Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 7, 2024
We don’t track margin of victory week to week during the Michigan high school football season. So only anecdotally we will say that Week 6 felt like it was filled with several more close games than usual across the state.
Total, 57 games were decided by eight points or fewer – in essence, a touchdown and 2-point conversion, or less – and those 57 games including 113 Michigan teams (with River Rouge playing an Ohio opponent).
In other words, 19 percent of our varsity teams were part of games decided by such a slim margin – including many of the results of intriguing matchups we highlight below.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Almont 29, Armada 28 Almont’s last-minute go-ahead score may end up deciding the Blue Water Area Conference championship as the Raiders (6-0) held on to win this matchup of undefeated teams. They can clinch a share of the title this week against Richmond, while Armada (5-1) fell into a second-place tie with North Branch – but with some hope as North Branch plays Almont in Week 8. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Watch list Marysville 39, Marine City 20 Marysville (5-1) rebounded from a 35-0 opening-night loss to Almont to win five straight and clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title – with an opportunity to win it outright this week against second-place St. Clair.
On the move Davison 35, East Lansing 10 Davison (5-1) built a strong nonleague schedule again for this season, and this final nonconference win bumped the Cardinals up to No. 9 in Division 1 playoff-point average while keeping East Lansing (3-3) still firmly in the Division 2 mix. Grand Blanc 35, Lapeer 21 The undefeated atop the Saginaw Valley League Red standings are down to Grand Blanc (5-1) and Davison, with Lapeer (4-2) holding on to a sliver of title share hope after taking its second league loss. Fenton 24, Linden 21 Fenton (6-0) took a field goal lead during the first quarter and continued to maintain that advantage to the end to clinch a share of the Flint Metro League Stripes title and send Linden to 3-3 – but with some title share hope as Fenton faces the other second-place team, Flushing, this week.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Trenton 28, Gibraltar Carlson 14 Trenton (4-2) has strung together a nice comeback over the last month, with this win the necessary first step toward a possible – and what not long ago probably seemed improbable – opportunity to claim a share of the Downriver League title. The Trojans started this fall 0-2 with both losses in the league, but handed Carlson (5-1) its first. This week Trenton faces Downriver leader Allen Park – and with Allen Park and Carlson still to play as well. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.
Check out the highlights of Trenton's 28-14 win over Gibraltar Carlson from October 4th, 2024. Delivered by @hungryhowies. After starting the season 0-2, Trenton has won 4 straight games.@OnwardTrenton | @AshtonRooney_1 pic.twitter.com/z5Owy7l54x
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 5, 2024
Watch list Clawson 27, Clinton Township Clintondale 14 Reigning MAC Bronze champion Clawson (4-2) broke this season’s league standings open again, denying Clintondale (4-2) the opportunity to clinch a share of the title and setting up the possibility of three winners this season with Hazel Park also tied for first, one league game left for all three, and none of those three playing each other.
On the move Detroit Lincoln-King 50, Mount Clemens 0 Lincoln-King (6-0) posted its third straight shutout on the field (with a forfeit win during that run as well) and can clinch the Charter School Conference Silver title this week after sending Mount Clemens (4-2) into a tie for third place. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 34, Utica Eisenhower 31 (2 OT) All of a sudden the Big Reds (2-4) are only five spots out of making the Division 1 playoff field after stunning Eisenhower (5-1), which can still claim a share of the MAC Red title by defeating first-place Macomb Dakota this week. Oxford 18, Rochester Adams 17 After opening Oakland Activities Association Red play with an eight-point loss to Clarkston, Oxford has pushed back into a tie for first with a chance to clinch a share of the title this week against West Bloomfield. Oddly enough, Adams – with two league losses by a combined four points – could be part of a five-team title share if all five in the division finish 2-2 in league play.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Fowler 14, Pewamo-Westphalia 11 Fowler (6-0) pulled into first place in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference and nearly pulled even with P-W (5-1) in their longstanding series. This was the Eagles’ second win in their last 10 meetings with the Pirates, but pulled Fowler to within one of tying P-W for wins in the 59-year rivalry. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Leslie 36, Napoleon 28 With this win over reigning Cascades Conference East champion Napoleon (3-3), Leslie pulled within one more of clinching a share of this year’s title and with winless East Jackson up next. The Blackhawks (6-0) also have their most victories in a season since 2012, the last time they finished with a winning record.
