Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 9 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 24, 2024
Over the next 72 hours, high school football will end for many and championship hopes will restart for several, and we will honor and appreciate both.
This is the final weekend of the 2024 regular season, and just more than half of 600 varsity teams will conclude three months that for most were several years in the making. On Sunday, we’ll announce the pairings for this season’s MHSAA Playoffs, and 288 of those teams will begin another season they hope will end in late November with a Finals championship.
And here’s the best part in this moment: There’s still plenty to decide and memories to be made.
Games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page, and every division’s playoff points summary updating as well as scores are received. Full playoff brackets will be announced at 4:30 p.m. Sunday on FanDuel Sports Network (formerly Bally Sports Detroit), with game dates and times added to MHSAA.com throughout Monday.
Bay & Thumb
Davison (6-2) at Lapeer (5-3) WATCH
Although Grand Blanc wrapped up the Saginaw Valley League Red title last week with its 55-49 win over Davison, the Cardinals can bounce back and lock down not only second place but more importantly a spot among the top half on the Division 1 playoff list. Davison is No. 13 and Lapeer is No. 24, and those two and Grand Blanc have ended up in the same District the last two seasons. Last year Davison and Lapeer played each other back-to-back in Week 9 and then a District Semifinal, with the Cardinals winning 56-55 and 76-35.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gladwin (6-2) at Frankenmuth (8-0) WATCH, Midland Dow (5-3) at Midland (7-1) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (6-2) at St. Clair (6-2), Ovid-Elsie (7-1) at Standish-Sterling (5-3) WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Martin Luther King (6-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-0) at Ford Field
This matchup will conclude a day of Catholic High School League Prep Bowl festivities at Ford Field, and it’s an incredible regular-season finale for the entire state as the 7:30 p.m. kickoff matches the CHSL Central champion Shamrocks against the Detroit Public School League Blue title-winning Crusaders. They last met in a 2019 season opener, won by DCC 24-22, but do have a common opponent this fall as King fell to Warren De La Salle Collegiate 35-13 in Week 2 and the Shamrocks doubled up the Pilots 31-14 in Week 5.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Seaholm (6-2) at Birmingham Groves (8-0) WATCH, Saline (5-3) at Lake Orion (6-2) WATCH, Macomb Dakota (7-1) at Oxford (6-2) WATCH. SATURDAY Macomb Lutheran North (7-1) vs. Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-0) at Ford Field.
Mid-Michigan
Belleville (8-0) at Howell (8-0) WATCH
This Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game could be considered among Howell’s most notable opportunities in 60 years. The Highlanders are playing for a first perfect regular season since 1963 – according to Michigan-Football.com – and to achieve it they’ll have to overcome a team that has played in three straight Division 1 championship games and won them in 2021 and 2022. Every serious high school football fan in Michigan knows of Tigers four-year star quarterback Bryce Underwood, but Howell also will have to contend with a defense that hasn’t given up a point since Week 6. The Highlanders are familiar with top competition, however, opening with a win over Hudsonville before making their first undefeated league title run since 2008.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hopkins (6-2) at Belding (7-1), Lansing Everett (6-2) at DeWitt (8-0) WATCH, Petoskey (8-0) at Clare (7-1) WATCH, Fenton (7-1) at Mason (6-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Fowler (8-0) at McBain (8-0)
Fowler is the top-ranked team in the Division 8 coaches poll, and McBain is No. 5 in Division 7. Both will carry impressive league title runs into the playoffs, as McBain’s in the Highland Conference included a four-point victory over Division 8 No. 4 Beal City and a seven-pointer over Evart, while Fowler was challenged by Division 7 No. 6 Pewamo-Westphalia in a 14-11 win and opened this season with a 20-6 victory over No. 9 Hudson. Fowler won last year’s Week 9 meeting with McBain 40-0, but this Ramblers team has avenged all three of its other 2023 regular-season defeats.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Croswell-Lexington (6-2) at Ogemaw Heights (7-1) WATCH, Kingsley (6-2) at Charlevoix (6-2) WATCH, Traverse City West (5-3) at Traverse City Central (4-4) WATCH, Traverse City St. Francis (6-2) at Boyne City (6-2) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Dexter (8-0) at Chelsea (7-1) WATCH
This is a matchup of champions in the Southeastern Conference between the Red’s Dexter and White’s Chelsea, their second as nonleague opponents after years together in the White or the formerly one-division SEC. Chelsea won last year’s matchup 31-21 and owned this rivalry for several seasons until the Dreadnaughts claimed their 2022 contest. The Bulldogs are coming off a 21-20 win over Trenton last week but have otherwise marched through most of their schedule since a season-opening loss to still-undefeated Grand Rapids Northview. Dexter has won six straight by double digits after receiving a forfeit win from Saline in Week 2 and edging Livonia Franklin 27-26 to open the fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ida (7-1) at Clinton (6-2) WATCH, Manchester (6-2) at Jonesville (5-3). SATURDAY Leslie (7-1) at Hanover-Horton (8-0), Kalamazoo United (7-1) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (7-1) at Ford Field.
