Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review
October 23, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The last week of the MHSAA football regular season is upon us. But Week 8 featured some significant firsts.
At Ypsilanti, visiting Lincoln beat the home team 27-20 to win the Southeastern Conference White for the first time. The league formed in 2000 and the Railsplitters were 0-9 only three seasons ago – and hadn't won a league title in any conference since 1987.
Further east Detroit Allen clinched its first playoff berth with a win over Ecorse. To the south, Adrian Lenawee Christian beat North Adams-Jerome for its sixth win, its most ever.
And those are just the program milestones. For the many high school players who enjoy just two seasons on varsity, every championship or playoff-qualifying win could be a first.
Here’s a look at some that surely were as we wrap up league title races and prepare for Sunday’s playoff selection.
West Michigan
Lowell 35, Grand Rapids Christian 34 (2 OT)
This season’s O-K White championship likely came down to a pair of overtimes between two teams that played at Ford Field last season. Reigning Division 2 runner-up Lowell (8-0) stopped a two-point conversion try by reigning Division 3 champ Grand Rapids Christian (6-2) after the game’s final score. The Red Arrows had fallen in two straight to the Eagles. Click to read more by the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Hudsonville 20, East Kentwood 9: Not only did the Eagles (5-3) give themselves an outside chance at sharing the O-K Red title, but they took a major step toward securing a first playoff berth since 2008. East Kentwood (5-3) can earn a league share too and also qualify for the playoffs by beating first-place Rockford this week.
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 32, Muskegon Mona Shores 28: Reeths-Puffer (7-1) kept pace with Muskegon atop the O-K Black heading into their league-deciding matchup this week, while Mona Shore (6-2) fell out of contention but can prepare for its first playoff appearance.
Belding 35, Sparta 14: Belding (5-3) kept its playoff hopes alive as it works to secure its first birth since 2007, while Sparta (5-3) is left to beat O-K Blue frontrunner Comstock Park this weekend to qualify.
Byron Center 16, Holland Christian 9: Byron Center (6-2) earned its first playoff berth since 2010 and set itself up to face Zeeland West this week for the O-K Green title. Holland Christian (4-4) fell to third place and hopes to make the playoffs with an at-large bid.
Lower Up North
Traverse City St. Francis 28, Maple City Glen Lake 21
St. Francis (5-3) kept its playoff hopes alive by edging the Northwest Conference champion and avenged a heavy blow dealt last season by Glen Lake (7-1); the Lakers’ 26-20 win over St. Francis in 2012 was among the most painful reasons the Gladiators didn’t make the playoffs for the first time since 1989. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Boyne City 28, Elk Rapids 12: Boyne City (7-1) needed this one to set up this week’s Lake Michigan Conference-deciding game against Grayling; Elk Rapids (5-3) is tied for third, this week’s game in a must-win to automatically make the playoffs.
Grayling 33, East Jordan 26: See above for the Lake Michigan Conference race explanation, with Grayling now also 7-1 and East Jordan (4-4) hoping for a strong finish and at-large postseason bid.
Lake City 41, Evart 21: Lake City (7-1) looks good to finish second in the Highland Conference and Evart has locked down at least third, with a chance they’ll see each other again in the playoffs for the second straight year.
Traverse City Central 28, Ogemaw Heights 20: Four Big North Conference teams are 5-3, and these are two of them. Central faces Cadillac and Ogemaw Heights faces Petoskey this week in hopes of earning automatic playoff berths.
Southwest and Border
Portage Central 49, St. Joseph 28
Portage Central took advantage of a bevy of turnovers and got rolling during the second half to win the biggest game of the regular season in the southwest corner of the state. The Mustangs (8-0) clinched a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West title with the win and can finish their first perfect regular season since 1993 by beating winless Benton Harbor this weekend. St. Joseph (7-1) remains among the top teams by playoff point average of those projected to make the Division 3 playoffs. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Cassopolis 35, Niles Brandywine 12: This turned the Lakeland Athletic Conference championship into a shared title between these two, with Cassopolis (5-3) dealing Brandywine (7-1) its first loss of the fall.
Edwardsburg 36, Dowagiac 0: This deciding game in the Wolverine B West turned into a big win for undefeated Edwardsburg (8-0) over Dowagiac (6-2), last season’s champion.
Battle Creek Lakeview 33, Battle Creek Harper Creek 14: Lakeview (8-0), which began the season with five straight shutouts, has given up just a few points over the last three games on the way to earning a share of the SMAC East title; Harper Creek (6-2), with 14 points, tied for the most success against the Spartans’ defense.
Battle Creek St. Philip 68, Portland St. Patrick 14: St. Philip (8-0) handed St. Patrick (7-1) its first regular-season 8-player loss in winning the Southern Michigan League title outright.
Upper Peninsula
Lake Linden-Hubbell 16, Felch North Dickinson 8
Lake Linden-Hubbell’s quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010 looked in doubt with the Lakes (5-3) needing two wins and North Dickinson and Crystal Falls Forest Park left on the schedule (they were a combined 13-1 entering last week). But the Lakes put the defensive clamps on North Dickinson (6-2), holding the Nordics to its fewest points since the 2010 playoffs. Click to read more from the Houghton Mining Gazette.
Also noted:
Crystal Falls Forest Park 38, Bessemer 20: The Eagles (8-0) avenged last season’s loss to the Miners (5-3) and in the process clinched a share of the Great Western Conference title.
Negaunee 38, Marquette 14: Negaunee (7-1) bounced back nicely after falling to Ishepming in Week 7, claiming the Diamond Jubilee Trophy, while Marquette (5-2) finishes with another tough one this week against Menominee.
Sault Ste. Marie 27, Kingsley 13: Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) has kept its playoff hopes alive over the last two weeks by beating teams with a combined record of 11-5. Kingsley (5-3) also needs a win this week to qualify.