On the move Ionia 21, Lansing Sexton 20 After this second-straight one-point win, Ionia (4-2) has avenged three of its losses from a year ago and needs two more victories to guarantee its best finish since 2013. Lansing Everett 35, Grand Ledge 12 Everett (5-1) bounced back from its loss to Grand Blanc with its first win over Grand Ledge (4-2) since 2019 – and with one more victory, would have its best finish since 2014. Mason 40, St. Johns 10 Mason (5-1) clinched a share of a sixth-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title by winning this matchup of league leaders, and also delivered St. Johns (5-1) its lone loss during what has been the Redwings’ best season since 2019.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Petoskey 42, Cadillac 18 The Northmen played themselves into a championship matchup in the Big North Conference this week, as they’ll face co-leader Marquette with two leagues games remaining for both. Petoskey also is 6-0 for the first time since 2011, tied last season’s win total with this one, and remains seventh in Division 3 playoff-point average while Cadillac (3-3) fell only one spot to No. 29. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Boyne City 21, Grayling 18 Boyne City (4-2) kept its destiny in its own hands, and it will face first-place Traverse City St. Francis in Week 9 with a chance to earn a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legends championship.
On the move East Jordan 43, Mancelona 28 The Red Devils (4-2) bounced back from two-straight one-score losses to solidly reassert themselves in the middle of the potential Division 8 playoff field, with Mancelona (3-3) remaining in that mix as well. Traverse City St. Francis 55, Cheboygan 6 The Gladiators (5-1) won their third straight to clinch a share of the NMFL Legends title and send Cheboygan to 3-3. Charlevoix 28, Elk Rapids 0 The Rayders (4-2) are league champions as well with this clinching a share in the NMFL Leaders.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 34, Riverview 15 Two straight power-packed weeks in the Huron League have left Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central in first place and Riverview and Flat Rock both a game back, with SMCC facing Flat Rock this week with at least a share of the league title on the line. This was billed as Riverview’s powerful offense against the Falcons’ unyielding defense, and the latter won out to give SMCC its first victory over the Pirates since 2019. Click for more from the Monroe News.
Watch list Dexter 42, Ann Arbor Pioneer 6 Dexter (6-0) clinched the Southeastern Conference Red championship, in part by sending Pioneer (4-2) into a tie for second place. The Dreadnaughts can claim the title outright this week at Monroe.
On the move Jackson Lumen Christi 63, Toledo St. Francis de Sales 35 In a winner-take-all for the Catholic High School League AA championship, Lumen Christi (5-1) clinched it and has won all six of its CHSL games since entering the league last fall. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 65, Erie Mason 8 Petersburg Summerfield clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference title by way of this Whiteford win, but the Bobcats (5-1) no doubt will be cheering for Mason next week to defeat Summerfield, which would create a shared title among all three. Chelsea 38, Tecumseh 14 Chelsea has strung together five straight wins after losing its season opener, and this one, combined with Adrian’s 17-14 victory over Jackson, gave the Bulldogs (5-1) the outright SEC White title.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 33, Constantine 21 United’s first win over Constantine since 2018 ended the Falcons’ 23-game winning streak in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore and put the Titans (5-1) in position to clinch a share of the league title this week if Constantine (5-1) defeats co-leader Parchment. United faces Parchment in Week 8. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Kalamazoo United wins big against Constantine. Final score 33-21! @kalamazoounited https://t.co/VNAbf9bl9Y pic.twitter.com/smtlnCVFBQ
— FOX 17 Blitz (@FOX17Blitz) October 5, 2024
Watch list Schoolcraft 17, Lawton 3 Schoolcraft (5-1) will face Saugatuck this week for a share of the SAC Valley title after sending Lawton (4-2) into third place by ending a five-game losing streak against the Blue Devils. Lawton had defeated the Eagles in both the regular season and playoffs the last two years.
On the move Battle Creek Harper Creek 32, Parma Western 13 Harper Creek (5-1) has played itself into a similar spot as last season – set to face Hastings with major Interstate 8 Athletic Conference implications. But this time, the Beavers have a win over Parma Western out of the way as they avenged last year’s loss to the third-place Panthers. Paw Paw 21, Edwardsburg 7 The Wolverine Conference race is likely to go to the end of the regular season, but this was a major obstacle to overcome as Paw Paw (6-0) moved closer to a Week 9 matchup with current co-leader and reigning champion Niles – which faces Edwardsburg (4-2) this week. Berrien Springs 31, Buchanan 6 Berrien Springs (3-3) won its second straight over the Bucks (3-3) and will face Dowagiac this week for a share of the Lakeland Conference championship.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Marquette 28, Escanaba 7 As Petoskey accomplished against Cadillac (noted above), Marquette (5-1) did its work to set up this weekend’s Big North Conference matchup of coleaders. The seven points scored by Escanaba (3-3) were the first given up by the Sentinels in BNC play – impressive again versus an offense that was averaging 31 per game. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Watch list Bark River-Harris 54, L’Anse 0 After opening with losses to Ishpeming Westwood and Iron Mountain, Bark River-Harris (4-2) has won four straight and its last three games by shutout. The 54 points scored were a season high.
