A Game for Every Fan: Regional Finals
November 8, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Let's face it. In high school football especially, it's tough to predict which teams will be around when the big trophies are awarded Thanksgiving weekend. It wouldn't take much research to figure out how many top-ranked favorites have fallen long before finishing the drive for Detroit.
But here's a little indicator that's bearing out as this season's playoffs rush into their third weekend.
Of 64 teams still alive in the 11-player brackets, 53 ranked among the top half of their respective divisions in playoff point average. The four teams remaining in the 8-player bracket all ranked among the top six in that division.
That's rather logical, you might say. But it's also an endorsement for playing tough competition, and further makes it special when a team with a lower average breaks through at the end.
Those teams still alive despite bottom-16 playoff point averages? Congrats on great efforts by Detroit Catholic Central, Caledonia, St. Johns, Three Rivers, Clare, Newaygo, Constantine, Britton-Deerfield, Pewamo-Westphalia, Flint Beecher and Johannesburg-Lewiston.
This week's games are split evenly between Friday and Saturday, with 17 each day. Four Friday games will be streamed live on FoxSportsDetroit.com's Prep Zone: Montrose at Ithaca, Detrot Cass Tech at Saline, Saginaw Swan Valley at Croswell-Lexington and Three Rivers at Grand Rapids South Christian.
Below are all of the Regional Finals with a little extra on some of the best matchups, plus a look at both 8-player Semifinals. Visit the MHSAA Score Center for game times and dates, and all weekend for updated scores and schedules.
Division 1
Rockford (9-2) at Clarkston (11-0)
These two easily come to mind when Division 1 football is discussed. But oddly enough, they've never met. The Wolves are playing for their fourth Semifinal berth and second in four seasons, and were the most popular pick in Division 1 heading into the playoffs. But three-time MHSAA champion Rockford is finally humming after opening 1-2 this fall and losing quarterback Kyle Short for a time. He’s back, and the Rams are playing in their fifth-straight Regional Final.
Other Regional Finals: Detroit Catholic Central (7-4) at Plymouth (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (9-2) at Saline (10-1), Macomb Dakota (10-1) at Lake Orion (10-1).
Division 2
Muskegon (10-1) at Midland (11-0)
The Big Reds no doubt enjoyed a sigh of relief after edging Lowell in last week’s District Final. But life gets no easier. Midland is working toward what would be the first 14-0 season in its similarly-impressive history, and is keyed by a likely all-state candidate at quarterback in Alec Johnson. Not that Muskegon will be intimidated – this will be its eighth game this fall against a playoff team.
Other Regional Finals: Caledonia (8-3) at Mattawan (10-1), Birmingham Brother Rice (9-2) at Walled Lake Western (9-2), Oak Park (9-2) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (10-1).
Division 3
Grand Rapids Christian (10-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (11-0)
This may be the game of the weekend in Michigan. Neither has lost to an in-state team – Christian’s only defeat was to Ohio power Cincinnati Moeller – and both have crushed the majority of their opponents this fall. The Eagles scored a season-high 68 points against Zeeland West last week thanks to four touchdown passes plus four touchdown runs by quarterback Alex VandeVusse. This is Lakeshore’s fifth Regional Final over the last decade, and comes after a perfect run through the Southwest Michigan Activities Conference West – one of the state’s most competitive leagues this season.
Other Regional Finals: St. Johns (8-3) at DeWitt (9-2), Tecumseh (9-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (9-2), Detroit East English (9-2) at Orchard Lake St. Mary (9-2).
Division 4
Grosse Ile (10-1) at Detroit Country Day (9-2)
The Red Devils have won 10 games for the second straight season after making the Semifinals in 2011. This fall’s success has come against a schedule that has included six playoff teams. Country Day’s slate has included only three teams that made the postseason, but the Yellow Jackets beat a strong one last week in Pontiac Notre Dame and opened the playoffs by dropping previously-undefeated Clinton Township Clintondale 35-0.
Other Regional Finals: West Branch Ogemaw Heights (8-3) at Comstock Park (10-1), Three Rivers (8-3) at Grand Rapids South Christian (8-3), Saginaw Swan Valley (9-2) at Croswell-Lexington (11-0).
