Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 14, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Detroit is only two wins away for Michigan’s remaining 11-player teams.
But 8-player semifinalists need just one more win to complete a “March to Marquette” – and we’re flipping our usual format by leading off this week’s preview with a look at those four games.
All matchups below are Friday or Saturday, as noted. The 8-player winners will move on to Nov. 23 championship games at The Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University. The 11-player Regional champs this week will play next in neutral-site Semifinals, with those locations and times announced by Sunday morning.
A total of 15 games will be streamed either by Fox Sports Detroit's Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv this weekend; click for links and listings.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
8-Player
Division 1
Kingston (9-2) at Suttons Bay (11-0), Saturday
Only four years ago, when current seniors were freshman, Suttons Bay had to cancel its final seven games for lack of healthy players. The Norsemen have made quite a return along with the move to 8-player, going from seven to nine to 11 wins over the last three seasons, respectively. Luke Mikesell keys a balanced attack with 1,231 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing and eight more scores receiving. Kingston also is celebrating a historic run, making the Semifinals for the first time since 1996. A dominating run game deserves much of the credit, with Caleb Goss (1,470 yards/15 TDs) and Jake DeLong (1,304/20) leading the way and quarterback Aaron Koehler running for 10 touchdowns and throwing for 15 more scores.
Morrice (10-1) at Colon (11-0), Saturday
The reigning Division 1 champion Orioles might be facing their strongest opponent of the last two seasons – including a year ago when it defeated the Magi 40-8 in a Semifinal. Colon is outscoring opponents 53-5 on average, led by dual threat quarterback Phillip Alva (792 yards/16 TDs rushing, 876 yards/17 TDs passing) and top rusher Brandon Crawford (1,404 yards/22 TDs rushing, 11.4 yds./carry). Morrice graduated some significant standouts from last season, but quarterback Jonathan Carpenter has picked things up quickly as the new starter at his spot with 1,413 yards and 21 touchdowns rushing and eight touchdown passes. Morrice’s only loss of the last two years was in Week 8 to Crystal Falls Forest Park, and it handed Deckerville its only loss this season last week.
Division 2
Hillman (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Friday
Pickford was last season’s Division 1 runner-up with a junior-filled lineup, and that group has the team on the verge of returning to the Superior Dome. Jimmy Storey was the Associated Press’ 8-player Player of the Year in 2018 and is leading the return charge that last week included avenging the team’s lone loss, to Powers North Central. Hillman is in the midst of its 14th straight playoff trip, with only the last two in 8-player, and playing in its first Semifinal in either format. Lead rusher Gunner Mellingen (949 yards/16 TDs) has taken over even more during the playoffs, last week running for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-44 win over Cedarville.
Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Portland St. Patrick (11-0), Saturday
Portland St. Patrick was among early movers to 8-player and will play in its third-straight Semifinal and fourth since making the format switch in 2012. Somewhat quietly, the Shamrocks rarely have been challenged this fall – their closest win was 42-24 in Week 7 over 2018 Division 2 runner-up Onekama. Climax-Scotts is enjoying a 17th-consecutive playoff run, but this one in 8-player for the first time. The Panthers will enter their first Semifinal since 2007 after defeating Onekama last week and with the experience of rumbling through a tough southwestern region, with its losses to undefeated Division 1 semifinalist Colon and Martin, which suffered its lone loss last week to the Magi in a Regional Final. Conner Gibson (1,342 yards/16 TDs rushing) leads an offense that has run for more than 3,000 yards.
11-Player
Division 1
West Bloomfield (10-1) at Belleville (11-0), Saturday
West Bloomfield has given Belleville one of its few close games during a two-year 23-1 run, coming within 13-10 of the Tigers in last year’s Regional Final. Another defensive showdown might be to the Lakers’ favor, as the difference this time likely will come when Belleville has the ball. The Tigers have broken 500 points and average 46 per game, while West Bloomfield is giving up only 11 and has surrendered a combined 28 points over its last six games.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville (8-3) at Brighton (9-2), Utica Eisenhower (9-2) at Davison (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (7-4) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (7-4).
Division 2
Port Huron (8-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-3), Friday
Seaholm is looking to add its first Regional title since 1997 to its first District title since 2001 won last week, while Port Huron’s last District title was a little more recent (2011) but the farthest the Big Reds have advanced. Port Huron avenged regular-season losses the last two weeks to Port Huron Northern and St. Clair Shores Lakeview, and Seaholm did the same last week in its rematch with Birmingham Groves. The Maples are enjoying their most potent offense arguably ever (36 ppg) and could set the pace, although the Big Reds have shown they’re capable of keeping up.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (9-2) at Portage Northern (10-1), Livonia Churchill (7-4) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Detroit U-D Jesuit (8-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2).
