Drive for Detroit: Week 2 Preview

August 31, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

After an opening weekend highlighted by showcases in the Detroit and Ann Arbor areas, Michigan high school football fans should look west, north and really far north for the most colossal matchups of Week 2.

Arguably the top teams in the Lansing and Grand Rapids areas and all of 8-player football will face off as the most intriguing games of this week’s Drive for Detroit, powered by MI Student Aid. A number of leagues also begin play, with matchups in at least three conferences likely playing a part in which favorite eventually is crowned champion.

Check out our previews below – and visit the MHSAA.com Score Center tonight and all weekend for scores as they are reported and links to updated schedules and standings.

Bay & Thumb

Almont (1-0) at Algonac (1-0)

The water should be boiling for this Blue Water Area Conference opener. Rewind to Week 6 of last season, when upstart Algonac broke reigning league champ Almont’s 16-game BWAC winning streak with a 21-7 victory. Algonac went on share the league title with Richmond (with Almont a win short of also sharing), then beat Almont again, 13-0, in their Division 5 District Final. Both earned impressive victories last week, Algonac over Marine City and Almont over Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary.

Others that caught my eye: Chesaning (1-0) at Freeland (1-0), Midland Dow (1-0) at Bay City Central (1-0), Harbor Beach (1-0) at Beaverton (1-0), Flint Powers Catholic (0-1) at Saginaw Heritage (1-0).

Greater Detroit

Allen Park (1-0) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (1-0)

Allen Park shared the Downriver League championship last season by winning its final seven regular-season games after falling to Roosevelt 23-14 in Week 2. The Bears, meanwhile, ended up missing out on any share of the league title by going on to lose two games by a combined four points. Roosevelt has won seven of eight meetings against Allen Park – including once in the playoffs – since the two became league foes in 2009.

Others that caught my eye: Walled Lake Western (1-0) at Canton (0-1), Utica Eisenhower (1-0) at Macomb Dakota (1-0), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (1-0) at Romeo (0-1), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (0-1) at Detroit Loyola (1-0) on Friday.

Mid-Michigan

DeWitt (1-0) at Grand Ledge (0-1)

Lansing-area fans have been anticipating this matchup not just since schedules were announced for this season, but for many years. These two have been the most successful programs in the Capital Area Activities Conference for most over the last two decades and nearly are neighbors, although Grand Ledge has about 700 more students. The Comets made the Division 1 Semifinals a year ago; DeWitt’s most recent of five MHSAA Finals appearances came in 2013. Both are led by standout quarterbacks – DeWitt by Will Nagel and the Comets by Nolan Bird – although playmakers JD Ross and Antonio Rush, respectively, could be the difference-makers for those teams on offense. DeWitt dominated at Linden last week, while Grand Ledge fell a score short at Hudsonville.

Others that caught my eye: Lansing Catholic (1-0) at Lansing Everett (0-1), Dansville (1-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (1-0), Hillsdale (1-0) at Portland (1-0), Davison (1-0) at Mount Pleasant (0-1) on Friday.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Maple City Glen Lake (1-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) on Friday

St. Francis is fresh off a trip to the Upper Peninsula and a 40-14 win over frequent playoff team Marquette. Glen Lake certainly is a more familiar opponent – the teams were in the same division of the Northern Michigan Football Conference during the league’s first two seasons, although they are in different divisions this fall. Glen Lake made headway in its two matchups with St. Francis last season, coming off a 41-7 Week 7 loss to fall only 21-3 in a Division 6 playoff opener. A four-touchdown win over Kingsley last week should be a good sign of things to come for the Lakers.

Others that caught my eye: Charlevoix (1-0) at Boyne City (0-1), Lincoln Alcona (0-1) at Hillman (0-1), Whittemore-Prescott (1-0) at Tawas (1-0), Central Lake (1-0) at Frankfort (1-0).