Cedarville 21, Bellaire 16: Bellaire (5-3) looked like one of few that could beat Cedarville (7-1) this season, and the Eagles got close in a defensive battle.
Greater Detroit and Southeast
St. Clair 43, Marine City 33
St. Clair’s first win over Marine City since 2005 – and second in 22 seasons – earned a number of riches. The Saints (8-0) claimed the traveling Bell Trophy and also an outright Macomb Area Conference Gold championship, and guaranteed their best record since at least 1982. Marine City (7-1) still remains only a win away from its 16th straight season with at least eight. Click to read more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Also noted:
Macomb Dakota 52, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7: The battle for the MAC Red title – and traveling Superintendent’s Trophy – ended up more of the same for Dakota (8--0), which has given up only 42 points this fall. With one more win, Chippewa Valley (7-1) still can equal its most since 2006.
Birmingham Seaholm 28, Birmingham Groves 22: Seaholm (8-0) earned its second straight Oakland Activities Association Blue title by defeating second-place Groves (7-1) in the final league game of the season.
Northville 42, Canton 30: This was significant for a few reasons for Northville (7-1), which moved on to the Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game be beating Canton (7-1) for the first time in its last eight tries.
Waterford Mott 26, Port Huron 20: The Marauders (8-0) flipped last season's finish, when Mott lost to Port Huron by three and finished second in the MAC White; this time Mott is first and the Big Reds (5-3) are runners-up.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Sexton 27, Lansing Everett 14
Sexton (8-0) won the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue outright and the traveling Oak Chest trophy, and needs to beat its other city rival, Eastern High, to finish the regular season 9-0 for the first time since 1999. The Big Reds, a Class B schools with wins over seven Class A opponents, also has the highest playoff point average of teams projected to fall into Division 4 for the playoffs. Everett (5-3), last season’s CAAC Blue champion, must beat two-win Jackson this week to ensure a playoff spot. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
DeWitt 13, Portland 7: DeWitt (8-0) no doubt was up for this one after losing two straight to the Raiders (7-1). Both are champions of their divisions of the CAAC, DeWitt in the Red and Portland in the White.
East Lansing 3, Grand Ledge 0: The Comets (4-4) needed to win out to make the playoffs automatically after an 0-3 start, but instead East Lansing (4-4) kept its slim hope alive after three straight losses.
Olivet 28, Constantine 14: The Eagles (7-1) kept themselves in the three-team mix atop the Kalamazoo Valley Association, with reigning Division 6 runner-up Constantine (5-3) now needing a win this week to qualify automatically for the postseason.
Ovid-Elsie 21, Freeland 15: The Marauders (6-2) quietly have bounced back from a 3-6 finish in 2012 to finish second in the Tri-Valley Conference Central. Third-place Freeland (6-2) also has made the playoffs, and they could meet again.
Bay and Thumb
Harbor Beach 56, Marlette 7
The deciding game for the Greater Thumb Conference East title belonged to Harbor Beach (7-1) early, as it scored the first two touchdowns and after Marlette’s score ran off 44 unanswered points. The Pirates pushed their league winning streak to 16 straight, while Marlette (7-1) still can equal its best finish of at least the last half century, 8-1 in 1975. Click to read more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Also noted:
Millington 15, North Branch 7: The Cardinals (6-2) were at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003 before edging already-qualified North Branch (6-2).
Richmond 42, Yale 28: The Blue Devils (7-1) finished a perfect run through the Blue Water Area Conference and forced Yale (5-3) into a must-win situation to qualify for the playoffs automatically.
Flint Powers Catholic 48, Climax-Scotts 13: The Chargers (4-4) are hanging on to a hope of making the playoffs with an at-large bid, and handing Climax-Scotts (7-1) its first loss should help.
Vassar 35, Cass City 8: The Vulcans (5-3) moved one win closer to a fifth straight playoff berth, while dropping Cass City (4-4) into a much less favorable position.
Trophy Games
Each week, the MHSAA highlights trophy games around the state. Here are a few more in addition to those mentioned above:
Little Brown Jug: Warren Lincoln vs. Center Line. Lincoln made it two in a row and five of six over its MAC Bronze rival. Final: Lincoln 26, Center Line 19.
Sugar Bowl: Unionville-Sebewaing vs. Reese. The Rockets have owned this series of late, winning every season dating to 2006. Final: Reese 47, USA 0.
Spirit Bell: St. Louis vs. Ithaca. This one changes hands every time these schools meet in any varsity sport – which means the Sharks’ highly-ranked volleyball team could win it back tonight. Final: Ithaca 76, St. Louis 0.
Battle of the Panthers: Detroit University Prep vs. Detroit Plymouth Educational Center. This one is relatively new, with Detroit PEC playing football only since 2010 and University Prep since 2006. Final: University Prep 37, PEC 6.
The Curb: Berkley vs. Royal Oak. A piece of pavement was first awarded to the winner of this matchup in 2012. Final: Berkley 20, Royal Oak 18.
Ted Heusel Bowl: Ann Arbor Huron vs. Ann Arbor Pioneer. This trophy is named for the late longtime area broadcaster who also served as the district's school board president. Final: Pioneer 9, Huron 6.
Kiwanis Trophy: Madison Heights Madison vs. Madison Heights Lamphere. A quick 2-mile drive down John R Road is nearly all that separates these MAC Silver rivals. Final: Madison 30, Lamphere 0.
Colvin Cup: Grosse Ile vs. Riverview. Not since 1998 and 1999 has either team won this game two seasons in a row. Final: Riverview 45, Grosse Ile 42.
PHOTO: Lowell (in gray) needed two overtimes to edge Grand Rapids Christian 35-34 in Week 8. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)