Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
A Game for Every Fan: Semifinals
November 16, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Starting with this Saturday's Semifinals, every team left in the MHSAA football playoffs hits the road.
Some face longer trips than others. But all 32 hope their final journeys last long enough to land them at Ford Field for an extended Thanksgiving celebration.
Every Semifinal is Saturday, and all but the two games at Northern Michigan University kick off at 1 p.m. Check out Score Center for all game times and scores as they come in. Four games again will be streamed live on FoxSportsDetroit.com's Prep Zone: Muskegon vs. Caledonia, Battle Creek Harper Creek vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary, Portland vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard and Flint Beecher vs. Detroit Loyola.
Below are expanded previews of all 16 Semifinal matchups, complete with some of the players to watch and what they and their teammates have accomplished so far.
Division 1
Rockford (10-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-4) at Battle Creek Central
This is a rematch of arguably last season’s most competitive Semifinal, a 23-20 overtime DCC win. Rockford eliminated favorite Clarkston last week to reach the Semifinals for the 11th time since coach Ralph Munger took over the team in 1992. The Rams again do well what they've always done – run hard with a variety of backs and keep opponents off the scoreboard. Rockford has given up more than 20 points only twice, and no opponent has scored more than 28. Senior Sam Reinke has run for 846 of the team’s 2,604 rush yards behind a line averaging nearly 240 pounds per blocker. They’ll have to stop University of Michigan commit Wyatt Shallman at defensive tackle. Shamrocks senior running backs Anthony Darkangelo and David Houle both played big parts in last season’s Semifinal win and are relied on again. Darkangelo has run for 1,036 yards and 14 scores this fall, with Houle adding 12 touchdowns.
Detroit Cass Tech (10-2) vs. Lake Orion (11-1) at Troy Athens
Reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech rebounded nicely after losing unexpectedly to Detroit Martin Luther King during the Public School League playoffs. The Technicians are again loaded with talent – defensive back Jourdan Lewis has committed to the University of Michigan and lineman Dennis Finley will sign with Michigan State – and sophomore quarterback Jayru Campbell tied an MHSAA Finals record with five touchdown passes in last season’s win over DCC. Lake Orion won the Division 1 title in 2011 and is playing for its third Ford Field appearance in five seasons. The Dragons only loss this fall was by seven to Clarkston, and they've beaten some heavy hitters the last two weeks in Utica Eisenhower and Macomb Dakota. The defense is giving up only 202 yards per game, while the offense relies on three senior playmakers. Quarterback Derek DeLaura has thrown for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns, and 6-foot-6 receiver Chaz Miller is averaging 20.3 yards per catch with eight TDs. Running back Jacob Miller has rushed for 1,277 yards and 19 scores.
Division 2
Muskegon (11-1) vs. Caledonia (9-3) at Hudsonville
Save for a one-point loss to Zeeland East in Week 9, Muskegon has been considered by many all season as the team to beat in this division. Senior running back John King and senior quarterback Jalen Smith have gained plenty of yards, King running for 1,565 and 20 touchdowns and Smith for 854 and 12 scores. Wins over Orchard Lake St. Mary, Rockford, Lowell (twice) and Midland have been most impressive, and teams rushing the ball have had a tremendously tough time gaining only 70 yards per game. This game could be strength on strength, as Caledonia’s rush game chews up yards in bunches – three Fighting Scots have gained at least 830, and four are averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry. Senior quarterback Ryan Zoet doesn't just direct traffic – he’s the team’s leading rusher with 917 yards plus 20 touchdowns on the ground, and he’s thrown for 1,248 yards and five more scores.
Birmingham Brother Rice (10-2) vs. Wyandotte Roosevelt (11-1) at Gibraltar Carlson
Brother Rice won last season’s Division 2 championship on the shoulders of running back Devin Church, and the back carrying the load this time is junior Brian Walker. He’s rushed for 1,352 yards and 20 touchdowns for an offense that’s gained 4,214 yards in total offense. As usual, that’s come against incredible competition, with Brother Rice’s best win likely a 20-14 victory over Detroit Catholic Central. Senior linebacker Jon Reschke, who has committed to Michigan State, leads a defense giving up only 234 yards per game. Aside from a midseason loss to Brownstown Woodhaven that Roosevelt avenged in the District opener, its slate of results includes plenty of single-digit scores for opponents. The Bears held teams to eight or fewer points eight times, and in its 11 wins gave up only seven points per game. Senior quarterback Kevin Matejko has been solid on the other side of the ball with 1,589 yards and 18 touchdowns passing.
