Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: Week 1 in Review

September 3, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Let’s start our first weekly review of MHSAA football action with some of the results you won’t see among our list of most significant from opening weekend:

Kent City’s first opening night win over Ravenna in 15 tries and Beal City’s incredible 61-0 win over rival Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart. Kalamazoo Central’s 14-13 win over neighbor Loy Norrix and Kinde-North Huron’s 28-14 win over reigning MHSAA 8-player champion Deckerville.

All are big-time results, no doubt. But below I’ve tried to tell you about five more from each region of our state, organized by the winner in each game, that might have bigger impacts as we move immediately forward with most leagues schedules kicking off in three days. 

West Michigan

Zeeland West 44, Detroit Country Day 28

Country Day came into this season with plenty of deserved hype returning most of its star power from last season’s run to the MHSAA Division 4 Final. But Zeeland West has plenty of championship experience too, and its tough running proved too much for the Yellowjackets. Click to read more from the Oakland Press.

Also noted:

East Grand Rapids 24, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 7 – The Pioneers began making up for last season’s first playoff miss since 2000 with a solid win over another perennial power.

Grand Rapids Christian 41, Grand Rapids South Christian 13 – New faces abound, but the reigning Division 3 champion won big over last season’s Division 4 title winner.

Muskegon Oakridge 31, Grand Rapids West Catholic 25 – The Eagles are soaring high to start this fall after finishing 2012 with a 13-6 District Final loss to West Catholic.

Rockford 23, Utica Eisenhower 6 – Given these teams’ histories, no one would be stunned if they met again in 13 weeks in the MHSAA Division 1 Final. 

Greater Detroit

Oak Park 25, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 20

Oak Park entered its opener with the opportunity to show last season’s historic run wasn’t over with 2012’s final horn. Four touchdowns during the second half against the reigning MHSAA Division 3 runner-up proved the Knights will be talked about plenty again in 2013. Read more in the Detroit Free Press.

Also noted: 

Detroit Cass Tech 18, Southfield 14 – Two-time reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech and quarterback Jayru Campbell edged an improved Bluejays team to start 1-0.

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 27, Dearborn 20 (2 OT) – Chippewa Valley also beat Dearborn on opening night last season on the way to its first  playoff berth in three seasons; this one could be prove just as important.

Rochester Adams 12, Clarkston 7 – Coming off its first playoff miss since 1996, Adams won for the first time in its last four tries against one of the biggest and best programs in the state.

Lake Orion 35, Oxford 30 – If this was an indication, these two should again be contenders in their respective divisions of the Oakland Activities Association. Lake Orion has held the Double "O" Pigskin Trophy three of four seasons since the series was restarted in 2010; the teams formerly played for the prize from 1962-83. 

Southwest and Border

Battle Creek Harper Creek 27, Mattawan 7

Both of these teams should be contenders in their respective divisions of the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference, and both will run their way to success again this fall. It will be interesting to see in eight weeks just how similar their paths finish after a game that would’ve been much closer if not for some untimely Mattawan turnovers. Click to read more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Also noted: 

Battle Creek Central 15, Benton Harbor 0 – The Bearcats ended their 18-game winless streak with their first shutout since 2007.

Portage Central 55, Sturgis 0 – Sturgis has a Division 1 college prospect in quarterback Chance Stewart, which made this arguably the most impressive defensive performance statewide.

Watervliet 43, Gobles 14 – Simply put, this was a solid nonleague matchup between teams that each won eight games last season. Watervliet has the head start on repeating that feat.

Edwardsburg 34, Otsego 7 – Different teams, same story as above as both are playoff regulars that should again be in the mix by the end of the season. 

Bay and Thumb

Saginaw Swan Valley 27, Saginaw Nouvel 20

Both might end this season at Ford Field after Swan Valley missed by one win a year ago and Nouvel missed by two after winning Division 7 in 2011. But as for the best in Saginaw, it looks like the Vikings at this point after running back Alex Grace ran for more than 200 yards in one of the state’s most intriguing openers. Click to read more from the Saginaw News.

Also noted:

New Lothrop 28, Traverse City St. Francis 7 – The Hornets traveled north for a tough opener and came back with plenty of momentum for the Genesee Area Conference Blue schedule.

Hemlock 19, Frankenmuth 12 – Hemlock, the 2012 Tri-Valley Conference Central champion, held on to beat the 2012 TVC East winner.

Montrose 38, Reese 8 – This looked to be a close game between 10-win teams from a year ago, but Montrose instead avenged last season’s 21-point loss to the Rockets in a bigger way.

