Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: District Finals in Review
November 12, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There will be at least four new MHSAA football champions when this season ends later this month in Greenville and then Detroit.
One opportunity was an opening of circumstance, as reigning Division 8 champ Harbor Beach moved into Division 7 for this season's playoffs. But reigning Division 3 winner Grand Rapids Christian lost this weekend in a District Final, joining Division 5 Portland and 8-player Deckerville among teams whose drives to defend have come to an end.
Three weeks remain in the 11-player season, with four 8-player Regional champions meeting this week to decide who will face off in the championship game Nov. 22 at Legacy Field.
Read on for some of the most intriguing results of last week's action as the field was whittled to 68 teams still alive.
Division 1
Hudsonville 19, Rockford 14
Hudsonville (8-3) was one of the state’s most successful programs last decade, but this is its first season with a winning record since 2008. The recent struggle coincided in part with six straight losses to Rockford (9-2) – including a 28-19 regular-season defeat this fall in Week 6. But this District title leaves the Eagles as best in Division 1 from the always-strong west side of the state. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Detroit Cass Tech 28, Warren Mott 19: The reigning champ Technicians (11-0) kept rolling in handing Mott (10-1) its first and only defeat.
Temperance Bedford 36, Saline 29: Bedford (11-0) also beat Saline (9-2) by 16 points in Week 5 in the game that eventually decided the Southeastern Conference Red title.
Detroit Catholic Central 37, Walled Lake Western 27: The Shamrocks (9-2) earned their fifth straight District title, while ending a streak of two straight for Western (9-2).
Division 2
Muskegon 28, Lowell 21
Big Reds quarterback Deshaun Thrower had to gut out the last few minutes after suffering a slight injury, but to that point he’d thrown for two touchdowns and run for a third as Muskegon (10-1) avenged a Week 4 loss to the Red Arrows (10-1) to claim a second straight District title. The victory also evened the recent playoff series between the two at 3-3 over the last six seasons. Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Detroit Martin Luther King 28, Detroit East English 20: Only a few more points separated these two than when King (9-1) also edged East English (7-4) by six in Week 2.
Detroit U-D Jesuit 14, Oak Park 8: The Cubs (7-4) continued their comeback season with a first District title since 2001, while Oak Park (6-5) also can celebrate making it this far for the second straight season.
Portage Central 40, Battle Creek Lakeview 7: This matchup of Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference champions didn’t end up close, with West winner Portage Central (11-0) getting out front big and Lakeview (10-1) never able to catch up.
Division 3
Zeeland West 48, Grand Rapids Christian 35
So ended the title defense of reigning champion Grand Rapids Christian, which did finish 8-3 despite graduating a large group of standouts from last season’s team and not having superstar receiver Drake Harris all season because of an injury. Zeeland West (10-1) – the Division 4 champion only two seasons ago – now looks like a favorite to emerge from this side of the bracket. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 31, St. Joseph 21: Usually-powerful Lakeshore (8-3) was something of an afterthought after finishing fourth in the SMAC West, but no longer after taking down league runner-up St. Joseph (9-2) despite losing by 12 to the Bears in Week 3.
Melvindale 35, Milan 31: Melvindale (9-2) has bounced back from two straight losing seasons to post its best record since 2009, and its best win likely was this first loss for Milan (10-1).
Eaton Rapids 24, Tecumseh 20: Eaton Rapids’ first-ever playoff run has grown to three weeks, thanks to the Greyhounds (7-4) winning a bit of a shocker over Tecumseh (8-3).
Division 4
Detroit Country Day 49, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 27
Country Day (8-3) won close over Notre Dame Prep on the way to Ford Field in 2012, and came up big this time to run its 2013 winning streak to eight. The Yellowjackets have three high-major Division I college prospects on offense, and they continued to shine while ending another solid run for Notre Dame (8-3). Click to read more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Marine City 35, Richmond 21: Richmond (9-2) won the Blue Water Area Conference while Marine City (10-1) finished second in the Macomb Area Conference Gold – but the postseason is the Mariners’ time, and they won a 10th game for the 13th time in 15 seasons.
Battle Creek Pennfield 35, Dowagiac 21: Coming off an upset win the week before, Dowagiac (7-4) couldn’t knock off another league champion in Kalamazoo Valley Association power Pennfield (10-1).
Cadillac 35, Ogemaw Heights 27: Ogemaw Heights (7-4) made this much closer than the teams’ Week 5 meeting, but couldn’t catch the Big North Conference champion Vikings (11-0).
