Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Playoffs: Regional Finals in Review
December 16, 2011
The first MHSAA football champion of 2011 will be crowned Friday, and by the end of Saturday we’ll know who will play for the rest Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.
Here’s one take of the most significant results from the postseason’s third weekend, plus links to coverage from the biggest games and a brief look at all 16 Semifinals coming up Saturday.
Let us know if I missed a game or a highlight I should've mentioned by posting below. And click here for results, schedules and more. (Rankings below by The Associated Press' panel of media voters.)
1st and 10
DIVISON 1: Detroit Cass Tech 6, Warren DeLaSalle 0 – Before 2010, Cass Tech had never won a Regional championship. Now, the Technicians have won two straight.
DIVISION 2: Walled Lake Western 21, Port Huron 20 (2OT) – A celebration for one and heart break for the other as Walled Lake Western left with its first Regional title since 2001.
DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids 42, Holland 21 – The Pioneers avenged a Week 2 loss to the Dutch to extend their playoff winning streak to 28.
DIVISION 4: Grosse Ile 18, Battle Creek Pennfield 13 – Best win in Grosse Ile history? Gotta be up there. Pennfield was ranked No. 3, Grosse Ile unranked, and the victory gave the Red Devils their first 10-win season and second Semifinal berth ever.
DIVISION 5: Grand Rapids West Catholic 55, Menominee 34 – It came a game earlier this season, but West Catholic knocked Menominee out for the second in a row. West Catholic is ranked No. 7 and Menominee No. 5.
DIVISION 6: Ithaca 22, Montague 19 (OT) – The top-ranked Yellowjackets have had few scares during their 26-game winning streak, but No. 7 Montague likely gave them their biggest of the run.
DIVISION 7: Hudson 35, Detroit Loyola 0 – So much for rankings on this one. Loyola was No. 2 and Hudson No. 3, but the Tigers extended their own 26-game win streak in a big way.
DIVISION 8: St. Ignace La Salle 27, Crystal Falls Forest Park 14 – An Upper Peninsula team might again represent in the Division 8 Final in two weeks. But No. 4 St. Ignace will get its shot this time after knocking off near-annual Finals road-trippers, the Trojans, who came in ranked No. 6.
8-PLAYER: Rapid River 40, Engadine 0; Carsonville-Port Sanilac 47, Marine City Cardinal Mooney 0 – A coincidence that these Semifinals both ended in decisive shutouts. But they appear to be equally decisive statements about which teams belong in Friday’s first-ever MHSAA 8-player Final.
NUMBERS GAME
26 – Winning streaks by both Hudson and Ithaca thanks to Regional wins. Hudson is the reigning Division 7 champion and Ithaca won the Division 6 title in 2010, when both finished 14-0.
42 – Combined rushing touchdowns scored this season by Carsonville-Port Sanilac quarterback Hayden Adams and running backs Ryan Davis and Dan Rickett. All have at least 11 scores on the ground.
20 – Number of completions, in 20 attempts, Lansing Catholic quarterback Cooper Rush strung together to begin Friday’s win over Dowagiac. The streak tied the MHSAA record.
6 – Seasons, out of the last eight, that Rockford has advanced at least to the MHSAA Semifinals. The Rams will play in their second straight Saturday, and have won three MHSAA championships during that run.
MORE FANTASTIC FINISHES
Detroit Cass Tech 6, Warren DeLaSalle 0 – A bit of continuation on the above comment, as the Technicians clinched that second-straight Regional title with a touchdown run with 1:38 to play. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Rockford 30, Grand Blanc 28 – Rockford got up 23-7 before holding off a late charge by a Grand Blanc team averaging 54 points in this season’s playoffs heading into the night. Read more about it in the Grand Rapids Press.
Mount Pleasant 28, East Lansing 20 – East Lansing led by six with 11 minutes to play before Mount Pleasant, and especially its defense, took over. Find out more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
Almont 31, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 – Almont has strung together six straight winning seasons, but its only other Regional final of the 256-team playoff era ended in a loss to Lumen Christi in 2008. Two late touchdowns sent the Raiders to their first Semifinal. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
UP NEXT – 8-player FINAL and 11-player SEMIFNALS
8-PLAYER: Rapid River (11-1) vs. Carsonville-Port Sanilac (11-1) – 7 p.m. Friday at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome – The inaugural MHSAA 8-player Final matches teams separated by 382 miles and Mackinaw Bridge.