On the move Calumet 29, Houghton 0 The Copper Kings (3-3) broke a three-game losing streak and in doing so bumped up from No. 40 in Division 6 playoff-point average to No. 32. Manistique 33, West Iron County 0 The Emeralds will finish off the regular season with a pair of still-undefeated opponents and will get a nice bump from those matchups win or lose, but this one paid off big as well as they jumped six spots to No. 30 in Division 8 playoff-point average. Negaunee 42, Ishpeming Westwood 6 With a Week 4 loss to co-leader Kingsford, but co-leader Menominee coming up this week, Negaunee still has some hope for a share of the title in Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper – and if that doesn’t work out, wins like this one over Westwood (2-4) will continue to boost the Miners in Division 6. They currently rank No. 12 on that playoff-point average list, up two spots from last week.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Holland Christian 18 The Cougars may have made the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title pursuit a two-team race by sending Holland Christian out of a tie for first and with co-leader Grand Rapids Northview up next for the Cougars (5-1). Holland Christian (5-1) also will see Northview, in Week 8, as it continues building its guaranteed best season since 2018. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Check out the highlights of Grand Rapids Catholic Central beating Holland Christian 42-17 on October 4th, 2024. @GRCC_CougarsFB improved to 5-1 on the season. Powered by @miarmyguard pic.twitter.com/rHjUDxXZx8
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 5, 2024
Watch list Zeeland East 22, Grand Rapids South Christian 15 The O-K Green is loaded and several other contenders have received a lot of the attention this fall. But the Chix (4-2) are right there as well, with this easily their most impressive win of the fall and a great way to push into the final two league games against Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central and leader Hudsonville Unity Christian. South Christian (4-2) has lost two straight after a strong start.
On the move Zeeland West 28, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 7 The Dux (5-1) bounced back after losing to Unity Christian in Week 5 and remain one game back in the Green with two league games to play. Rockford 34, Caledonia 14 Rockford (4-2) bounced back from its first back-to-back losses since 2018 by downing the Fighting Scots (4-2) to move back up to No. 15 in Division 1 playoff-point average. Grandville 33, East Kentwood 25 After opening with three losses, Grandville has three wins and the No. 22 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average thanks to a jump of 10 spots. East Kentwood (3-3) would be part of the field as well if the season ended today.
8-Player
HEADLINER Norway 40, Munising 28 The Great Lakes Eight Conference East has plenty of power with four of six teams .500 or better, and at the top are Norway and Pickford with the Knights (5-1) handing Munising (5-1) the latter’s first loss of the season. Circle Norway vs. Pickford in Week 8 as one of the biggest 8-player regular-season games of this fall. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Watch list Grand Rapids Sacred Heart 28, St. Joseph Our Lake of the Lake Catholic 20 Sacred Heart (6-0) emerged from one of its toughest tests of this program-defining season, the Falcons’ second overall and first playing a full varsity schedule. Our Lady (4-2) is one of five Sacred Heart opponents so far that sits at .500 or better.
On the move Mendon 66, Bellevue 42 Two strong offensive teams not surprisingly combined to score a lot of points, with Owen Gorham totaling 256 yards and six touchdowns rushing for Mendon (6-0) and Seth Keson running for two touchdowns, scoring a third on a kick return and throwing for two more for Bellevue (4-2). Fulton 60, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 33 The Pirates (5-1) have finished with winning seasons three of their four in 8-player football, and this has been their best start with this victory avenging a seven-point loss to the Irish (4-2) from a year ago. Marion 48, Suttons Bay 0 Marion (6-0) has won its games by an average of 38 points per, and this first shutout of the season came against one of its most successful opponents so far in the Norsemen (4-2).
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PHOTOS (Top) Fowler's Jacob Halfmann pulls away from a Pewamo-Westphalia defender Friday. (Middle) Chesaning's Brayden Florian (11) finds a seam during his team's 50-0 win over Montrose. (Below) c (Top photo by Jim Pivarnik. Chesaning/Montrose photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Westwood photo by Cara Kamps.)