Division 5
Muskegon Oakridge 22, Reed City 20
Oakridge (10-1) is back in the Regional Final for the first time since 2010 after holding off a late charge and stopping a two-point conversion attempt that would’ve tied the score. It was another in a heartbreaking string, however, for Reed City (10-1), which came into the District Final undefeated for the third straight season, but fell short of claiming its first District title by less than a field goal for the second consecutive year. Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 44, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 40: The Huron League runner-up Falcons (10-1) won their first District title in six seasons while keeping Gabriel Richard (8-3) from winning its third in four years.
Millington 33, Frankenmuth 29: The Tri-Valley Conference East rivals met in the playoffs for the first time since 2005, with the Cardinals (9-2) catching the league champion Eagles (9-2) at the end to split the season series and move on.
Livonia Clarenceville 31, Detroit University Prep 22: Clarenceville (10-0) is a District champion and undefeated this late for the first time since 2001, when it reached the Silverdome; University Prep ended its longest run ever at 8-3.
Division 6
Montrose 20, Saginaw Nouvel 6
Montrose vs. Madison Heights Madison has been one of the most anticipated potential Regional Finals in this playoffs, and Montrose took care of its end by jumping to a 20-0 lead and hanging strong on defense in this District Final. The win gave the Rams (11-0) their third District title in four seasons, while dropping a strong Nouvel team to 9-2. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Madison Heights Madison 27, Flint Beecher 20: Madison (11-0) nearly missed out on the big Regional matchup thanks to a solid Beecher team that ended 8-3 and won eight games for the fourth time in seven seasons.
Schoolcraft 28, Watervliet 26: Like last week, the KVA continued to look strong with co-champion Schoolcraft (10-1) eliminating Southwestern Athletic Conference South champion Watervliet (10-1).
Clinton 39, Grass Lake 14: Clinton (11-0) is 20-1 over the last two seasons and has yet to allow an opponent within single digits this fall, including Cascades Conference co-champion Grass Lake (9-2).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 20, Carson City-Crystal 14
The best season in Carson City-Crystal history ended thanks to a late comeback by P-W (10-1), which won its third straight District title. The Eagles, who won 10 games for the first time and entered this one undefeated, did drive into Pirates territory late but fell short as time expired. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Ishpeming 34, Iron River West Iron County 0: The reigning champion Hematites (11-0) never let this matchup of undefeated teams turn into much of a game; West Iron finished 10-1.
Southfield Christian 28, Madison Heights Bishop Foley 24: Southfield Christian (10-1) extended the best season of its eight-year history with its closest victory this fall; Bishop Foley, at 7-4, did end with its best record since 2006.
Lake City 56, Lincoln Alcona 14: Lake City’s lone loss to Beal City continues to become a distant memory as the Trojans (10-1) pile up wins like this one over previously-undefeated Lincoln Alcona (10-1).
Division 8
Mendon 13, Climax-Scotts 0
It’s an unfortunate circumstance of geography that these two always meet before the final rounds of the playoffs – Mendon (11-0) eliminated Climax-Scotts (9-2) for the third straight season, and the latter’s only other loss was to a team that generally makes the playoffs in Division 5 (Flint Powers). Make that now 526-19 in favor of Mendon over its combined opponents this season. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
New Lothrop 41, Waterford Our Lady 28: The Hornets (11-0) have piled up four straight seasons of double figure wins and have yet to allow an opponent to come within single digits, including Catholic League Intersectional champion Our Lady (8-3).
Crystal Falls Forest Park 16, L’Anse 9: The dream of returning to Ford Field nearly ended as a nightmare for Forest Park (11-0) as it just edged the Purple Hornets (8-3).
St. Ignace 20, Johannesburg-Lewiston 14: The Saints (9-2) battled through to earn a rematch from last season’s Semifinal against Beal City; Johannesburg-Lewiston (8-3) did finish its third season in four with at least eight wins.
8-Player (Regional Finals)
Lawrence 58, Battle Creek St. Philip 28
Only two weeks ago St. Philip beat Lawrence 54-50, but Lawrence (8-2) obviously learned quickly from that day’s mistakes – just as it has all season in its first as an 8-player program. St. Philip finished only its second season of 8-player, but with its best record, 10-1, since 1985. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Peck 31, Carsonville-Port Sanilac 7: Peck (11-0) scored its second-fewest points of the season but also turned in one of its best defensive performances of the fall in holding the Tigers (7-4) to their second-fewest points as well.
Kinde-North Huron 64, Owendale-Gagetown 22: North Huron (8-3) advanced to its first football Semifinal in any division while ending Owendale-Gagetown’s best season since 1979 at 9-2.
Rapid River 50, Engadine 21: Engadine (6-5) got hot at the end of the regular season, but Rapid River (11-0) has one of the most impressive resumes of any team left in any division.
PHOTO: A trio of Montrose defenders brings down a Saginaw Nouvel ballcarrier during last weekend's District Final win. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)