Southwest Corridor
Niles (7-1) at Paw Paw (8-0) WATCH
The Wolverine Conference championship comes down to a winner-take-all Week 9 matchup between these two for the second straight season, and with the only loss between them this time Niles’ to St. Joseph all the way back on Aug. 30. The Vikings defeated Paw Paw 56-18 to take the league title last year and again 42-13 for a District championship two weeks later. And there’s no arguing that Niles hasn’t dominated Wolverine play so far, outscoring its six league opponents by a combined 298-27 – although Paw Paw accomplished just about the same, outscoring then same teams by a combined 262-26. The Red Wolves also had early wins over eventual league champions Big Rapids and Berrien Springs before beginning the pursuit of their own.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY White Pigeon (7-1) at Bronson (6-2) WATCH, St. Joseph (7-1) at Portage Central (6-2), Constantine (6-2) at Lawton (6-2) WATCH, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (5-3) at Kalamazoo Central (5-3) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Marquette (6-2) at Kingsford (8-0) WATCH
There are a few storylines here of note. Kingsford, coming off its first 10-win season last year since 2004, is seeking to finish off a first perfect regular season since 2002. But Marquette has a ton riding on this as well; the Sentinels, with their best record since 2021, sit three spots outside the Division 2 playoff field. They will be aiming to defeat the Flivvers for the first time since 2021, and then relying on their previous opponents from this season to have enough Week 9 success (and gain them enough bonus points) to boost them into the field.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Negaunee (6-2) at Iron Mountain (8-0) WATCH. FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (5-3) at Menominee (7-1), Houghton (3-5) at Hancock (1-7), Escanaba (4-4) at Gladstone (1-7) WATCH.
West Michigan
Cedar Springs (7-1) at Coopersville (5-3)
These two and Lowell enter the final week of the first season of the River Cities Alliance all tied for first place – meaning the winner of this game is guaranteed at least a share of the championship, and Lowell can pick up a share as well with a win over Greenville. Cedar Springs has bounced back nicely from last season’s 4-5 finish, with its only loss to Lowell in Week 5. Coopersville has guaranteed a fourth-straight winning regular season but is in league title contention this late for the first time in several. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses, a two-point heartbreaker against Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills and then a 24-7 defeat to a league champion in Big Rapids last week.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-2) at Zeeland West (7-1) WATCH. FRIDAY Rockford (6-2) at East Kentwood (5-3) WATCH, East Grand Rapids (5-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (6-2), Manistee (5-3) at Mason County Central (7-1).
8-Player
Alcona (8-0) at Deckerville (8-0) WATCH
The 8-player slate this week has multiple league-title deciders – but this one could impact the pursuit of the Division 1 championship over the next month. Deckerville is No. 1 in 8-player Division 1 playoff-point average at 37.750, and Alcona is just behind at No. 2 and 37.542. Of course other numbers come into play, both will be need to win their first three playoff games, and maps aren’t even drawn yet – but if they end up on the same side of the bracket, tonight’s matchup could end up determining which teams hosts a Semifinal rematch if that becomes reality.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Powers North Central (7-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-0), Gaylord St. Mary (7-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-0), Pittsford (7-1) at Climax-Scotts (7-1), Munising (6-2) at Pickford (8-0).
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PHOTO A pair of Ovid-Elsie defenders close in on New Lothrop’s Michael Schachter (9) during the Marauders’ 42-0 Week 8 victory. (Photo by Click by Christine McCallister.)