St Mary Shows it 'Can Play with Anybody'
March 14, 2016
By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half
GAYLORD – Jim Myler played basketball at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart.
Still a fan of the Irish, his allegiance will be with another Catholic school tonight as Gaylord St. Mary takes on Sacred Heart in an MHSAA Class D girls basketball Quarterfinal. Myler’s daughters, Bekah and Emily, are key contributors on a 22-3 St. Mary team that beat Frankfort and Fairview last week to capture the Regional championship at Buckley.
“I’m all about my daughters, my family,” Myler said. “They mean the world.”
Bekah Myler, a senior center, averaged 16 points in leading St. Mary to its third Regional title in five years – surprising Frankfort along the way. The Panthers, led by Central Michigan-bound Mackenna Kelly, won the Regional the two previous years and advanced to the Semifinals a year ago.
The Snowbirds will be in an underdog role again Tuesday. Sacred Heart (22-1) beat St. Mary by 12 points in an early January nonleague contest.
“We’re going to go into that (Quarterfinal) game with the same mentality we had against Frankfort – that we can play with anybody,” Bekah Myler said. “We definitely have a fire burning in our hearts.”
Sophomore point guard Alex Hunter agreed.
“Frankfort was one of the best games we’ve played all year, hands down,” she said. “Everything clicked. We definitely have to bring it like that (Tuesday). We’ll have that underdog mentality. We feel we have something to prove. We know we can beat them. We just have to go out there and play hard.”
The Snowbirds breezed past Fairview 56-27 in the Regional Final. St. Mary held the Eagles without a field goal for more than nine minutes to open the game. However, it was the 54-41 win over Frankfort that drew attention, leading St. Mary coach Dan Smith to proclaim, “We’re back.”
It’s not that St. Mary had become a non-factor. The Snowbirds were 18-5 a year ago without a senior in the lineup. But District losses to Bellaire the last two years left an empty feeling. The Snowbirds made amends this season, topping Bellaire in the District Final.
“When I said ‘we’re back’ I meant we’re back deep into the tournament,” Smith said. “That’s where we want to be. That’s our goal every year – to compete for a Regional championship. It’s never easy, but we’ve got some kids that can play basketball.”
Young kids, too. The Snowbirds start two seniors, a junior and two sophomores. The two sophomores, guards Hunter and Averi Bebble, started on varsity as freshmen.
“We knew our sophomores had room to grow, but they’re talented kids,” Smith said. “They play a lot of basketball, probably 100 games a year (between high school and offseason teams). Their growing pains were felt last year. They came into this season in a much better position. Their confidence was at a B level at the start of the season. We’re closing in on the A level right now.”
Smith calls Hunter one of the best guards in northern Michigan.
“She’s very quick, plays outstanding on-the-ball defense and has a sweet shot,” he said. “We’re excited about our backcourt.”
Hunter and Bebble stood out in the Regional. It was their ability to handle Frankfort’s defensive pressure that limited the Panthers’ ability to create turnovers and transition scoring opportunities. The two then applied pressure of their own, attacking the basket on the offensive end.
“Bekah’s tough in the post and usually draws a double team, so that leaves cracks for Averi and Alex to penetrate,” Smith said. “They’re both quick, great ballhandlers, and they’ve got a good first step to the basket. If they see daylight, they’re going to get to the rim. If they get shut down, they’ll dish to Bekah.”
The versatile Myler, who has scored nearly 1,200 career points, is the top option offensively. She can score in the post or on the perimeter.
“She does a lot of good things for us,” Smith said. “She allows our guards to do what they do because she draws a lot of attention in the middle.”
St. Mary showed some depth in the Regional, too. Myler netted 14 points, junior Gabby Schultz 11 and Hunter and Bebble nine each in the win over Frankfort. Myler came back with 18 points, senior Giorgi Nowicki 10, freshman Olivea Jeffers nine and Bebble eight in the title game with Fairview. Sophomore Emily Myler pulled down a team-high nine rebounds while Hunter added five assists in the Regional finale.
The play of the underclassmen, especially the sophomores, has not shocked Bekah Myler, who played on the Snowbirds Quarterfinal team in 2013.
“Those girls have put in so much work during the offseason,” she said. “Basketball is a year-round sport for half of our team. I’m not surprised. They put in the work. They deserve a moment like this.”
The Snowbirds finished second in the Ski Valley Conference to Johannesburg-Lewiston (19-2). It was a close second as St. Mary dropped a pair of two-point games to the Cardinals.
“The fact we lost those two games (to Johannesburg-Lewiston) actually helped us keep our edge,” Smith said. “It was a gift in disguise. It gave us the energy to work towards the rest of the season and point to the tournament because that would be our time.”
That’s proven to be the case. Now, though, the stakes get higher with Sacred Heart looming.
“We’ll have a little bit of a chip on our shoulder,” Smith said. “We’re going to bring everything we’ve got. They’re a great program. I have a lot of respect for (Sacred Heart coach) Damon Brown. He does an excellent job. But our team is far improved. We’re not the same team that we were earlier in the season when we faced them. We’re very excited about the opportunity.”
Bekah Myler will draw a tough defensive assignment, guarding 6-3 Averi Gamble, her AAU teammate during the offseason. Gamble scored 24 points, grabbed 24 rebounds and blocked four shots in Sacred Heart’s Regional championship win over Portland St. Patrick.
The Snowbirds would like to reverse a recent trend. St. Mary narrowly lost its last two Quarterfinal appearances – 42-40 to Climax-Scotts in 2013 and 59-57 to Crystal Falls Forest Park in 2012.
“It’s a pretty big deal for us to be here right now,” Bebble said. “But we want to break through (that barrier) and get to the Breslin.”
Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Gaylord St. Mary celebrates its Regional Final win last week. (Middle) Alex Hunter sets up the offense for the Snowbirds against Frankfort during the Regional Semifinal. (Top photo by Denny Chase; middle photo courtesy of Gaylord St. Mary athletic department.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.