Drive for Detroit: Week 5 Preview
September 22, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There are 100 undefeated Michigan high school football teams at the midpoint of this season. Another 136 teams have only one loss heading into Week 5, which will be played out in most places tonight.
Eventually every fall, the elite emerge from all of those with great starts. And this looks like it's going to be that week for the 2015 season.
A number of our undefeated teams take on those from the group with one loss. Many of those matchups are mentioned below in this week’s Drive for Detroit preview, powered by MI Student Aid. Many more may be discussed in Monday's review of the weekend; be sure to tune back in then.
To see the weekend's full schedule, check out the MHSAA Score Center. All games below are Friday unless noted.
Bay & Thumb
Millington (4-0) at Frankenmuth (4-0)
A year doesn’t go by when this isn’t one of the must-see games from the Saginaw Bay area. There’s just too much history between the two; Millington has handed Frankenmuth its only two Tri-Valley Conference East losses over the last five seasons, and three of the Cardinals’ five league losses over the last five seasons came to the Eagles. Frankenmuth owns the most recent victory, 28-7 last year, and has outscored four opponents by a combined 150-20 this fall. Millington’s margin so far is 182-28 – and this one could see more offense than defense with standout quarterbacks Jared Davis and Bryce Bearss leading the Eagles and Cardinals, respectively.
Others that caught my eye: Brighton (3-1) at Grand Blanc (4-0), Croswell-Lexington (3-1) at Algonac (4-0), Montrose (3-1) at Lake Fenton (4-0), Midland Dow (4-0) at Flint Powers Catholic (2-2).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Catholic Central (4-0) at Birmingham Brother Rice (3-1)
What gives this an edge over the many other 4-0 vs. 3-1 matchups in the Detroit area this week is a few-fold. The winner certainly has an upper hand in the Detroit Catholic League Central, annually one of the state’s most competitive leagues. But it’s also intriguing because of Brother Rice’s bounce-back from 2-7 a year ago – its first sub-.500 finish since 1985. The Warriors’ lone loss this fall was to Indiana power Mishawaka Penn; DCC handed previously-undefeated Cleveland St. Ignatius a first loss last week and also owns an always-impressive win over Toledo Whitmer. The Shamrocks’ 35-7 win over Brother Rice in 2015 was their first against the rival after three straight losses; Rice surely will be looking to start a new streak.
Others that caught my eye: Romulus (4-0) at Dearborn (3-1), Detroit East English (3-1) at Detroit Cass Tech (4-0), Romeo (3-1) at Utica Eisenhower (4-0), Dearborn Fordson (4-0) at Redford Thurston (3-1).
Mid-Michigan
Stockbridge (3-1) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (4-0)
These two have combined to score 73 and then 103 points in their most recent meetings, respectively, and Stockbridge quarterback Mason Gee-Montgomery is coming off throwing eight touchdown passes to pass 100 for his career last week. Lakewood hasn’t scored fewer than 37 points this fall, and both teams are giving up their share as well. In addition to the obvious entertainment factor, this is a big one because it could decide the eventual Greater Lansing Athletic Conference champion. The Vikings are reigning champs, and with Stockbridge and Olivet are 2-0 in league play with two more league games left after this weekend.
Others that caught my eye: Laingsburg (4-0) at Fowler (3-1), East Lansing (2-2) at Holt (2-2), Flint Hamady (2-2) at Durand (4-0), New Lothrop (4-0) at Byron (3-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Charlevoix (4-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-1)
The Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division standings could clear up a little bit this week with this result; the winner will join Frankfort (which plays a crossover) as the only undefeated teams left in league play. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Rayders; they finished second in the Leaders in 2014. Glen Lake hasn’t been in contention since the formation of the NMFC that fall – but looks early more like the 2012 and 2013 teams that won Northwest Conference titles. The Lakers’ loss this season was by a mere eight points to powerhouse Traverse City St. Francis, and they beat 3-1 Onekama 42-7 a week ago. Charlevoix has an impressive win though too, by eight over NMFC Legends co-leader Boyne City in Week 2.