Division 3
DeWitt (10-2) vs. Grand Rapids Christian (11-1) at East Kentwood
Grand Rapids Christian might be the scariest offensive team in Michigan, with 144 of its 498 points coming over the last three weeks against teams that were a combined 26-4. Junior receiver Drake Harris already has committed to Michigan State, and he’s averaging 20.4 yards per catch – which is an even bigger deal when he has 76 catches and 20 that have gone for touchdowns. Getting it there is senior Alex VanDeVusse, who has thrown for 3,226 yards and 35 touchdowns and run for 652 yards and 12 scores. DeWitt is known for all-state quarterbacks, and has a pair of standouts in junior Jacob Heath and sophomore Jacob Johnson. Heath filled in for six games while Johnson was injured during the regular season, throwing for 1,428 yards and 15 scores. Johnson returned in Week 9, and in just more than five games has thrown for 998 yards and 13 touchdowns and run for six more TDs. Senior Ryan Anderson has benefited from both, catching 68 passes for 1,092 yards and 14 scores.
Battle Creek Harper Creek (10-2) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary's (10-2) at Chelsea
After just missing making Ford Field last season with a four-point Semifinal loss to eventual champion St. Mary's, Harper Creek gets another chance with a rematch. The Beavers aren't scoring as many points as last season, although still 32.5 a game, but they’re giving up only 13 – and getting nearly three turnovers a game, with 17 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries. Senior Kasey Carson carries much of the load on offense, with 1,799 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. St. Mary's won last season running over opponents too, and two of its top three rushers from last season’s Final have been eating up yards again – senior Grant Niemiec has run for 1,587 yards and 23 touchdowns and senior Parker McInnis has gained 1,236 yards with 18 scores. St. Mary's owns wins this season over Division 1 semifinalists Detroit Cass Tech and Detroit Catholic Central.
Division 4
Comstock Park (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) at Grand Rapids Houseman Field
Comstock Park won its District in coach Mark Chapman’s first season of 2010, added a Regional title last fall, and this season won both plus its league championship – while knocking out favorite Grand Rapids Catholic Central two weeks ago. Senior quarterback Jake Brown is tough to stop, with 1,224 yards and 26 touchdowns rushing and 1,598 yards and 11 TDs passing. South Christian eliminated previously-undefeated Paw Paw and Dowagiac before beating Three Rivers last week, and also is keyed by a talented run/pass quarterback. Sophomore Jon Wassink has rushed for a team-high 713 yards and nine touchdowns and thrown for 2,564 yards and 23 scores.
Saginaw Swan Valley (10-2) vs. Detroit Country Day (10-2) at Ortonville Brandon
After dropping two games midway through the regular season, Swan Valley has dominated, scoring at least 35 points in all of the next six while giving up more than 14 only once. This is its third Semifinal berth in seven seasons, and it’s been made possible in part by the running of sophomore Alex Grace, who has rushed for 2,091 yards and 27 touchdowns. Country Day is looking to get back to the Finals after back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2007 and 2008. Junior quarterback Tyler Wiegers has been tremendously efficient and careful with the ball, completing 62 percent of his passes for 1,822 yards and 18 touchdowns with just one interception. Junior running back Richard Wilson has run for 1,074 yards and 24 scores.
Division 5
Menominee (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Former player and assistant coach Joe Noha has done retired longtime coach Ken Hofer proud in bringing Menominee back to the Semifinals in his first season after taking over the program. The Maroons are a one-point loss to Kingsford from being undefeated and are getting contributions from a variety of players led by leading rushers James Brown and Devon Harris, both juniors. West Catholic rebounded from a 1-3 start to reach its third straight Semifinal and beat playoff opponents that were a combined 28-2. The Falcons have a 1,000-yard running back in junior Andy Corey (1,435 yards, 11 TDs), a 2,000-yard quarterback in sophomore Travis Russell (2,143 yards and 20 TDs) and a 1,000-yard receiver in senior David Kuzma (1,084 yards and 11 TDs).
