Drive for Detroit: Week 8 Preview

October 12, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

This is the way it’s supposed to finish.

With the random ordering or yearly rotating that spits out most league schedules, any week of the regular season might feature the game that ends up deciding those conferences’ championships. But this fall, we’re lucky.

At least 19 games among those listed in our Week 8 preview below have the opportunity to affect league title. Three of our nine featured matchups pit teams that haven’t lost yet with only two games left until the playoffs begin. And undefeated Pickford kicked off the week Thursday with a 47-8 title share-clinching win over Cedarville in the 8-player Bridge Alliance League. 

Continue to follow all the results, league standings and real-time updating of playoff point averages with our MHSAA Score Center, and check out MHSAA.tv for nine live broadcasts tonight – click here for the schedule. Drive for Detroit is powered by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

Midland Dow (6-1) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (5-2), Friday

At the end of the day, figuratively speaking, the one-time favorites in the Saginaw Valley League Red are playing for the championship after all and for the second straight season. Carman-Ainsworth opened this fall 1-2, but both losses were nonleague – and it will finish the weekend with a share of the title regardless of this outcome. But Dow, which dropped its league opener to Bay City Central by a point on Sept. 1, can also gain a share by avenging last year’s seven-point loss to the Cavaliers that also decided the Red winner.  

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Algonac (6-1) at Richmond (7-0), Lapeer (5-2) at Midland (6-1), Alma (6-1) at Saginaw Swan Valley (6-1), Warren Woods Tower (6-1) at Port Huron Northern (6-1).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (5-1) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (6-1) at Detroit Northwestern, Saturday

Although this is just a semifinal in the Detroit Public School League tournament, these two may be the best of the field – although undefeated East English and Detroit Renaissance, the other semifinalists, surely will put up an argument over the next two weeks as well. After two years in the same PSL division, King and Cass Tech were split up again this fall, and both won division titles and remain MHSAA title contenders as well after Cass Tech won Division 1 last year and King Division 2 in 2016 and 2015. Their only losses this season are to out-of-state teams, and together they’ve given up only 60 points over a combined nine games of league play.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (5-2) at Warren DeLaSalle (5-2), Macomb Dakota (5-2) at Romeo (5-2), Redford Thurston (5-2) at Dearborn Fordson (6-1), SATURDAY Detroit Mumford (5-2) vs. Detroit Central (5-2) at Detroit Northwestern.

Mid-Michigan

Beaverton (7-0) at Harrison (5-2), Friday

Beaverton must dominate the best of Clare County over the next two weeks to do something no Beavers team has done this century. They sit tied with Week 9 opponent Clare for first place in the Jack Pine Conference while pursuing a first league title since 1989. Next week’s tilt with the Pioneers could be one of the state’s most intriguing regular-season finales – but will fall back to just one of many important games if Beaverton can’t get past third-place Harrison first. The Hornets’ only league loss was to Clare in Week 5.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Berrien Springs (6-1) at Olivet (7-0), East Lansing (5-2) at Lansing Sexton (5-2), Morley Stanwood (6-1) at Beal City (4-3), Haslett (5-2) at Williamston (5-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Gaylord St. Mary (7-0) at Harbor Springs (4-3), Friday

The winner tonight claims a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy championship, and host Harbor Springs shouldn’t be considered too much of an underdog despite the disparity in overall records. The Rams finished second in the Legacy last season and have made the playoffs in two straight, and earned that 2016 runner-up finish in part with a 38-24 win over the Snowbirds. That said, St. Mary turned back a good challenge from rival Johannesburg-Lewiston last week and has had only one opponent come within double digits – recently surging Newberry in Week 2.  

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Lincoln Alcona (6-1) at Lake City (7-0), Boyne City (7-0) at Elk Rapids (6-1), Traverse City West (7-0) at Gaylord (4-3), Birmingham Brother Rice (4-3) at Traverse City Central (5-2).