Saginaw Arthur Hill 24, Goodrich 14 – Arthur Hill has struggled since it last playoff berth in 2008, but appears on the rebound with this reversal of a 41-6 loss to Goodrich in 2012. 

Mid-Michigan

Ithaca 57, Williamston 13

This wasn’t really close, but was significant nonetheless. The win was Ithaca’s 43rd straight, tying the record for longest victory streak in MHSAA history in which all games were won during the playoff era. This week, the Yellowjackets face rival St. Charles with a chance to move up the list again. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted: 

Jackson Northwest 35, Hillsdale 20 – Only a record performance by Ithaca could trump what might be Northwest’s best football win since the mid-2000s. Hillsdale is coming off an 11-win season, and Northwest has won one game in each of the last three years.

Lansing Sexton 21, Chelsea 14 – Beating a team with 14 straight playoff berths will no doubt help the Big Reds return to the postseason after missing last season.

Pewamo-Westphalia 20, Lansing Catholic 7 – This reversed a 24-point loss to the Cougars last season as the Pirates began their quest for a third straight MHSAA Semifinals run.

Eaton Rapids 44, Leslie 0 – New Greyhounds coach Mike Smith, most known from his success at Holt, started his Eaton Rapids rebuilding effort with the team’s biggest win since 1996. 

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee 36, Manistique 30

Negaunee had to be on its game for a tough Mid-Peninsula Conference opener against another playoff team from 2012. But the Miners held on through a late Manistique run and scored last to open league play and the season 1-0. Big plays were key, as Negaunee scored on an 80-yard kickoff return and 66-yard run. The Miners continued claim of the Oscar Wassberg Trophy, named for the former coach of both teams. Click to read more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Also noted:

Cedarville 42, Posen 40 – The Trojans didn’t feel much of a challenge until Week 8 last season, but survived this one to kick off its 8-player season.

Ishpeming 36, Iron Mountain 0 – The reigning MHSAA Division 7 champion kept rolling with a win over another playoff team from last season.

Bessemer 28, Hancock 26 (OT) – The last three games between these two have been decided by a touchdown or less, but all in favor of the Bessemer-led co-op.

Marquette 31, Traverse City Central 23 – Marquette should get a solid boost at playoff selection time from this win as it goes for a fourth straight postseason berth. 

Lower Up North

Reed City 39, Big Rapids 26

As stated earlier last week, this game eventually decided last season’s Central State Activities Association title in favor of Reed City. This was the fourth straight opening-night win for the Coyotes over rival Big Rapids. This game is played for the Pioneer Trophy. Click to read more from the Cadillac News.

Also noted: 

Alpena 15, Escanaba 7 – Alpena has won only one game in each of the last two seasons and was outscored by Escanaba by a combined 72-0 over 2011 and 2012.

Hillman 55, Gaylord St. Mary 54 – These teams combined for only 41 points when they met to open 2012. This time, they qualified for the MHSAA record book.  

Charlevoix 20, St. Ignace 0 – Coming off one win in 2012, and against a team that was 24-2 combined over the last two seasons, Charlevoix pulled off one of the biggest upsets statewide.

Maple City Glen Lake 27, Boyne City 13 – Glen Lake continued rolling off last season’s best finish in more than a decade by beating again the team it defeated to open the 2012 playoffs.

Trophy Games

Each week the MHSAA highlights trophy games played across the state. A few were mentioned above, with these the rest we knew about heading into the weekend. 

  • Bull Bowl – This is one of our newest trophies, established in 2011 for the opener between Fremont and Sparta. The Spartans gained a 2-1 advantage in the series last week. Final: Sparta 6, Fremont 0.
  • Battle of 127 Trophy – Hudson and Addison have met for a number of years for this trophy sponsored by a local insurance company and local automotive group. Final: Hudson 46, Addison 0.
  • Battle for The Paddle – Neighbors Sanford Meridian and Bullock Creek have met on opening night for the last dozen seasons. Bullock Creek owns a 7-5 advantage during that time. Final: Meridian 26, Bullock Creek 22.
  • State Bank Traveling Trophy – Linden and Fenton have played for this prize dating to 1976, including on opening night the last two seasons. Final: Fenton 39, Linden 27.
  • Little Brown Jug – Two games were played for these last week: Napoleon and Brooklyn Columbia Central continuing a series begun in 1967, and Manton and Mesick. Finals: Manton 29, Mesick 0; Columbia Central 26, Napoleon 18.
  • Border Battle Cheese Trophy – Hurley (Wis.) made it eight straight opening-night wins over rival Ironwood. Final: Hurley 47, Ironwood 7. 

PHOTO: Grand Ledge made this stop, but fell a few short in a 16-14 opening-night loss at home against East Kentwood.