Drive for Detroit: Week 5 Preview
September 26, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
With 600 high school teams in Michigan and good games always to be found, just about any week could be called “Rivalry Week” as the term is often hyped at the college and pro levels.
But this week in this state is a little more special this fall.
A number of the best rivalries – longtime or emerging – will be played out over the next two days, and we offer a glance at a number of those games below. You’ll have a chance to check out a bunch, as seven of the games mentioned in this preview are among the 32 that will be broadcast live on MHSAA.tv – click here for the schedule.
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Bay & Thumb
Grand Blanc (4-0) at Davison (4-0)
These teams entered this game last season under almost identical circumstances – and Davison exited with a 49-7 win on the way to finishing second to Lapeer in the Saginaw Valley League Blue. Those three appear to be the main title contenders again, and Davison has won its first two Blue games by a combined 104-0 while Grand Blanc also opened league play last week with a shutout. Last season’s loss started a rough finish for the Bobcats, and they face a tough regular-season second half again with Lapeer, Flint Powers Catholic and Saline coming up. Obviously, a win tonight would provide a sizable lift heading into that string.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Harbor Beach (4-0) at Ubly (4-0), Saginaw Swan Valley (3-1) at Frankenmuth (4-0), Fenton (3-1) at Flint Kearsley (4-0), Breckenridge (3-1) at Merrill (3-1).
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota (3-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-0)
One of the best rivalries in the state again matches up the teams tied for first in the Macomb Area Conference Red. Chippewa Valley is riding an 18-game winning streak after claiming last season’s Division 1 championship and has won four straight over Dakota – with victories over the Cougars during the playoffs as well the last two seasons. Dakota’s only slip-up this fall came Week 1 against still-unbeaten Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, and it will be interesting to see how this meeting shakes out. The Big Reds won by only seven, 24-17, the first time they played in 2018 but 51-10 in the District Final rematch.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY West Bloomfield (3-1) at Lake Orion (4-0), Brownstown Woodhaven (4-0) at Allen Park (3-1), North Farmington (4-0) at Auburn Hills Avondale (3-1), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (2-2) at Orchard Lake St. Mary's (4-0).
Mid-Michigan
Portland (4-0) at Lansing Catholic (4-0)
This one gets top billing by just a smidge over East Lansing/DeWitt, as Portland can claim supremacy in the Lansing area so far thanks to its two-point Week 2 win over the Panthers. The Raiders have otherwise dominated coming off last year’s Division 5 runner-up finish, but Lansing Catholic surely has been looking forward to this opportunity. Not only will tonight’s game likely eventually decide the Capital Area Activities Conference White champion, but Portland handed the Cougars their only two losses last season – by a combined 12 points.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY East Lansing (3-1) at DeWitt (3-1), Sanford Meridian (4-0) at Clare (4-0), St. Johns (3-1) at Mason (4-0), Laingsburg (3-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (4-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Johannesburg-Lewiston (4-0) at Tawas (3-1)
The Cardinals are tied for first in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy division after winning the title outright a year ago, and they’ve dominated for most of 2019 so far. But this nonleague meeting starts a string of games against four straight playoff hopefuls. Tawas was a qualifier last season and this fall is just a two-point opening-night loss to Alcona from a perfect start as well.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Charlevoix (3-1) at Frankfort (2-2), Mancelona (2-2) at Elk Rapids (2-2). SATURDAY Alpena (2-2) at Traverse City West (2-2), Gaylord (2-2) at Traverse City Central (3-1).
Southeast & Border
Marshall (3-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (4-0)
By nature of this kind of success, as Lumen Christi’s state-best 27-game winning streak continues to grow, every matchup will be scrutinized that much more. The Titans have beaten Marshall in three straight but scored a season low in last year’s 21-0 shutout of the Redhawks. And this is a better Marshall team; after three straight seasons winning three or four games, Marshall is a one-point opening-night loss to Freeland from 4-0. Meanwhile, another win could just about seal up the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title for Lumen – its final three league opponents are a combined 3-9.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Chelsea (4-0) at Jackson (3-1), Britton Deerfield (3-1) at Sand Creek (3-1), Hillsdale (4-0) at Hudson (2-2), Brooklyn Columbia Central (3-1) at Onsted (2-2).
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Lakeview (4-0) at Kalamazoo Central (2-2)
Lakeview has had a nice run through the 2010s with five playoff appearances in a row from 2012-16. But last season the Spartans won two games, their fewest since 2002 – although that should be fading from memory with this start. A win tonight would bury it further, as defeating reigning champion Kalamazoo Central would earn Lakeview a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title – its first since 2015. But making it happen might take the Spartans’ best performance so far. The Maroon Giants have suffered their two losses by just a combined seven points, and the last three meetings with Lakeview all have been decided by eight points or fewer.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Cassopolis (4-0) at Decatur (2-2), Portage Central (2-2) at Stevensville Lakeshore (2-2), Benton Harbor (2-2) at Battle Creek Central (1-3). SATURDAY Delton Kellogg (3-1) at Schoolcraft (4-0).
Upper Peninsula
Lake Linden-Hubbell (3-1) at L'Anse (3-1)
These teams are enjoying similar jumpstarts this fall but with this nonleague matchup key to their postseason hopes. The Lakes were 10-1 as recently as 2016, but won just two games last season. A two-point Week 2 loss to Ishpeming is all that’s kept them from 4-0, but their next two games are against the leaders of their Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron division. Despite opening with a loss to Hancock, the Purple Hornets have equaled their win total from all of last season as they pursue a first playoff berth since 2013 – but with a tough slate of West PAC Copper games coming up to finish the regular season.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Escanaba (3-1) at Kingsford (2-2), Iron Mountain (4-0) at Bark River-Harris (3-1), Boyne City (2-2) at Menominee (3-1), Ogemaw Heights (3-1) at Sault Ste. Marie (3-1).
West Michigan
Muskegon Oakridge (4-0) at Montague (4-0)
This has as much claim to being Michigan’s best matchup of the weekend as any listed above or below, after Montague won last year’s meeting 25-24 on a touchdown and 2-point conversion with no time left. Oakridge went on to win out before falling by three to eventual Division 5 champion Hudsonville Unity Christian in the District Final – meaning the Eagles’ two defeats were by a combined four points to teams that ended up at Ford Field. Montague was runner-up in Division 6 and opened 2019 by avenging last season’s loss to Reed City.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (3-1) at Grand Rapids South Christian (3-1), Byron Center (4-0) at Zeeland West (4-0), East Kentwood (3-1) at Grandville (4-0), Manistee (3-1) at Muskegon Orchard View (4-0).
8-Player
Colon (4-0) at Climax-Scotts (4-0)
As expected, things got a little more competitive last week for Climax-Scotts as it continued to march through its first season of 8-player. But a 16-12 win over Camden-Frontier set the Panthers up to take on reigning Southern Central Athletic Association A champion Colon with an opportunity to win a share of the league title. The Magi have outscored their opponents by a combined 197-18 and have a few reasons to be amped. Not only does this stack up as one of the top 8-player matchups of the regular season statewide, but Climax-Scotts beat Colon in 11 straight 11-player games from 2008 through 2017.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Vestaburg (4-0) at Portland St. Patrick (4-0), Mio (3-1) at Hillman (4-0), Cedarville (2-2) at Brimley (4-0), Martin (4-0) at St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (2-2).
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PHOTO: Portland edged DeWitt 29-27 in Week 2. Both play this weekend in games that eventually could decide their leagues’ champions. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.