Southeast & Border

Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-0) at Clinton (5-2), Friday

With four league opponents still alive for playoff bids, Whiteford wasn’t going to get much of a break this season coming off last year’s Division 8 runner-up finish. But the Bobcats have handled every challenge with complete success, beating all seven opponents this season by at least 32 points. Clinton was the last team to hand Whiteford a league loss, in Week 9 of 2015, and the Redskins are tied for second in the TCC and riding a three-game winning streak. A win tonight will guarantee Whiteford a share of the league title, but a victory could eventually mean one for Clinton too with a winless opponent coming up in Week 9.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Michigan Center (6-1) at Grass Lake (4-3), Ida (6-1) at Hillsdale (3-4), Detroit U-D Jesuit (3-4) at Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (6-1), Ann Arbor Pioneer (3-4) at Adrian (3-4).

Southwest Corridor

Mendon (7-0) at Cassopolis (7-0), Friday

The first season of the Southwest 10 Conference has seen some parity, with five of 10 teams between 3-4 and 5-2. But these two are clearly at the top with a two-win edge on the rest and nearly identical numbers to tout that dominance. Cassopolis has given up 28 points; Mendon has given up 21. Cassopolis has scored 344; Mendon is right behind with 327. Both came from the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Red, won by Cassopolis last year as a result of a 33-14 Week 2 downing of the Hornets – the Rangers’ second straight in this emerging rivalry.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Vicksburg (6-1) at Edwardsburg (6-1), Pittsford (6-1) at Climax-Scotts (6-1), Battle Creek Harper Creek (7-0) at Marshall (4-3), Watervliet (7-0) at Schoolcraft (5-2).

Upper Peninsula

Iron River West Iron County (6-1) at Hancock (6-1), Friday

The Wykons can clinch a share of their third Western Peninsula Athletic Conference title in five seasons and are just a two-point opening-night loss to Bark River-Harris from perfection this fall. Hancock is a little unfamiliar with this spot but also is a two-point loss from perfection in 2016. A win tonight would line the Bulldogs up to claim a shared league title next week and add another highlight to a rejuvenation that has seen a second straight winning season after a decade with only one, plus the clinching of their first playoff berth this fall since 2006.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Kingsford (5-1) at Menominee (5-2), Lake Linden-Hubbell (3-3) at Norway (6-1), Marquette (3-4) at Negaunee (4-3), Bessemer Gogebic (3-4) at Calumet (4-3).

West Michigan

Muskegon (7-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (7-0), Friday

The west side of the state is loaded with annually important rivalry games, and this Muskegon matchup has bulled its way into consideration among the best of them. Mona Shores won the Ottawa-Kent Conference in 2014 and 2015 with wins over the Big Reds, but Muskegon has taken the last three meetings starting with a rematch win in the District Final three weeks after that 2015 loss. Few teams in the state this season have dominated like Muskegon, which sits with a playoff average of 100.571 – ninth highest among all teams. Mona Shores, however, sits atop a projected Division 2 at 109.714 – second-highest in Michigan with a chance to jump even higher.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (7-0) at Cedar Springs (5-2), Belding (6-1) at Wyoming Kelloggsville (7-0), East Kentwood (5-2) at Rockford (4-3).

8-Player

Onekama (7-0) at Central Lake (7-0), Friday

The Midwest Central Michigan Conference is half filled with first-year 8-player teams and is putting forth at least two that could be MHSAA title contenders. If the season ended after last week, Onekama would be entering the 8-Player Division 2 playoffs with the highest playoff point average in the division and home games until the Final. Central Lake would be ranked third in 8-Player Division 1 by playoff point average – not too shabby, considering especially that Central Lake was 2-7 in 11-player in 2016 (while Onekama made the playoffs but as part of a co-operative program with Bear Lake). With both teams winning every game this season by at least 24 points, it’s deserved and lucky this league finale also will decide the league championship.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Deckerville (6-1) at Peck (4-3), Mayville (4-3) at Bay City All Saints (6-1), Webberville (5-2) at Camden-Frontier (7-0), SATURDAY Marion (6-1) at Portland St. Patrick (6-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Warren DeLaSalle, on offense, faced Birmingham Brother Rice in Week 4 and won 36-14. The Pilots will play this week for the Detroit Catholic League Central title. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.