Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Playoffs: District Finals in Review

December 16, 2011

Three weeks remain in this MHSAA football season, and just two for our 8-player teams. That means we’re down to 68 total still practicing and pursuing championships either in two weeks at the Superior Dome or three at Ford Field.

Here’s a look at some of the best from the playoffs' second weekend, plus links to coverage from the biggest games and my take on those to watch in every division this weekend. 

Again, if I missed a game or a highlight I should've mentioned, post below and let us know. And click here for results, schedules and more. (Rankings below by The Associated Press' panel of media voters.)

GREAT EIGHT

DIVISON 1: Detroit Catholic Central 21, Canton 14 – This has become something of an expected matchup, with these two facing off in the playoffs four times over the last 10 seasons, including two of the last three. DCC has won all four matchups, and this time the Shamrocks were ranked No. 2 and Canton No. 6.

DIVISION 2: Lowell 36, Muskegon 7 – The Red Arrows increased their playoff winning streak over Muskegon to three straight. Lowell came in No. 2 and Muskegon No. 3, and the Red Arrows now become the heavy state favorite with No. 1 Farmington Hills Harrison also losing (see below).  

DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids 45, Grand Rapids Christian 27 – Their 50-49 game in Week 9 (which Grand Rapids Christian won) made statewide waves, but this one was not nearly as close. The Pioneers have three losses this season, but appear to be hitting the gear that has resulted in five straight MHSAA titles.

DIVISION 4: Battle Creek Pennfield 14, Lansing Sexton 6 – By rankings this wasn’t an upset. But considering Sexton shared a league title with three Class A schools – including one still alive in Division 3 – and that the Big Reds beat Pennfield 47-14 in last year’s District final, there’s a lot here with which to be impressed. 

DIVISION 5: Flint Powers 28, Millington 7 – This arguably was the stunner of the weekend – Millington was ranked No. 2, Powers unranked – but maybe shouldn’t be as big of a shock. The Cardinals indeed were undefeated, and Powers has three losses. But those came to No. 1 Lansing Catholic, Division 7 No. 1 Saginaw Nouvel, and Class A Davison.

DIVISION 6: Ithaca 28, Montrose Hill-McCloy 13 – Despite some close games elsewhere in this bracket, this one wins out because Ithaca is ranked No. 1 and Montrose came in No. 2. The Yellowjackets also knocked out the Rams last season on the way to winning the MHSAA title.

DIVISION 7: Hudson 22, Union City 14 – Both came in undefeated, with Hudson No. 3 and Union City tied for No. 7 in the final Associated Press poll. But Hudson ended Union City’s best season in a decade.

DIVISION 8: Mendon 28, Muskegon Catholic Central 21 – The conclusion of this incredibly competitive district pitted the teams that were tied for the top spot in the state poll heading into the playoffs. But the schedule won’t get too much easier for Mendon with five more of the top 10 still alive.

8-PLAYER: Carsonville-Port Sanilac 53, Bellaire 22 – The rematch of last season’s unofficial championship game went the Tigers’ way again. The teams also met in the regular-season finale last season after winning their respective leagues in something of an 8-player title game because the MHSAA didn’t begin sponsoring playoffs until this fall.

NUMBERS GAME

1 – Number of District championships won by Hemlock, thanks to Friday’s 27-20 win over Freeland in Division 5. The Huskies made the playoffs for the first time in 2005, and had fallen in first-round games three times before opening this postseason with a win over Carrollton two weeks ago.

519 – Carsonville-Port Sanilac’s points scored this season in 10 games (not counting the 1-0 result from another win by forfeit). That’s nearly 52 points per game, and has included outputs of 53, 57, 62, 70 and 91. 

5 – Overtimes combined needed to determine two Division 6 District finals. Iron Mountain outlasted McBain 36-35 in three extra periods, while Constantine downed Schoolcraft 37-30 in two.

27 – East Grand Rapids’ consecutive playoff wins. The run has included five straight MHSAA championships. The last postseason loss came in 2005 to Caledonia, which then went on to win the Division 3 title.

MORE FANTASTIC FINISHES

Port Huron 27, Rochester Adams 21 – A late 85-yard scoring run following a goal-line stand helped Port Huron advance in Division 3 and win its 10th game for the first time in program history. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.  

