Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 5 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 27, 2024

As we reach the midpoint of the 2024 football regular season this weekend, 88 teams – or 15 percent of the state’s 601 varsities – have yet to taste a loss this fall.

MI Student AidThat may change substantially over the next three days.

A first defeat is guaranteed for at least four teams, as four Week 5 matchups pit undefeated opponents – and we dig into two of those games below. A total of 24 more undefeated teams will face opponents who have suffered just one loss over the first month, and we highlight some of those matchups as well – plus a few unexpected picks as we take a bit of a long view on potential league title and playoff qualification outcomes while rolling into the second half.

All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.

Bay & Thumb

Ovid-Elsie (4-0) at Montrose (3-1) WATCH

Three teams have started the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference schedule 2-0, and these are two of them. Both were original members of the league in 2018, but their only championship came with a three-team share of the title in 2021 – although Montrose has won four District titles and a Regional championship over the last six seasons, and Ovid-Elsie made the Division 6 Semifinals last fall. The Marauders’ 42 points in a 35-point win last week over Durand were their season low; conversely, Montrose downed Durand by only six points 20-14 in Week 3 but over the season is allowing just under 11 per game – and with that lone loss opening night to 2023 Division 8 semifinalist Riverview Gabriel Richard.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Almont (4-0) at Croswell-Lexington (3-1) WATCH, Lansing Everett (4-0) at Grand Blanc (3-1) WATCH, Traverse City West (3-1) at Midland (3-1) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (2-2) at Port Huron (3-1) WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (3-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (4-0), Sunday WATCH

This season’s DCC “Boys Bowl” features two of the top three teams in the Catholic High School League Central. DCC leads the division thanks to a 21-7 Week 2 win over Toledo Central Catholic, and De La Salle is chasing after last week’s 41-6 loss to TCC. But a Pilots win in this Sunday afternoon matchup would reset things at the top of the standings, and De La Salle has claimed the last three meetings with the Shamrocks – including 14-7 a year ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Roseville (3-1) at Grosse Pointe South (4-0), Rochester Adams (4-0) at Lake Orion (3-1) WATCH, Detroit Henry Ford (4-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (3-1), Riverview (4-0) at Flat Rock (4-0) WATCH.

Mid-Michigan

DeWitt (4-0) at East Lansing (3-1) WATCH

This has been the most anticipated matchup in the Lansing area going back to last year’s 40-34 East Lansing win that ended up deciding the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue championship. The lone loss between them this season was the Trojans’ 14-12 defeat against Hudsonville in Week 2, and that defeat keeps looking better as Hudsonville downed Division 1 contender Rockford last week. DeWitt has scored at least 55 points in all four of its games, but also given up 42 or more twice – and with the playmakers on both sides, this could be another high-scoring clash.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ogemaw Heights (4-0) at Clare (4-0) WATCH, Lake Fenton (3-1) at Corunna (4-0) WATCH, Portland (4-0) at Lansing Catholic (3-1), Manchester (4-0) at Leslie (4-0) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Kingsley (3-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-1) WATCH

Much-improved Cheboygan may play a role, and Benzie Central pushed Kingsley hard last week. But these two look like the favorites in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends, and this game looks like it could end up eventually deciding the title. Both have a loss to a good opponent this fall, the Stags to Reed City in their opener and St. Francis two weeks ago to a 2023 league champion in Berrien Springs. Kingsley won last season’s meeting with the Gladiators 44-21 on the way to finishing second in the league but claiming the Division 6 championship in November.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (3-1) at East Jordan (3-1) WATCH, Cheboygan (3-1) at Boyne City (2-2) WATCH, Benzie Central (2-2) at Charlevoix (2-2) WATCH, McBain (4-0) at Houghton Lake (2-2) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Petersburg Summerfield (3-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-2) WATCH

This will be the final season of 11-player football in the 41-year-old Tri-County Conference, and among the remaining three teams Whiteford and Summerfield are tied with the most league titles with seven apiece. Whiteford has dominated in four straight wins between these two, including a 2021 playoff victory and 43-0 a year ago in Week 9 to keep the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. But Summerfield is off to another solid start, with its lone defeat by three to improved Decatur, and will try to catch a Bobcats team coming off a 50-20 loss to undefeated Edon, Ohio.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Milan (2-2) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-0), Onsted (2-2) at Ida (3-1) WATCH, Blissfield (2-2) at Hudson (3-1) WATCH, Grass Lake (3-1) at Napoleon (2-2).