Division 5
River Rouge (11-0) at Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (10-1)
As written on 2H on Monday, River Rouge is one of the best stories of the season – the Panthers are 11-0 for the first time and before last month had won a playoff game only once, in 2001. But this week’s opponent easily will be their toughest this season. Gabriel Richard hasn't given up a point in the playoffs, with a 24-0 win last week over a strong Lake Fenton team.
Other Regional Finals: Clare (9-2) at Menominee (10-1), Newaygo (9-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (8-3), Portland (10-1) at Flint Powers Catholic (11-0).
Division 6
Montrose (10-1) at Ithaca (11-0)
One of these weeks, an opponent is going to provide a strong challenge to Ithaca’s 39-game winning streak. Montrose might be it. The two have met in the playoffs the last two seasons, with Ithaca winning only 28-13 in last season’s District Final. Granted, it doesn't look as good for the Rams after surviving by a point in the District Semifinal and by just five against a good Millington team last week. But expect Montrose to bring its best, and Ithaca to match in front of a crowd that could approach 3,000 fans.
Other Regional Finals: Shelby (9-2) at Negaunee (10-1), Constantine (9-2) at Hillsdale (11-0), Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-2) at Grass Lake (10-1).
Division 7
Britton Deerfield (8-3) at Detroit Loyola (11-0)
The Britton-Macon Tories hadn't made the MHSAA playoffs since reaching the Semifinals in 2000, before the school combined in 2010 with Deerfield – which hadn't fielded a football team since 1992. Britton-Deerfield has made the playoffs both years of its existence and has improved two wins on last season’s finish so far. Loyola had easily the highest playoff point average in Division 7 entering the playoffs and is in the Regional Final for the second year in a row. The Bulldogs also entered 11-0 last season and were shut out by Hudson, but have upped their offensive average this fall by a touchdown to more than 46 points per game.
Other Regional Finals: Lake City (10-1) at Ishpeming (10-1), Pewamo-Westphalia (8-3) at Decatur (9-2), Flint Beecher (7-4) at Saginaw Nouvel (9-2).
Division 8
St. Ignace (11-0) at Felch North Dickinson (10-0)
The Saints are playing for their second straight Semifinal berth, but it’s fair to say they’re even better this time around. After giving up a respectable 16 points per game last season, St. Ignace is giving up an average of only five and has five shutouts (not counting the forfeit win over Rudyard in Week 3). North Dickinson’s most noticeable improvement this fall has come on offense – the Nordics have upped their points per game from 38 in 2011 to 50 this fall.
Other Regional Finals: Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-2) at Beal City (11-0), Muskegon Catholic Central (8-3) at Mendon (11-0), Waterford Our Lady (9-2) at Harbor Beach (10-1).
8-Player (Semifinals)
Bellaire (8-3) at Rapid River (10-1)
It’s fair to call these teams two of the original powers in MHSAA 8-player football. Bellaire is 24-8 since making the switch in 2010, and that season finished “mythical” runner-up, that being the term because the championship game was organized by the two leagues and was not an MHSAA playoff game. Rapid River is 20-4 in two seasons as an 8-player program, and was the runner-up in last season’s inaugural championship game. The Rockets stunned the 8-player community last week by beating Cedarville 22-14 after falling to the Trojans 72-12 on Sept. 28.
Deckerville (10-1) at Portland St. Patrick (11-0)
These are both first-year 8-player programs, and it’s fair to say their moves were good ones. Deckerville’s only loss also was to Cedarville, but that was back on the final day of August. The Eagles' run opened with a 42-39 win over reigning MHSAA champ Carsonville-Port Sanilac. All but one of the Shamrocks' opponents were from the southwest part of the Lower Peninsula, but St. Patrick shouldn't be stunned by facing a little bit tougher competition after years of 11-player in the highly-competitive Central Michigan Athletic Conference.
PHOTO: Detroit Country Day senior Trevor Woodland (2) tries to break a tackle by Pontiac Notre Dame senior Mark Juriga during last week’s District Final win for the Yellow Jackets. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.