Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Process, Relationships Still Matter Most as 4-Time Champ Shillito Coaches 41st Season
By
Steve Vedder
Special for MHSAA.com
October 18, 2024
It was John Shillito's third year as Muskegon Orchard View football coach, and while the wolves weren't exactly knocking at the door, some faint low growls could clearly be heard.
Shillito had been successful at Comstock Park with his teams going 21-8 over three seasons, but the move to Orchard View included 3-6 and 4-5 records the first two.
While there wasn't yet widespread anxiety, Shillito recalls there was a bit of concern.
"I was much younger then and wasn't as successful yet in education," Shillito said. "But we weathered it and came through the other side. But you wonder a little; there's always a little self-doubt. I think it was important to go through it, because you can learn as much even when you're not winning."
Michigan high school football is the better for Shillito sticking it out. Two schools later, Shillito finds himself as the state's third winningest active coach and seventh overall with a 333-106 mark over 41 seasons.
His Zeeland West team is 6-1 this season and likely to become his 27th team – and 15th in a row – to qualify for the playoffs. Shillito's teams at Byron Center, Muskegon Orchard View, East Kentwood and Zeeland West have won a combined 16 conference titles.
Not bad for someone whose first love was baseball. Shillito's father, Harry, played three seasons professionally in the Brooklyn Dodgers system during the "Boys of Summer" era of the 1940s and 50s. Shillito grew up as a talented catcher in the spring and top football prospect as a defensive lineman in football. When programs such as Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Northern Michigan began showing an interest, the lure of a football scholarship made it an easy decision which sport he would follow.
After playing three years at Central Michigan, his coaching career kicked off with an assistant gig at Central Bucks East in Pennsylvania in 1980. He became head coach at Comstock Park in 1982.
Shillito said the same motivation which drove him into coaching has kept him in the sport for nearly five decades. It's not necessarily winning state championships – he’s won four at Zeeland West – or fulfilling a deep competitive drive or even the lure of Friday Night Lights in a small community. It's showing up at practices, adhering to a process and building and honing relationships with players and other coaches.
Take those away and the 67-year-old Shillito, a member of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association Hall of Fame, would definitely be looking elsewhere to spend Friday nights in the fall.
"It's the process; I love a good practice. You know when (it's good) and when it isn't. More than even the football, it's the coaching process and the people I work with," he said.
"Winning is a week-to-week deal. This week's game is what we're all about. And then in the offseason, it's preparation for the year coming up. The state titles are always a bonus."
Which isn't to say Shillito isn't competitive. Whether it’s been playing hockey, wiffle ball, 3-on-3 basketball or backyard football with his brothers, Shillito's competitive spirit has thrived.
"Oh yeah," he said. "But I'm a glass half full-type competitor. I can find the positive side in either wins or losses. But for me it's about the preparation, no doubt about it."
Shillito's success has come even with opponents knowing exactly what they'll see offensively from his teams: the famed wing-T offense, which he's run since the mid-1990s and was taught to him by famed West Michigan coach Irv Sigler. In fact, Shillito said if there is anything responsible for his success, it's the ability to implement what he's learned from coaches as a whole such as Mike Henry, the longtime basketball coach at Orchard View, or former Remus Chippewa Hills football coach Ron Reardon.
When he first got into coaching, Shillito said the wing-T seemed the easiest to teach. He's tweaked the process over the years, but it's been highly successful for him wherever he's coached. The number of Michigan teams which run the wing-T has probably lessened over the years as passing has taken over many high school offenses. But Shillito said the run-first philosophy can still be found in pockets all over the state. Shillito said he has no second thoughts about devoting his offense to the wing-T, and the success only underscores the point.
"It can be difficult if you're not winning, no doubt about it," said Shillito, who figures he's coached about three dozen 1,000-yard rushers. "But the value in the system is that it's an easier process. That is, if you get a buy-in from the players and community. We've had that at Zeeland West."
As the sun begins to set on Shillito's coaching career, he's hard-pressed to pick his best, favorite or most surprising teams. For starters, there's the 1983 Byron Center team which reached the Class C Semifinals, or the 1995 and 1999 Orchard View teams which played in Class B Finals and combined for a 24-3 mark.
Or maybe the 13-1 Division 1 runner-up club at East Kentwood in 2002, and the 2006 Zeeland West team which claimed the Division 4 title after winning its last 11 games by an average of 35 points per. Or the 2011 Zeeland West team which went 14-0 to kick off a phenomenal five-year stretch during which the Dux went a combined 60-6.
Ask Shillito about any of those seasons, and his answer as to what he remembers most about his coaching career may be surprising. Many of his most cherished moments include his teams going just 5-6 over the years against Muskegon, including three playoff losses that ended the Dux's season. Balance that with his record against other programs, such as a 73-16 mark against other Lakeshore teams, including an 18-7 record against rival Zeeland East. Or a 10-4 record against traditional Grand Rapids-area powers such as Lowell, Grand Rapids Catholic Central, South Christian, West Catholic and Hudsonville. In the postseason, Shillito's teams are an amazing 54-22 over 26 seasons in the MHSAA Playoffs.
As for knocking heads with Muskegon, Shillito said the thrill of a great rivalry and the consistency his teams have shown over the years is what has always driven him.
"It's the longevity and consistency," Shillito said. "I've gotten to work with great people who have had an equal share in this. I've had such a wide variety of guys I've worked with in four programs, and it’s meaningful. "
He is coy on when he might finally call it a career. He could wake up tomorrow and decide it's the time, or it could be next week, the end of the season or maybe one more season. Who's to say?
"We're getting close now," he will say. "We're always in the moment; that's just where we are. Then we'll evaluate things after the season. That's been true now for several seasons."
PHOTOS (Top) Zeeland West football coach John Shillito, right, receives the Division 4 championship trophy from MHSAA Representative Council member Orlando Medina in 2015 at Ford Field. (Middle) Entering this season, Shillito ranked seventh all-time and third among active coaches for football victories in the MHSAA record book. (Below) Shillito prepares to send in one of his East Kentwood players during the 2002 Division 1 Final at Pontiac Silverdome. (MHSAA file photos.)