Birmingham Brother Rice 30, Farmington Hills Harrison 7 – Not quite close, but significant. Reigning MHSAA champion Harrison was again the favorite, and did play without its starting quarterback. But No. 7 Brother Rice will be a popular choice now to reach its first final since 2005.Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Mount Pleasant 35, Petoskey 28 – The Oilers trailed by two touchdowns on three occasions before coming away with a season-extending – and upset-avoiding – victory. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Grass Lake 23, Leslie 22 – One of our Prep Zone games on FoxSportsDetroit.com, this one went down to the final minute. At the end, undefeated Grass Lake prevailed – but not without a scare. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.

Fowler 24, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21 – Fowler was certainly the favorite, and tied for the No. 9 spot in the state poll. But the Eagles did have to outlast a fast start and then late run by the Irish, last season’s MHSAA champion. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

UP NEXT – REGIONAL FINALS and 8-player SEMIS

DIVISION 1: Detroit Cass Tech (8-3) at Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) – 7 p.m. Friday at SCS Lake Shore – DeLaSalle can reach 10 wins for the third time in six seasons, and its list of fallen foes is, as usual, impressive. But Cass Tech ranks well with the best the Pilots have seen. The Technicians own a win over Detroit Martin Luther King (see below) with losses to Division 2 No. 1 Farmington Hills Harrison and twice to Detroit Crockett (also mentioned below).

DIVISION 2: Detroit Martin Luther King (8-3) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (10-1) – 7 p.m. Friday – Roosevelt is 10-1 for the second straight season, and tied for the No. 7 spot in the state poll. But unranked King might be the best three-loss team this side of East Grand Rapids. All three of King’s this fall were to teams still alive, and by a combined 11 points.  

DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Holland (9-2) – 1 p.m. Saturday – A tremor was felt all the way from the lake shore when Holland knocked off East Grand Rapids 30-22 in Week 2. And that was just the start, as Holland has gone on to earn its second playoff berth ever and first postseason win. Still, the Pioneers came into the postseason ranked No. 9, while Holland is unranked and at least some people’s underdog.

DIVISION 4: Detroit Crockett (10-1) at Marine City (11-0) – 7 p.m. Friday – Top-ranked Marine City has taken out Nos. 6 and 8 from the top 10 so far, and now will try to do the same with No. 5 Crockett. But Crockett’s only loss was to Division 2 District champ King, which Crockett then beat in a rematch. The Rockets and strong-armed quarterback Brian Blackburn made the Semifinals last season, and won’t go quietly.  

DIVISION 5: Menominee (9-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-2) – 3 p.m. Saturday – West Catholic is the reigning Division 5 champion, but had to escape Menominee 24-20 in a Semifinal along the way last fall. The Maroons always are a point of curiousity because of their thriving single wing offense, and come in ranked No. 5 to West Catholic’s No. 7.

DIVISION 6: Morley-Stanwood (10-1) at Iron Mountain (10-0) – 1 p.m. Saturday – Morley-Stanwood has double figures wins for the third straight season, and already has taken out No. 6 Shelby and No. 8 Clare. Now the Mohawks will attempt the same against No. 3 Iron Mountain, which survived a close one against McBain to reach 10 wins for the fourth time in five seasons. 

DIVISION 7: Hudson (11-0) at Detroit Loyola (11-0) – 1 p.m. Saturday at Madison Heights Bishop Foley – Reigning champion Hudson has won its last seven playoff games and 11 of its last 12, but comes into this as a rare underdog ranked No. 3 with Loyola No. 2. That said, the Tigers have scored at least 35 points in all but two games this season. But Loyola has posted shutouts in five of its last six.

DIVISION 8: Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1) at St. Ignace La Salle (11-0) – 7 p.m. Friday – It’s a rare day when Forest Park isn’t the heavy favorite to get down state – the No. 6 Trojans have played in seven of the last 11 Division 8 Finals. But No. 3 St. Ignace is having its best season since 1988 and dropped a season-high 55 points on Rudyard in the District final win.

8-PLAYER: Engadine (7-4) at Rapid River (10-1) – 1 p.m. Saturday --- These two are in the same league and faced each other during the regular season; Rapid River won 50-32. With all of the points scored in 8-player games, that’s not as wide a margin as it might seem. But Engadine still must slow down a Rapid River offense averaging 52 points per game – just as the Eagles did in upsetting Cedarville 36-14 last week in another rematch.