Southwest Corridor

Galesburg-Augusta (2-2) at Lawton (3-1) WATCH

Galesburg-Augusta is off to its best start since 2016, when it finished 5-4 – its only winning season this century. A victory over Allegan in Week 3 was notable and gave the Rams as many this season (2) as all of last. Things get more difficult from here, however, as Schoolcraft started off the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley schedule by handing G-A a 49-0 defeat. Lawton, meanwhile, opened its league slate with a 42-6 rumbling over Delton Kellogg and has won 12 straight Valley games and three straight championships.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Haven (2-2) at Parchment (3-1), Parma Western (3-1) at Coldwater (2-2), Allegan (2-2) at Constantine (4-0), Bronson (3-1) at Vermontville Maple Valley (2-2) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Bark River-Harris (2-2) at Manistique (2-2) WATCH

This might seem like another unexpected choice for special attention, but both teams enter this weekend with an opportunity to affect their season's eventual outcome significantly. The Emeralds are coming off a 4-5 finish a year ago, their best record since 2012, and a win over Bark River-Harris would not only be a first in five recent meetings but also a strong step toward reaching five or more wins this fall – especially with their final two games against currently undefeated Iron Mountain and Saginaw Nouvel. The Broncos, meanwhile, opened this season 0-2 but have begun to rebound as they pursue a sixth-straight winning regular season – and with Iron Mountain and Menominee coming up, this one would go a long way toward achieving that possibility.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (4-0) at Calumet (2-2) WATCH, Houghton (2-2) at Menominee (4-0) WATCH, Ishpeming Westwood (1-3) at Gladstone (1-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Gwinn (2-2) at West Iron County (1-3) WATCH.

West Michigan

Zeeland West (4-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (4-0)

The realigned Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold took Zeeland West away from the Muskegon powerhouses but dropped it into a division with, among others, reigning Division 3 champion Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central from the O-K White and rebounding Unity from the O-K Blue. The Crusaders are only three years removed from a trip to Ford Field and defeated Forest Hills Central 43-20 last week in a league opener, while West opened with a 28-13 win over rival Zeeland East. Worth noting, Grand Rapids South Christian is the only holdover back from the previous O-K Gold alignment, and the Sailors also are 4-0 and see Unity and Zeeland West back-to-back in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudsonville (3-1) at East Kentwood (3-1) WATCH, Newaygo (4-0) at Reed City (3-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids South Christian (4-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (3-1) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (4-0) at Muskegon (1-2).

8-Player

Brown City (3-1) at Kingston (4-0)

Brown City has an enrollment too large to allow the Green Devils to participate in the playoffs this season, so a repeat league championship has to be a main objective – and despite falling 30-28 to Deckerville last week, Brown City still has a chance to end up with at least a share of the Big Thumb Conference Blue title. Kingston and Deckerville now lead the league, and they face off in Week 7 – and Kingston also ended Brown City’s 2023 season with a Regional Final shutout. But a win tonight definitely would allow the Green Devils to root for the Cardinals in two weeks.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Waldron (4-0) at Burr Oak (3-1), Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (3-1) at Gobles (4-0) WATCH, Alcona (4-0) at Mio (3-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (4-0) at Ishpeming (3-1) WATCH.

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PHOTO Goodrich's Chase Burnett (25) follows teammate Gavin Sukup's block during a Week 3 win over Lake Fenton.  (Photo by Terry Lyons.)