Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

A Game for Every Fan: Week 3

September 12, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

This week has some of the best of everything for the Michigan high school football fan.

Two powers meet again in one of the most followed rivalry games in the state. Two neighbors face off in another that should draw an entire town. On perhaps a sadder but immediately urgent note, two more will meet again but for the final time.

See below for some of the best games to see in every corner of the state this weekend, and be sure to monitor all the scores at the MHSAA Score Center.

West Michigan

Rockford (2-0) at Muskegon (2-0)

Most seasons, this is arguably the most anticipated regular-season matchup in Michigan. And the excitement was tempered only slightly by Muskegon’s move to another division of the O-K Conference in 2012. Rockford holds a 4-2 advantage in the regular-season series since it began in 2007, but four of those games have been decided by eight or fewer points and Muskegon won last season, 21-9. The Big Reds, also last season’s Division 2 runner-up, have opened with big wins over Grand Haven and reigning Division 3 champ Grand Rapids Christian. Rockford’s slate has been similarly impressive – double-digit wins over Utica Eisenhower and Holt.

Others that caught my eye: Muskegon Mona Shores (2-0) at Caledonia (2-0), Grand Rapids West Catholic (0-2) at Grand Rapids South Christian (1-1), East Grand Rapids (2-0) at Holland West Ottawa (1-1), Ravenna (1-1) at Montague (1-1).

Bay and Thumb

Lapeer West (2-0) at Lapeer East (2-0)

These two schools will merge next fall, making this the final matchup between the rivals. West owns a 28-10 edge in the series dating to 1975, including seven wins in the teams’ last eight against each other. That said, East has bounced back from last fall’s three-win showing and outscored its first two opponents by a combined score of 51-0. West is playing this fall for a third straight playoff berth but this week for its first 3-0 start since 2009.

Others that caught my eye: Birmingham Brother Rice (2-0) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (2-0), Essexville Garber (2-0) at Frankenmuth (1-1), Bay City Western (1-1) at Saginaw Arthur Hill (2-0), Freeland (2-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (2-0).

Lower Up North

Traverse City Central (1-1) at Traverse City West (1-1)

The Nowak-Olson Memorial Trophy is again on the line with these rivals having split their last eight games against each other. This matchup also could go a long way toward deciding the Big North Conference champion. Central won 42-28 last season and finished undefeated in the league, while West settled for a second-place tie. Both rebounded from opening-night losses to win their first league game last week.

Others that caught my eye: Petoskey (2-0) at Cadillac (2-0), Traverse City St. Francis (1-1) at Elk Rapids (2-0), Suttons Bay (0-2) at Kingsley (1-1).

Upper Peninsula

Crystal Falls Forest Park (2-0) at Hurley, Wis. (2-0)

These two have built quite a rivalry in the Great Western Conference. At least one has won the league title over the last three seasons, and twice during that time they shared it – last season with Bessemer in a three-way split. The Trojans haven’t been tested yet, but Hurley had to fend off a challenge last week from Lake Linden-Hubbell in an eventual 30-20 win.

Others that caught my eye: Gwinn (1-1) at Manistique (0-2), Marquette (2-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (1-1), Powers North Central (2-0) at Lake Linden Hubbell (1-1), Kingsford (2-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (0-2).

Southwest and Border

Kalamazoo Central (2-0) at Portage Northern (2-0)

The Maroon Giants are back in some conversations they’ve missed out on the last few seasons thanks to their first 2-0 start since 2008 that could become their first 3-0 kickoff since 2004 – also the last season Kalamazoo Central made the playoffs. Portage Northern has beaten the Giants in eight straight, however, including 48-0 last season.

Others that caught my eye: Saugatuck (2-0) at Decatur (2-0), Plainwell (2-0) at Dowagiac (2-0), Portage Central (2-0) at Mattawan (1-1), Stevensville Lakeshore (2-0) at St. Joseph (2-0).

Greater Detroit and Southeast

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (2-0) at Utica Eisenhower (1-1)

Chippewa Valley also has made its way back into the spotlight with its first 2-0 start since 2006 that’s included wins against regular playoff qualifiers Romeo and Dearborn. The good news for the Big Reds is they beat Eisenhower by two touchdowns in 2012 – which has be a confidence builder heading into a rematch with a rival that lost to a powerful Rockford team on opening night and is expected to be in Macomb Area Conference Red mix again.

Others that caught my eye: Warren Woods Tower (2-0) at Madison Heights Madison (2-0), Oak Park (2-0) at Rochester Adams (1-1), Harper Woods Chandler Park (2-0) at Warren DeLaSalle (1-1), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-0) at Clinton (2-0).

Mid-Michigan

Grand Ledge (0-2) at Lansing Sexton (2-0)

The surging Big Reds have made this game the no-brainer best in this area this week. Sexton has opened with solid wins over Chelsea and Monroe, and the smallest school in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue now takes on the second-largest school in the entire Lansing area. Keep in mind the Comets’ start didn’t come against slouches; East Kentwood and Holland West Ottawa are among the strongest programs on the west side of the state. But Grand Ledge has to feel some urgency heading into a competitive league schedule.

Others that caught my eye: Fowlerville (1-1) at DeWitt (2-0), Portland (2-0) at Lansing Catholic (0-2), Haslett (1-1) at St. Johns (1-1), Charlotte (2-0) at Eaton Rapids (1-1).

PHOTO: Flint Carman-Ainsworth (blue helmets) handled a solid Saginaw Heritage team last week, but gets another challenge this weekend in Birmingham Brother Rice. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)