Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Rebuilt Culture Driving Success as Roelens Steps Away at Port Huron Northern
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
November 13, 2024
The spark that helped ignite the past decade of success for the Port Huron Northern football program came early in Larry Roelens’ tenure, and, ironically, during the one full season that the Huskies finished with a losing record under him.
Northern, which had just three winning seasons over the previous 15, started 0-2 in 2015, but rattled off four straight wins under its first-year coach, who was noticing that things were changing for the better.
“I’ll be honest, Northern wasn’t in a very good state when I got the job,” Roelens said. “But for me and the guys that stayed around (on the coaching staff), I could never have done what I did without the guys on my staff. They’re like family to me and to my kids; they call them uncles. We went in with the mindset that we have to change the culture.
“We started 0-2 that first season, but then won four in a row. We lost three tough games to end the season, but that kind of changed the culture. We built on that, and the next year went 6-3.”
That next season was the beginning of the most successful stretch of football during the playoff era for the Huskies, as they made the postseason nine straight years, tripling the number of playoff appearances they had made during the 40 years prior.
The ninth postseason appearance was the last for Roelens, however, as he stepped down as Northern coach following a Division 2 District Semifinal loss to Warren De La Salle Collegiate on Oct. 24. He has accepted a position as assistant principal at the school, and administrators in the district are not allowed to hold head coaching positions.
“Honestly, that was a very hard decision to make for me,” Roelens said. “I went into education to be a coach and a teacher. But it was very much based on a family decision. I’ll be able to spend more time with my kids (Audrey, 5, and Brady, 3), and coach their teams.”
Roelens leaves the Northern program in as good a place as it’s been, perhaps ever.
He was 69-30 over his 10 seasons, with the nine playoff appearances and four Macomb Area Conference Blue titles. Northern also won four postseason games under Roelens.
Before he took over the program, Northern had three playoff appearances in program history – 1986, 1999 and 2010 – and a single postseason victory.
The program had not won eight games in a season since 1987, but did so four times under Roelens, including with a 10-2 mark in 2018, which matched the school record for wins.
“It’s pretty crazy,” said Northern senior quarterback Ty Fletcher. “He kind of morphed the program to what it is today. … I feel like, when he started getting into the playoffs and they had all those playoff appearances in (consecutive) seasons, that started that trend of winning football. Then we ended up staying there and being a competitive team.”
As it so often does, the success built an excitement around the program that found its way through the youth levels.
“We were all coming up through the youth teams, and we all stayed together on the freshman level, and we always talked about how everyone wants to play for Northern,” Fletcher said. “About how cool it was to play under the lights there.”
A lot of that excitement at the youth level has also been buoyed by a string of Division I college talent that has come through the program during Roelens’ time, led by Braiden McGregor. The defensive end was among the top recruits in the country in 2020 and played a key role on Michigan’s national title team. He is now playing for the New York Jets.
He wasn’t a one-off for the Huskies in terms of DI talent, as Luke Fletcher is now in his second year at Eastern Michigan, and current juniors Amir Morelan and Lincoln Watkins have both received Power 4 offers.
“Braiden’s class, we had a few kids that went on to play college football,” Roelens said. “That right there was proof that, even in a small town, they’re going to find you if you’re good enough. I think that pushed a lot of kids, because they started to understand that if you’re good enough and you work hard enough, they’ll find you.”
Roelens even being at Northern in the first place was a bit of a surprise for those in the area, as he was a star athlete at cross-town rival Port Huron High. Roelens played quarterback at Port Huron and went on to play baseball at Saginaw Valley State after graduating in 2004.
He student taught at Northern during the 2009-10 school year, but even then he helped out with the Port Huron football program.
His journey with Northern athletics began with assistant roles in the basketball and baseball programs later that year, and in the fall of 2010 he became the JV head football coach.
For four of the next five seasons he was on the Huskies staff, before taking over the program prior to the 2015 season.
With his new position, he’ll remain in the school and around the coaches and players in the program. And, while the thrill of coaching was something Roelens cherished, those relationships are what he’s valued most.
“I’ve been very blessed with the people I’ve had around me throughout those 10 years,” he said. “The support I had from Northern, the support of the parents, the Northern community, it’s been a blessing. My family, my wife and kids, they’ve all been tremendous.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Port Huron Northern football coach Larry Roelens, middle, is surrounded by his kneeling players during a postgame huddle. (Middle) Roelens holds daughter Audrey, and wife Kelsey holds son Brady on the field. (Below) Roelens hoists the Brick Fowler Trophy after a Northern win over rival Port Huron. (Photos courtesy of the Roelens family.)