Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

A Game for Every Fan - District Openers

October 25, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

What started as more than 600 MHSAA football teams is down to a mere 272.

And eight are no doubt enjoying a whirlwind this week they've never experienced before.

Detroit Consortium, Detroit East English, Grand Rapids Northview, Mayville, Saginaw Valley Lutheran, South Lyon East, Swartz Creek and Walled Lake Northern will make their first playoff appearances this weekend. Only East English can claim to know what that's like, with the first-year school made up mostly of students who formerly attended now-closed Detroit Crockett and Finney.

In case you're wondering, that leaves 30 schools that have never made the MHSAA playoffs. But this week is about those still alive -- and 136 games that will be played all over the state.

See below for a few of the most intriguing matchups from each division. Visit the MHSAA Score Center all weekend for updated scores and standings, and if you're not attending a game tonight, make sure to check in at FoxSportsDetroit.com for one of four live-streamed contests: Lapeer West at DeWitt, Farmington Hills Harrison at Fenton, Leslie at Portland and Howell at Walled Lake Northern.

Division 1

Detroit Catholic Central (5-4) at Hartland (8-1)

To no one’s surprise, reigning MHSAA runner-up Detroit Catholic Central made the playoffs at 5-4, thanks to its tough schedule and high playoff point average. The Shamrocks have reached the postseason 16 of the last 18 seasons. Hartland is back for the third time in five – and coming off a league title, can also tie its school record for wins set in 2008.

Others that caught my eye: Grand Ledge (7-2) at Holland West Ottawa (7-2), Livonia Stevenson (6-3) at Livonia Churchill (9-0), Canton (6-3) at Plymouth (7-2), Dearborn (6-3) at Dearborn Fordson (7-2).

Division 2

Birmingham Brother Rice (7-2) at Port Huron (7-2)

The reigning MHSAA runner-up in this division, Brother Rice didn’t make last week’s Catholic League Prep Bowl but has been considered among the state’s handful of elite teams since the first week of practice. Port Huron hasn’t gotten nearly the same hype, but won two playoff games last season and is led by quarterback Mark Chapman – who has committed to sign with Central Michigan this winter.

Others that caught my eye: Wyandotte Roosevelt (8-1) at Brownstown Woodhaven (8-1), Detroit Martin Luther King (6-3) at Southfield (6-3), Portage Central (6-3) at Portage Northern (7-2), Grand Rapids Northview (7-2) at Lowell (7-2).

Division 3

Zeeland West (6-3) at Zeeland East (9-0)

It’s hard to believe it’s been two months since these two squared off for what ended up a 60-52 East win. The Chix have continued to rise, and now look like the favorite in Division 3 after downing Muskegon by a point last week. But West – last season’s Division 4 champion – knows a few things about winning in the playoffs, and would love nothing better than to end its rival’s season abruptly.

Others that caught my eye: Carleton Airport (6-3) at Milan (9-0), Marysville (6-3) at Detroit East English (7-2), Charlotte (6-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (7-2), Fruitport (8-1) at Grand Rapids Christian (8-1).

Division 4

Williamston (6-3) at Marshall (6-3), Saturday

It hasn’t been long enough for Williamston supporters to forget the 2009 District Final between these two, a 27-26 Marshall win after which the Redhawks went on to win the Division 4 championship. The Hornets advanced to the Final the next season before falling by four to Grand Rapids Catholic Central. Both won to set up this week’s opportunity – the Redhawks their last two games and Williamston its last three.

Others that caught my eye: Otsego (6-3) at Dowagiac (9-0), Comstock Park (8-1) at Allendale (8-1), Saginaw Valley Lutheran (6-3) at Saginaw Swan Valley (7-2), Richmond (6-3) at Marine City (8-1).

Division 5

Leslie (8-1) at Portland (8-1)

Both have become staples of the postseason – Leslie is in the playoffs for the ninth time in 13 seasons and Portland for the 10th straight. The difference for the Blackhawks is those previous appearances, including a run to Ford Field in 2008, came in Division 6. Portland is arguably more used to this level of competition – and has wins over Division 3 playoff teams Owosso, DeWitt and Charlotte this fall.

Others that caught my eye: Lake Fenton (7-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (8-1), Buchanan (7-2) at Muskegon Oakridge (9-0), Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-3) at Hopkins (9-0), Carrollton (8-1) at Frankenmuth (9-0).

Division 6

Detroit Consortium (6-3) at Madison Heights Madison (8-1)

In its fourth season, Consortium earned its first winning record and first playoff berth. The Cougars earned the opportunity to face Madison, a playoff veteran with eight straight appearances and four straight seasons with at least eight wins. The Eagles built their record against a number of much larger schools, with their only loss by three to Warren Fitzgerald way back on Aug. 31.

Others that caught my eye: Maple City Glen Lake (8-1) at Boyne City (8-1), Montague (8-1) at Hemlock (8-1), Constantine (7-2) at Watervliet (8-1), Michigan Center (8-1) at Grass Lake (8-1).

Division 7

Royal Oak Shrine (5-4) vs. Detroit Loyola (9-0), Saturday at U-D Jesuit

It’s easy to predict Loyola will finish this season with a championship after advancing to the Regional round in 2011 and running all over everyone but Catholic League rival Waterford Our Lady this fall (the Bulldogs beat the Lakers by only 10). Shrine lost to Loyola 51-20 just two weeks ago – but the Knights closed with a shutout of playoff qualifier Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett and could make this rematch much closer.

Others that caught my eye: Union City (6-3) at Pewamo-Westphalia (6-3), Bridgman (6-3) at Lawton (8-1), Dansville (7-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (8-1), Flint Hamady (6-3) at Burton Bendle (7-2).

Division 8

St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (7-1) at Climax-Scotts (9-0)

A win would give Climax-Scotts its fourth straight 10-win season and ninth over the last decade – and only Bellevue got within 20 points of the Panthers during the regular season. But Lake Michigan Catholic quietly has made the playoffs three straight years, and actually has eight wins this fall – it beat rival Michigan Lutheran in an 8-player game that did not count toward its 11-player playoff point average.

Others that caught my eye: Bessemer (6-2) at Felch North Dickinson (8-0), Pittsford (7-2) at Waterford Our Lady (7-2), Stephenson (7-2) at Pickford (7-2), Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at L’Anse (7-2).

8-player

Akron-Fairgrove (7-2) at Owendale-Gagetown (7-2)

These two have been rivals going back to nearly their beginnings on the football field and long before they became 8-player programs in 2009. Both play in the Mid-Michigan 8-Man League, and this is the third time they’ll play each other this season. And there’s some intrigue in that – Owendale-Gagetown won the first game, but Akron-Fairgrove won the second, which counted toward the league standings and eventually gave the Vikings the championship.

Others that caught my eye: Waldron (6-3) at Battle Creek St. Philip (6-3), Eben Junction Superior Central (6-2) at Rapid River (7-2).

PHOTO: Saginaw Valley Lutheran quarterback Logan Gatza drops back to pass against Ithaca on Sept. 7. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com)