DIVISION 1: Rockford (11-1) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (11-1) – 1 p.m. at Battle Creek Central; Utica Eisenhower (11-1) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (9-3) – 1 p.m. at Troy Athens – Rockford, DCC and Utica Eisenhower are ranked 1-3, respectively, and Cass Tech didn’t make the top 10 heading into the playoffs. But the Technicians have proven their merit. The Rockford/DCC game is a rematch of the 1998 Class AA Final, which DCC won before these players had started elementary school. Eisenhower is playing for its fifth Finals berth, and first since 2003.
DIVISION 2: Lowell (11-1) vs. Walled Lake Western (11-1) – 11:30 a.m. at Central Michigan; Birmingham Brother Rice (8-4) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (9-3) – 1 p.m. at West Bloomfield – Brother Rice beat King on opening night 28-21 and entered the postseason tied for No. 7 in the state poll with Wyandotte-Roosevelt, which King shut out last week. Lowell and Walled Lake Western aren’t completely unfamiliar either – they faced off on opening night 2010. The Warriors have won their three playoff games by a combined 11 points, and will look to harness a Lowell offense that has scored fewer than 35 only once during October and November.
DIVISION 3: Mount Pleasant (12-0) vs. East Grand Rapids (9-3) – 1 p.m. at Ferris State; Battle Creek Harper Creek (12-0) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary (10-2) – 1 p.m. at Jackson’s Withington Stadium – Three of the top four in the Associated Press poll plus the reigning state champ making up this field, and the No. 1 Oilers are the next to try to halt EGR’s playoff winning streak (see above), which has included wins over Mount Pleasant three of the last four seasons. Orchard Lake St. Mary also is a regular in this round, coming off three MHSAA runner-up finishes in the last four seasons. Harper Creek's last Semifinal appearance, in 1999, also was against the Eaglets.
DIVISION 4: Comstock Park (10-2) vs. Zeeland West (12-0) – 1 p.m. at Jenison; Grosse Ile (10-2) vs. Marine City (12-0) – 1 p.m. at Birmingham Groves – Top-ranked Marine City and No. 2 Zeeland West are likely heavy favorites against unranked opponents. But like Grosse Ile (see above), Comstock Park is riding high in the underdog role and is in its first Semifinal since 1983.
DIVISION 5: Grand Rapids West Catholic (10-2) vs. Lansing Catholic (12-0) – 1 p.m. at East Kentwood; Almont (11-1) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (8-4) – 1 p.m. at Ortonville Brandon – Last season’s champion West Catholic must now defend against this fall’s top-ranked favorite Lansing Catholic. But the other game has similar intrigue: Almont is No. 4 and knocked off annual giant Jackson Lumen Christi, while Flint Powers knocked off a giant itself on the way here in No. 3 Millington.
DIVISION 6: Iron Mountain (11-0) vs. Ithaca (12-0) – 1 p.m. at Northern Michigan; Constantine (10-2) vs. Ecorse (10-1) – 1 p.m. at Gibraltar-Carlson – Top-ranked Ithaca is headed back to the Superior Dome for the second straight season, and knocked off No. 3 Iron Mountain in the same round, same location on the way to last year’s MHSAA title. Constantine is looking to break through playing in its third straight Semifinal, but faces an Ecorse team that has won 10 games for the first time.
DIVISION 7: Traverse City St. Francis (11-1) vs. Saginaw Nouvel (11-0) – 2:30 p.m. at Central Michigan; Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. Hudson (12-0) – 1 p.m. at Vicksburg – All four of these teams entered the playoffs ranked among the top six, and St. Francis, Nouvel and Hudson have combined to win an MHSAA championship six straight seasons (Nouvel’s two came in Division 6). P-W has never played in a final – but also has never been 12-0.
DIVISION 8: St. Ignace La Salle (12-0) vs. Fowler (10-2) – 1 p.m. at Traverse City’s Thirlby Field; Mendon (12-0) vs. New Lothrop (12-0) – 1 p.m. at Howell – Mendon has taken down two top-eight teams so far this postseason, but No. 3 New Lothrop might be the toughest still with a defense giving up 3.9 points per game. The winner will take on a rejuvenated power – St. Ignace is playing for its first MHSAA Final berth since 1985, while Fowler is looking to get back to Detroit for the first time since 1998.
(Photo courtesy of Terry McNamara Photography.)