Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 14, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Detroit is only two wins away for Michigan’s remaining 11-player teams.
But 8-player semifinalists need just one more win to complete a “March to Marquette” – and we’re flipping our usual format by leading off this week’s preview with a look at those four games.
All matchups below are Friday or Saturday, as noted. The 8-player winners will move on to Nov. 23 championship games at The Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University. The 11-player Regional champs this week will play next in neutral-site Semifinals, with those locations and times announced by Sunday morning.
A total of 15 games will be streamed either by Fox Sports Detroit's Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv this weekend; click for links and listings.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
8-Player
Division 1
Kingston (9-2) at Suttons Bay (11-0), Saturday
Only four years ago, when current seniors were freshman, Suttons Bay had to cancel its final seven games for lack of healthy players. The Norsemen have made quite a return along with the move to 8-player, going from seven to nine to 11 wins over the last three seasons, respectively. Luke Mikesell keys a balanced attack with 1,231 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing and eight more scores receiving. Kingston also is celebrating a historic run, making the Semifinals for the first time since 1996. A dominating run game deserves much of the credit, with Caleb Goss (1,470 yards/15 TDs) and Jake DeLong (1,304/20) leading the way and quarterback Aaron Koehler running for 10 touchdowns and throwing for 15 more scores.
Morrice (10-1) at Colon (11-0), Saturday
The reigning Division 1 champion Orioles might be facing their strongest opponent of the last two seasons – including a year ago when it defeated the Magi 40-8 in a Semifinal. Colon is outscoring opponents 53-5 on average, led by dual threat quarterback Phillip Alva (792 yards/16 TDs rushing, 876 yards/17 TDs passing) and top rusher Brandon Crawford (1,404 yards/22 TDs rushing, 11.4 yds./carry). Morrice graduated some significant standouts from last season, but quarterback Jonathan Carpenter has picked things up quickly as the new starter at his spot with 1,413 yards and 21 touchdowns rushing and eight touchdown passes. Morrice’s only loss of the last two years was in Week 8 to Crystal Falls Forest Park, and it handed Deckerville its only loss this season last week.
Division 2
Hillman (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Friday
Pickford was last season’s Division 1 runner-up with a junior-filled lineup, and that group has the team on the verge of returning to the Superior Dome. Jimmy Storey was the Associated Press’ 8-player Player of the Year in 2018 and is leading the return charge that last week included avenging the team’s lone loss, to Powers North Central. Hillman is in the midst of its 14th straight playoff trip, with only the last two in 8-player, and playing in its first Semifinal in either format. Lead rusher Gunner Mellingen (949 yards/16 TDs) has taken over even more during the playoffs, last week running for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-44 win over Cedarville.
Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Portland St. Patrick (11-0), Saturday
Portland St. Patrick was among early movers to 8-player and will play in its third-straight Semifinal and fourth since making the format switch in 2012. Somewhat quietly, the Shamrocks rarely have been challenged this fall – their closest win was 42-24 in Week 7 over 2018 Division 2 runner-up Onekama. Climax-Scotts is enjoying a 17th-consecutive playoff run, but this one in 8-player for the first time. The Panthers will enter their first Semifinal since 2007 after defeating Onekama last week and with the experience of rumbling through a tough southwestern region, with its losses to undefeated Division 1 semifinalist Colon and Martin, which suffered its lone loss last week to the Magi in a Regional Final. Conner Gibson (1,342 yards/16 TDs rushing) leads an offense that has run for more than 3,000 yards.
11-Player
Division 1
West Bloomfield (10-1) at Belleville (11-0), Saturday
West Bloomfield has given Belleville one of its few close games during a two-year 23-1 run, coming within 13-10 of the Tigers in last year’s Regional Final. Another defensive showdown might be to the Lakers’ favor, as the difference this time likely will come when Belleville has the ball. The Tigers have broken 500 points and average 46 per game, while West Bloomfield is giving up only 11 and has surrendered a combined 28 points over its last six games.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville (8-3) at Brighton (9-2), Utica Eisenhower (9-2) at Davison (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (7-4) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (7-4).
Division 2
Port Huron (8-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-3), Friday
Seaholm is looking to add its first Regional title since 1997 to its first District title since 2001 won last week, while Port Huron’s last District title was a little more recent (2011) but the farthest the Big Reds have advanced. Port Huron avenged regular-season losses the last two weeks to Port Huron Northern and St. Clair Shores Lakeview, and Seaholm did the same last week in its rematch with Birmingham Groves. The Maples are enjoying their most potent offense arguably ever (36 ppg) and could set the pace, although the Big Reds have shown they’re capable of keeping up.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (9-2) at Portage Northern (10-1), Livonia Churchill (7-4) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Detroit U-D Jesuit (8-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2).