Southwest Corridor

Edwardsburg (1-0) at Vicksburg (1-0)

Although Edwardsburg won this matchup 58-25 a year ago, the fact remains that Vicksburg is still the only team to hand the Eddies a regular-season loss over the last three seasons – winning 16-14 in 2014. That’s enough to make this intriguing. But add in a solid 17-7 win for the Bulldogs over Dowagiac last week, and it appears they’re up to the task of challenging the Wolverine Conference frontrunners again.

Others that caught my eye: Marshall (0-1) at Coldwater (1-0), Schoolcraft (1-0) at Watervliet (1-0), Niles (1-0) at Mattawan (0-1), Kalamazoo Central (0-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (1-0).

Southeast & Border

Morenci (1-0) at Hudson (1-0)

An early key moment in Morenci’s turnaround over the last three seasons was a 2014 win over the rival Tigers, who had mostly dominated their annual game over the previous decade and a half. Morenci made it two straight on Hudson by winning 26-20 last year and is coming off a solid 34-7 win over 2015 playoff qualifier Pittsford. The Tigers are coming off their first sub-.500 finish last year since 2006 and have plenty to prove – and also to benefit from by winning this one with an increasingly tough Lenawee County Athletic Association schedule ahead.

Others that caught my eye: New Haven (1-0) at Ida (1-0), Milan (1-0) at Flat Rock (1-0) on Friday, New Boston Huron (1-0) at Carleton Airport (1-0) on Friday, Ypsilanti Community (0-0) at Monroe (0-1) on Friday.

West Michigan

Lowell (1-0) at Rockford (0-1) on Friday

After three seasons off, these Grand Rapids-area powers will face off again; Lowell won both the 2011 and 2012 meetings when the teams first brought this matchup back after nearly four decades. Aside from these being two of the best-known programs in the state, last week’s events should draw a few more statewide eyes west. Lowell, the reigning Division 2 runner-up thanks to a last-play touchdown in the 2015 Final by Detroit Martin Luther King, blazed out of the gates with a 36-19 win over Warren DeLaSalle. Rockford, meanwhile, was forced to forfeit to Saline last week because an illness sidelined a good portion of the team. The Rams made the Division 1 Regional Finals last fall.

Others that caught my eye: Benton Harbor (1-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (1-0), at Hudsonville; St. Ignace (1-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (1-0), Zeeland West (1-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0), Caledonia (1-0) at Grand Rapids Christian (1-0) on Friday

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (1-0) at Calumet (1-0)

Calumet is one of the most consistently solid teams on either peninsula, with seven or more wins nine of the last 11 seasons. And the Copper Kings broke through one of their toughest annual obstacles at the end of last fall, downing Negaunee 24-14 in a Division 6 playoff opener after losing all five of the teams’ recent meetings. Still, the Miners’ 7-3 finish last fall was similarly solid but a little deceptive – those three losses came over the final four weeks and by a combined 17 points. This could be a statement win for a team looking to take those next small steps back to elite.        

Others that caught my eye: Petoskey (0-1) at Escanaba (1-0), Gwinn (1-0) at Iron Mountain (1-0), Bessemer Gogebic (1-0) at Bark River-Harris (1-0) on Friday, Newberry (1-0) at Munising (0-1) on Friday.

8-Player

Powers North Central (1-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (1-0) on Friday

Forest Park, 11-player until this fall, has taken a deep dive immediately into 8-player football, opening up last week against annual power Rapid River (and winning 64-22) and now hosting reigning champion Powers North Central. The Jets opened last week just as explosively as they played all of last season, putting up 60 on Luck, Wis. This one could be telling in how the Western Eight Conference standings eventually shake out – and also indicate where Forest Park sits in relation to the 8-player elite.

Others that caught my eye: Posen (1-0) at Cedarville (1-0), Lawrence (1-0) at Morrice (1-0).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Kalamazoo Central, here on offense against St. Joseph last week at Michigan Stadium, will face Stevensville Lakeshore seeking its first win this season. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.