Others that caught my eye: Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-2) at Frankfort (4-0), Traverse City Central (4-0) at Gaylord (2-2), Houghton Lake (3-1) at Roscommon (4-0), Lincoln Alcona (3-1) at Whittemore-Prescott (3-1).
Southeast & Border
Adrian Madison (3-1) at Sand Creek (4-0)
Six of eight teams in the Tri-County Conference are .500 or better so far, and the league has a couple of significant matchups this week. Sand Creek gets a chance to prove it will stick in contention with also-undefeated Clinton and Ottawa Lake Whiteford. The Aggies have more wins than they’ve totaled in an entire season since 2011, but Madison – which lost to Clinton by only eight in Week 3 – is halfway to earning its first playoff berth since 2009.
Others that caught my eye: Tecumseh (2-2) at Chelsea (4-0), Springport (4-0) at Homer (2-2), Dundee (2-2) at Ida (4-0), Grand Ledge (3-1) at Jackson (2-2).
Southwest Corridor
Lawton (4-0) at Gobles (4-0)
This rivalry has been on, and then off, and now on again a few times over the last 15 years, but this edition might be the most meaningful in a while – and not just because Lawton won a nail-biter 30-27 a year ago. Both are staring down reigning champion Schoolcraft in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Central, with Lawton getting the Eagles next week and Gobles getting them in Week 7. Both are contenders to take the title away; Gobles has scored at least 50 points three weeks in a row, and Lawton has given up 12 – total – in four games.
Others that caught my eye: Battle Creek Lakeview (3-0) at Portage Central (3-1), Edwardsburg (4-0) at Dowagiac (2-2), Parchment (3-1) at St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (4-0), Bark River-Harris (2-2) at Climax-Scotts (4-0) on Saturday.
Upper Peninsula
Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-0) at Newberry (4-0)
The Mid-Eastern Conference has seen the share of top games in the Upper Peninsula so far, and this one could finish the sorting for this season. Newberry, in fact, can clinch a share of the league title, which would its first since 2005 in the Straits Area Conference. The Lakes won the final Great Western Conference title last fall but have played only one Mid-Eastern game so far. They need to win this one to not only take the lead, but keep alive a 13-game regular-season winning streak that this fall included handing Hancock its only loss so far.
Others that caught my eye: Calumet (3-1) at Hancock (3-1), Norway (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-1), Menominee (4-0) at Kingsford (3-1), Gwinn (3-1) at Negaunee (4-0).
West Michigan
Whitehall (4-0) at Montague (4-0)
This is a rematch of one of the classics from the Muskegon area a year ago; Montague won 29-28 in Week 5, which ended up contributing significantly to the Wildcats winning the West Michigan Conference championship. Comparing results against the same first four opponents from a year ago, Montague has been far more dominant this fall, outscoring those teams by a combined 173-24. Whitehall earned an impressive 50-47 win over much-improved Wyoming Kelloggsville in Week 1 and hasn’t slowed, running for 402 yards against Hart last week.
Others that caught my eye: Zeeland West (3-1) at Byron Center (3-1), Grand Rapids Christian (4-0) at Cedar Springs (3-1), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (3-1) at Muskegon (3-1), Lowell (4-0) at Greenville (3-1).
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip (4-0) at Camden-Frontier (3-0), Saturday
Camden-Frontier made its 8-player debut Week 1 by breaking a 19-game losing streak and has absolutely dominated, outscoring its first three opponents by a combined 194-8 – although two of those wins came against the same team. Regardless, the Redskins will find out Saturday where they might sit when it comes to the state’s elite. St. Philip has had a couple of closer-than-usual wins, two by 10 or fewer points. But the reigning MHSAA runner-up has won 16 of its last 17 games.
Others that caught my eye: Deckerville (4-0) at Rudyard (3-1), Pickford (3-1) at Posen (2-2).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Flint Hamady (blue helmets) downed Byron in Week 2 and takes on Durand this week; Byron takes on New Lothrop, which with Durand is tied for first in the Genesee Area Conference Blue. (Click to see more from Varsity Monthly.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.