Division 3
River Rouge (10-1) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-1), Saturday
After two straight seasons of sub-.500 football, the host Eaglets have rounded back into the form that carried them to seven MHSAA Finals trips in eight seasons from 2009-16. Their only loss was Week 7 to Detroit Catholic Central, and they avenged it two weeks later and have gone on to break 50 points in both playoff wins so far. But River Rouge won’t be fazed as it’s also beaten DCC this fall and is a three-point Week 1 loss to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central from undefeated. The Panthers’ defense has been particularly impressive; after finishing last season with a 7-6 first-round playoff loss to eventual Division 3 champion King, Rouge this fall is giving up only 7.8 points per game.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Allen Park (9-2) at Chelsea (11-0). SATURDAY East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Muskegon (11-0), DeWitt (9-2) at Edwardsburg (11-0).
Division 4
Milan (11-0) at Detroit Country Day (11-0), Saturday
Speaking of shutdown defenses, Country Day is giving up 5.5 points per game while facing a schedule that so far has included seven playoff teams as the Yellowjackets have made their longest run since finishing Division 4 runner-up in 2016. Milan is pretty strong on that side of the ball as well, giving up just under 16 ppg as it seeks to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Both also have had to win close this fall – Country Day got past Harper Woods by five last week, and Milan has two one-point victories – and it will be interesting to see if that experience comes into play as these two play one of two games between undefeated teams this week.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-3) at Paw Paw (10-1), Flint Powers Catholic (9-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (10-1). SATURDAY Cadillac (7-4) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1).
Division 5
Kalamazoo United (7-4) at Lansing Catholic (10-1), Friday
Neither of these teams was given enough credit earlier this season as opponents appeared to be standing in their way. But Lansing Catholic finally got past nemesis Portland last week for the first time since 2015, and the Cougars have a defense (giving up 13 ppg) to match their always high-octane scoring attack (41 ppg). United with a new coach and mostly new offensive stars opened this season 0-3 but have won seven of eight since including three straight over league champions. The Titans may not be scoring at last year’s program-record pace, but have given up only 14 points per game during the 7-1 run.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Dearborn Heights Robichaud (9-2) at Detroit Denby (9-2). SATURDAY Freeland (9-2) at Kingsley (11-0), Saginaw Swan Valley (8-3) at Almont (11-0).
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (10-1) at Calumet (10-1), Saturday
A familiar opponent stands in the way of Calumet potentially reaching the Semifinals for the first time. Just as they did in 2016, the Copper Kings will be hosting Maple City Glen Lake in a Regional Final – and last time, Glen Lake won 14-0 and ended up reaching Ford Field and finishing Division 6 runner-up. The Copper Kings are giving up just a few more points three years later, but scoring a lot more and at the same pace as the Lakers, who have broken 30 points eight of the last nine weeks.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Onsted (9-2) at Hillsdale (11-0). SATURDAY Sanford Meridian (8-3) at Montague (9-2), Montrose (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) at New Lothrop (11-0), Friday
With the last three Division 7 championships between these contenders, and both undefeated and barely scored upon this season, this small-school game will be getting some big attention. New Lothrop defeated the Pirates 26-14 in last year’s Regional title game on the way to winning its first Finals championship since 2006. The Hornets have outscored their opponents on average 46-7 against a schedule that included previously-unbeaten Beaverton last week, Division 6 still-contending Montrose in league play and recently-eliminated Division 5 Frankenmuth. P-W has given up 21 points this season, and none over the last three weeks. The Pirates made a statement early with a Week 1 shutout over Division 8 reigning champion Reading and haven’t been challenged since, with a 41-7 win over another Division 8 contender Fowler among highlights. The Pirates score in bunches too, averaging nearly 43 ppg.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Schoolcraft (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Traverse City St. Francis (8-3) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Detroit Loyola (6-4) at Cass City (10-1).
Division 8
Ishpeming (9-2) at Beal City (10-1), Saturday
The Aggies’ struggles of the last two seasons should be pushed farther into distant memory as they’ve come all the way back to the verge of what would be a first Semifinal since 2014. A Week 8 loss to McBain aside, Beal City has followed a defense giving up just 11 points per game as it’s rebounded from a combined 6-12 record over the last two years and defeated previously-unbeaten Johannesburg-Lewiston last week for a District title. Ishpeming is playing for its first Semifinal berth since 2015 after narrowly missing in a close Regional loss last year to Breckenridge. The Hematites have won six straight since dropping two in a row against playoff teams Westwood and Negaunee in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-1) at Reading (10-1). SATURDAY Saginaw Nouvel (7-4) at Ubly (9-2), Fowler (10-1) at Royal Oak Shrine (9-2).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Hillman quarterback Nash Steinke turns upfield during last week's Regional Final win over Cedarville. (Photo by Sports in Motion.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.