Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 14, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Detroit is only two wins away for Michigan’s remaining 11-player teams.
But 8-player semifinalists need just one more win to complete a “March to Marquette” – and we’re flipping our usual format by leading off this week’s preview with a look at those four games.
All matchups below are Friday or Saturday, as noted. The 8-player winners will move on to Nov. 23 championship games at The Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University. The 11-player Regional champs this week will play next in neutral-site Semifinals, with those locations and times announced by Sunday morning.
A total of 15 games will be streamed either by Fox Sports Detroit's Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv this weekend; click for links and listings.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
8-Player
Division 1
Kingston (9-2) at Suttons Bay (11-0), Saturday
Only four years ago, when current seniors were freshman, Suttons Bay had to cancel its final seven games for lack of healthy players. The Norsemen have made quite a return along with the move to 8-player, going from seven to nine to 11 wins over the last three seasons, respectively. Luke Mikesell keys a balanced attack with 1,231 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing and eight more scores receiving. Kingston also is celebrating a historic run, making the Semifinals for the first time since 1996. A dominating run game deserves much of the credit, with Caleb Goss (1,470 yards/15 TDs) and Jake DeLong (1,304/20) leading the way and quarterback Aaron Koehler running for 10 touchdowns and throwing for 15 more scores.
Morrice (10-1) at Colon (11-0), Saturday
The reigning Division 1 champion Orioles might be facing their strongest opponent of the last two seasons – including a year ago when it defeated the Magi 40-8 in a Semifinal. Colon is outscoring opponents 53-5 on average, led by dual threat quarterback Phillip Alva (792 yards/16 TDs rushing, 876 yards/17 TDs passing) and top rusher Brandon Crawford (1,404 yards/22 TDs rushing, 11.4 yds./carry). Morrice graduated some significant standouts from last season, but quarterback Jonathan Carpenter has picked things up quickly as the new starter at his spot with 1,413 yards and 21 touchdowns rushing and eight touchdown passes. Morrice’s only loss of the last two years was in Week 8 to Crystal Falls Forest Park, and it handed Deckerville its only loss this season last week.
Division 2
Hillman (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Friday
Pickford was last season’s Division 1 runner-up with a junior-filled lineup, and that group has the team on the verge of returning to the Superior Dome. Jimmy Storey was the Associated Press’ 8-player Player of the Year in 2018 and is leading the return charge that last week included avenging the team’s lone loss, to Powers North Central. Hillman is in the midst of its 14th straight playoff trip, with only the last two in 8-player, and playing in its first Semifinal in either format. Lead rusher Gunner Mellingen (949 yards/16 TDs) has taken over even more during the playoffs, last week running for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-44 win over Cedarville.
Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Portland St. Patrick (11-0), Saturday
Portland St. Patrick was among early movers to 8-player and will play in its third-straight Semifinal and fourth since making the format switch in 2012. Somewhat quietly, the Shamrocks rarely have been challenged this fall – their closest win was 42-24 in Week 7 over 2018 Division 2 runner-up Onekama. Climax-Scotts is enjoying a 17th-consecutive playoff run, but this one in 8-player for the first time. The Panthers will enter their first Semifinal since 2007 after defeating Onekama last week and with the experience of rumbling through a tough southwestern region, with its losses to undefeated Division 1 semifinalist Colon and Martin, which suffered its lone loss last week to the Magi in a Regional Final. Conner Gibson (1,342 yards/16 TDs rushing) leads an offense that has run for more than 3,000 yards.
11-Player
Division 1
West Bloomfield (10-1) at Belleville (11-0), Saturday
West Bloomfield has given Belleville one of its few close games during a two-year 23-1 run, coming within 13-10 of the Tigers in last year’s Regional Final. Another defensive showdown might be to the Lakers’ favor, as the difference this time likely will come when Belleville has the ball. The Tigers have broken 500 points and average 46 per game, while West Bloomfield is giving up only 11 and has surrendered a combined 28 points over its last six games.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville (8-3) at Brighton (9-2), Utica Eisenhower (9-2) at Davison (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (7-4) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (7-4).
Division 2
Port Huron (8-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-3), Friday
Seaholm is looking to add its first Regional title since 1997 to its first District title since 2001 won last week, while Port Huron’s last District title was a little more recent (2011) but the farthest the Big Reds have advanced. Port Huron avenged regular-season losses the last two weeks to Port Huron Northern and St. Clair Shores Lakeview, and Seaholm did the same last week in its rematch with Birmingham Groves. The Maples are enjoying their most potent offense arguably ever (36 ppg) and could set the pace, although the Big Reds have shown they’re capable of keeping up.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (9-2) at Portage Northern (10-1), Livonia Churchill (7-4) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Detroit U-D Jesuit (8-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2).