Division 3
River Rouge (10-1) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-1), Saturday
After two straight seasons of sub-.500 football, the host Eaglets have rounded back into the form that carried them to seven MHSAA Finals trips in eight seasons from 2009-16. Their only loss was Week 7 to Detroit Catholic Central, and they avenged it two weeks later and have gone on to break 50 points in both playoff wins so far. But River Rouge won’t be fazed as it’s also beaten DCC this fall and is a three-point Week 1 loss to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central from undefeated. The Panthers’ defense has been particularly impressive; after finishing last season with a 7-6 first-round playoff loss to eventual Division 3 champion King, Rouge this fall is giving up only 7.8 points per game.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Allen Park (9-2) at Chelsea (11-0). SATURDAY East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Muskegon (11-0), DeWitt (9-2) at Edwardsburg (11-0).
Division 4
Milan (11-0) at Detroit Country Day (11-0), Saturday
Speaking of shutdown defenses, Country Day is giving up 5.5 points per game while facing a schedule that so far has included seven playoff teams as the Yellowjackets have made their longest run since finishing Division 4 runner-up in 2016. Milan is pretty strong on that side of the ball as well, giving up just under 16 ppg as it seeks to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Both also have had to win close this fall – Country Day got past Harper Woods by five last week, and Milan has two one-point victories – and it will be interesting to see if that experience comes into play as these two play one of two games between undefeated teams this week.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-3) at Paw Paw (10-1), Flint Powers Catholic (9-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (10-1). SATURDAY Cadillac (7-4) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1).
Division 5
Kalamazoo United (7-4) at Lansing Catholic (10-1), Friday
Neither of these teams was given enough credit earlier this season as opponents appeared to be standing in their way. But Lansing Catholic finally got past nemesis Portland last week for the first time since 2015, and the Cougars have a defense (giving up 13 ppg) to match their always high-octane scoring attack (41 ppg). United with a new coach and mostly new offensive stars opened this season 0-3 but have won seven of eight since including three straight over league champions. The Titans may not be scoring at last year’s program-record pace, but have given up only 14 points per game during the 7-1 run.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Dearborn Heights Robichaud (9-2) at Detroit Denby (9-2). SATURDAY Freeland (9-2) at Kingsley (11-0), Saginaw Swan Valley (8-3) at Almont (11-0).
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (10-1) at Calumet (10-1), Saturday
A familiar opponent stands in the way of Calumet potentially reaching the Semifinals for the first time. Just as they did in 2016, the Copper Kings will be hosting Maple City Glen Lake in a Regional Final – and last time, Glen Lake won 14-0 and ended up reaching Ford Field and finishing Division 6 runner-up. The Copper Kings are giving up just a few more points three years later, but scoring a lot more and at the same pace as the Lakers, who have broken 30 points eight of the last nine weeks.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Onsted (9-2) at Hillsdale (11-0). SATURDAY Sanford Meridian (8-3) at Montague (9-2), Montrose (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) at New Lothrop (11-0), Friday
With the last three Division 7 championships between these contenders, and both undefeated and barely scored upon this season, this small-school game will be getting some big attention. New Lothrop defeated the Pirates 26-14 in last year’s Regional title game on the way to winning its first Finals championship since 2006. The Hornets have outscored their opponents on average 46-7 against a schedule that included previously-unbeaten Beaverton last week, Division 6 still-contending Montrose in league play and recently-eliminated Division 5 Frankenmuth. P-W has given up 21 points this season, and none over the last three weeks. The Pirates made a statement early with a Week 1 shutout over Division 8 reigning champion Reading and haven’t been challenged since, with a 41-7 win over another Division 8 contender Fowler among highlights. The Pirates score in bunches too, averaging nearly 43 ppg.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Schoolcraft (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Traverse City St. Francis (8-3) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Detroit Loyola (6-4) at Cass City (10-1).
Division 8
Ishpeming (9-2) at Beal City (10-1), Saturday
The Aggies’ struggles of the last two seasons should be pushed farther into distant memory as they’ve come all the way back to the verge of what would be a first Semifinal since 2014. A Week 8 loss to McBain aside, Beal City has followed a defense giving up just 11 points per game as it’s rebounded from a combined 6-12 record over the last two years and defeated previously-unbeaten Johannesburg-Lewiston last week for a District title. Ishpeming is playing for its first Semifinal berth since 2015 after narrowly missing in a close Regional loss last year to Breckenridge. The Hematites have won six straight since dropping two in a row against playoff teams Westwood and Negaunee in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-1) at Reading (10-1). SATURDAY Saginaw Nouvel (7-4) at Ubly (9-2), Fowler (10-1) at Royal Oak Shrine (9-2).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Hillman quarterback Nash Steinke turns upfield during last week's Regional Final win over Cedarville. (Photo by Sports in Motion.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.