.
“We’re making efforts to really attack the paint,” Keller said. “We still get touches inside, but we do it through penetration. In years where we’ve had two 6 footers, we were a high-post, low-post kind of team and we took advantage of that. This year, we’re very guard-oriented.”
Changing his team’s style based on personnel has helped Keller find success in each of his previous 10 seasons as Frankenmuth’s girls coach. The Eagles have won a conference title in each of those seasons, and added five Class B District titles, including at the end of the last two seasons.
Keller said he was fortunate to inherit a great program, one that won the Class B title in 1992 and Class C in 1996 and also owns four MHSAA Finals runner-up finishes.
It’s a tradition, Mertz and Karwat said, that has girls in the community’s youth program pining to put on a Frankenmuth jersey one day. They also grow up knowing what it takes to get that honor.
“When I was younger, a lot of the girls in my grade loved basketball,” Mertz said. “But a lot of girls have quit because they know what’s expected and they know they can’t match that effort. Sometimes we’ll frighten some girls out of the program, but that makes the team we have one of the toughest group of girls because you have to be tough to be a part of it.
“Usually the girls that come out are the ones that are in it for the long haul, and willing to do the dirty work and put in the effort.”
Keller said he wasn’t quite sure what would equal a successful season for this year’s team. Getting better and more consistent each day is his main focus, and he’s optimistic that will happen.
As for the streak, Keller and the Eagles would love for it to survive. If it doesn’t, however, they’ll simply work to start the next one.
“It’s going to come to an end eventually, whether it’s this week or later this season or next season,” Keller said. “When it happens, we’ll just come back the next day and get ready for the next game.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Frankenmuth's Brooklin Karwat drives to the basket against Essexville-Garber last week. (Middle) Eagles coach Tom Keller speaks with Kaylee Kujat during the tightly-contested matchup. (Below) Frankenmuth players celebrate after defeating the Dukes 56-54. (Photos by Chip DeGrace/Eagle Eye Photography.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.