Division 3
River Rouge (10-1) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-1), Saturday
After two straight seasons of sub-.500 football, the host Eaglets have rounded back into the form that carried them to seven MHSAA Finals trips in eight seasons from 2009-16. Their only loss was Week 7 to Detroit Catholic Central, and they avenged it two weeks later and have gone on to break 50 points in both playoff wins so far. But River Rouge won’t be fazed as it’s also beaten DCC this fall and is a three-point Week 1 loss to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central from undefeated. The Panthers’ defense has been particularly impressive; after finishing last season with a 7-6 first-round playoff loss to eventual Division 3 champion King, Rouge this fall is giving up only 7.8 points per game.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Allen Park (9-2) at Chelsea (11-0). SATURDAY East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Muskegon (11-0), DeWitt (9-2) at Edwardsburg (11-0).
Division 4
Milan (11-0) at Detroit Country Day (11-0), Saturday
Speaking of shutdown defenses, Country Day is giving up 5.5 points per game while facing a schedule that so far has included seven playoff teams as the Yellowjackets have made their longest run since finishing Division 4 runner-up in 2016. Milan is pretty strong on that side of the ball as well, giving up just under 16 ppg as it seeks to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Both also have had to win close this fall – Country Day got past Harper Woods by five last week, and Milan has two one-point victories – and it will be interesting to see if that experience comes into play as these two play one of two games between undefeated teams this week.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-3) at Paw Paw (10-1), Flint Powers Catholic (9-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (10-1). SATURDAY Cadillac (7-4) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1).
Division 5
Kalamazoo United (7-4) at Lansing Catholic (10-1), Friday
Neither of these teams was given enough credit earlier this season as opponents appeared to be standing in their way. But Lansing Catholic finally got past nemesis Portland last week for the first time since 2015, and the Cougars have a defense (giving up 13 ppg) to match their always high-octane scoring attack (41 ppg). United with a new coach and mostly new offensive stars opened this season 0-3 but have won seven of eight since including three straight over league champions. The Titans may not be scoring at last year’s program-record pace, but have given up only 14 points per game during the 7-1 run.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Dearborn Heights Robichaud (9-2) at Detroit Denby (9-2). SATURDAY Freeland (9-2) at Kingsley (11-0), Saginaw Swan Valley (8-3) at Almont (11-0).
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (10-1) at Calumet (10-1), Saturday
A familiar opponent stands in the way of Calumet potentially reaching the Semifinals for the first time. Just as they did in 2016, the Copper Kings will be hosting Maple City Glen Lake in a Regional Final – and last time, Glen Lake won 14-0 and ended up reaching Ford Field and finishing Division 6 runner-up. The Copper Kings are giving up just a few more points three years later, but scoring a lot more and at the same pace as the Lakers, who have broken 30 points eight of the last nine weeks.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Onsted (9-2) at Hillsdale (11-0). SATURDAY Sanford Meridian (8-3) at Montague (9-2), Montrose (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) at New Lothrop (11-0), Friday
With the last three Division 7 championships between these contenders, and both undefeated and barely scored upon this season, this small-school game will be getting some big attention. New Lothrop defeated the Pirates 26-14 in last year’s Regional title game on the way to winning its first Finals championship since 2006. The Hornets have outscored their opponents on average 46-7 against a schedule that included previously-unbeaten Beaverton last week, Division 6 still-contending Montrose in league play and recently-eliminated Division 5 Frankenmuth. P-W has given up 21 points this season, and none over the last three weeks. The Pirates made a statement early with a Week 1 shutout over Division 8 reigning champion Reading and haven’t been challenged since, with a 41-7 win over another Division 8 contender Fowler among highlights. The Pirates score in bunches too, averaging nearly 43 ppg.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Schoolcraft (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Traverse City St. Francis (8-3) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Detroit Loyola (6-4) at Cass City (10-1).
Division 8
Ishpeming (9-2) at Beal City (10-1), Saturday
The Aggies’ struggles of the last two seasons should be pushed farther into distant memory as they’ve come all the way back to the verge of what would be a first Semifinal since 2014. A Week 8 loss to McBain aside, Beal City has followed a defense giving up just 11 points per game as it’s rebounded from a combined 6-12 record over the last two years and defeated previously-unbeaten Johannesburg-Lewiston last week for a District title. Ishpeming is playing for its first Semifinal berth since 2015 after narrowly missing in a close Regional loss last year to Breckenridge. The Hematites have won six straight since dropping two in a row against playoff teams Westwood and Negaunee in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-1) at Reading (10-1). SATURDAY Saginaw Nouvel (7-4) at Ubly (9-2), Fowler (10-1) at Royal Oak Shrine (9-2).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Hillman quarterback Nash Steinke turns upfield during last week's Regional Final win over Cedarville. (Photo by Sports in Motion.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.