Portland (11-1) vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (11-1) at Howell
Portland is back in the Semifinals for the first time since the first MHSAA playoffs in 1975, and after knocking off reigning champion Flint Powers last week looks like the team to stop. That lone loss came to reigning runner-up Lansing Catholic, by nine, and Portland also beat Division 3 Semifinalist DeWitt big while going 6-1 against playoff teams so far. Portland is known for tough runners, and junior Jacob Kimmell is the latest; he’s gained a team-high 1,278 yards and scored 17 touchdowns on the ground. But the Raiders can’t look past Gabriel Richard. The Fighting Irish handed Pontiac Notre Dame its first loss of the season in Week 9 and since has cruised by beating its three postseason opponents by a combined 89-6. Senior Ashton Hundley runs behind a sizable offensive line and has gained 1,178 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Division 6
Shelby (10-2) vs. Ithaca (12-0) at Ferris State
Coming out of the West Michigan Conference, Shelby has seen as strong of competition as any team playing in the small-school divisions. And that makes the success of senior running back Nathan Lentz all the more impressive – he’s run for 1,155 yards and 17 touchdowns, caught 20 passes and scored on four of those, and also has a touchdown apiece off kickoff, punt and interception returns. But the Tigers' defense must be up to the challenge of stopping two-time reigning champion Ithaca, which has won 40 straight games and scores nearly 51 points per. Junior quarterback Travis Smith is one of the best in the state and has thrown for 2,264 yards and 36 touchdowns while running for another 732 yards and 13 scores.
Constantine (10-2) vs. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
The route taken by reigning runner-up Constantine is comparable to that of any team still alive. It has beaten three playoff opponents that were a combined 29-1 coming into those games. Constantine doesn't trick anyone with its strategy – the team has run for 5,096 yards and thrown for 405, with senior Ben Mallo gaining 1,627 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground and senior Payton White adding 1,324 yards and 27 scores. St. Mary is looking to return to the Finals for its third time in eight seasons and has won at least 10 games for the fourth time in five years. Its imbalance on offensive is similar – 4,133 rushing yards and 174 through the air. But there are a few more people carrying the load with five players running for between 580 and 725 yards, in part because teammates have picked up the slack after the season-ending injury to leading rusher and scorer Josh Czarniowski.
Division 7
Ishpeming (11-1) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Ishpeming, looking to get back to Ford Field for the second time in three seasons, has given up more than 14 points only once – in its lone loss, to Negaunee – and has yielded only 24 total in three playoff games. Senior Eric Kostreva is a starting linebacker and the team’s leading rusher with 1,153 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. After making the Finals last fall for the first time, P-W recovered from two late losses to get in position to return. The names to know are different this fall, but they’re equally talented. Junior quarterback Kyle Nurenberg has run for 563 yards and 15 scores and thrown for 762 and 10 TDs, and senior tailback Jered Myszak has rushed for 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns.
Detroit Loyola (12-0) vs. Flint Beecher (8-4) at Fenton
Loyola is back in the Semifinals for the second straight season and follows the lead of one of the top scorers in MHSAA football history. Senior Keymonn’e Gabriel has run for 2,195 yards and 32 touchdowns, and with his 48 two-point conversions has 288 points total – tied for third-most in MHSAA history for a single season. Beecher got into the playoffs as a 5-4 additional qualifier, but limited Hamady and Saginaw Nouvel to a combined 22 points over the last two weeks. The winner will celebrate a historic first. Neither has played in an MHSAA championship game.
Division 8
St. Ignace (12-0) vs. Beal City (12-0) at Traverse City’s Thirlby Field
The Saints are playing to reach the Finals for the first time since 1985 and got past a major obstacle in formerly undefeated Felch North Dickinson last week. St. Ignace presents opponents a number of weapons to stop – three backs have run for at least 630 yards and 10 touchdowns, and junior quarterback Travis Snyder has thrown for 1,443 yards and 25 scores. Beal City is a two-time MHSAA champion and is scoring 40 points per game while giving up only 11. Senior Sam Schafer plays a large part in both as a starting linebacker and quarterback who has thrown for 1,546 yards and 19 TDs.
Muskegon Catholic Central (9-3) vs. Harbor Beach (11-1) at Alma College
Harbor Beach has beaten two excellent teams the last two weeks in New Lothrop and Waterford Our Lady, and is led by dangerous junior quarterback Eli Kraft (740 yards and 14 TDs rushing, 1,129 yards and 11 TDs passing). But the Pirates will have their toughest challenge yet in MCC, which defeated reigning champion Mendon last week and reigning runner-up Fowler the week before. The Crusaders have run for 3,447 yards, led by junior Alex Lewandoski’s 1,121.
PHOTO: Portland players celebrate their Regional title after beating reigning MHSAA Division 5 champion Flint Powers Catholic on Friday. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)