Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Capac Ends 14-Year Postseason Drought, Eager to Begin 8-Player Playoff Run

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

October 29, 2025

Not having the option to qualify for the 8-player postseason wasn’t something the Capac football concerned itself with the past three seasons.

Bay & ThumbEnrollment was too high at the school to be included in the MHSAA playoff field, and while the 2024 team most certainly would have made it, co-coach Troy Schneider said that since there was nothing that could be done about it, the players weren’t really concerned with it.

But this year, with the opportunity finally there, it lit a fire under the Chiefs.

“It was very motivating for us,” Capac senior quarterback Brody Tesnow said. “All summer, we had decent numbers show up to workouts. Our senior group was really pushing everyone. Our coaches have been on us all year, telling us this is our year that we can do this. I mean, really, we had a decent season last year, and I just feel like that pushed me more to come back this year and be even better.”

Capac is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2011, and at 7-2 is coming off its best regular season since 2001.

That year, the Chiefs advanced to the Division 5 Semifinals. This year’s run will start Friday night with a matchup at Brown City in 8-Player Division 1. A win would be the program’s first in the postseason since 2009.

“I’d love that,” Tesnow said. “That would be a great feeling for us, all the seniors. I remember that win over Deckerville (in Week 8), that was a surreal feeling. I could only imagine what a playoff win would feel like, especially after 14 years of not being in the playoffs.”

It’s been a long road for Capac, which has now had its first back-to-back winning seasons since running off four straight from 2008-11.

Enrollment at the school was near its height back then, peaking at 613 in 2008 before starting a steady decline. It first dipped below 400 in 2015, and by 2020 it was under 300.

That, naturally, led to a decline in football participation as well, and the team was unable to complete the 2020 season, a year where nearly everyone was granted access to the postseason because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

After a 1-8 run in 2021, with a total school enrollment of 211, Capac made the decision to switch from 11-player to 8-player. In each of its first three seasons under the new format, Capac was over the 215-student limit for competing in the postseason. This year, the school is at 203.

Sam Schneider (22) carries the ball and follows his Chiefs blockers as they attempt to create an opening against the Eagles.“I didn’t have any decision in that, but our numbers had dropped steadily for a number of years in the school,” said Schneider, who had coached at Capac in 2000s, and took over as varsity coach with Bill Nestle in 2024. “When we came out of the (Blue Water Area Conference), we were a small school, and we were getting pretty well destroyed. Once we moved into the other conference (Greater Thumb), we were with Ubly and Harbor Beach, and I wasn’t coaching at the time, but those are some really good teams, too. There were quite a few people who did not want to make a move to 8-man, but the writing was on the wall with the numbers at the school and the numbers in the football program. It’s been a good move for us. Obviously, a lot of schools have gone to that in the last five years.”

When the program moved to 8-player in 2022, the current senior class was entering high school. Schneider and Nestle had been coaching that group in middle school, and it had shown quite a bit of promise. 

There are currently 15 seniors on the varsity team, and while there are only 18 players total on the roster, the junior varsity and middle school programs are thriving, which has people in the high school program optimistic about a future that was pretty uncertain not long ago.

“We’ve got some potential coming up – things are looking pretty good,” Schneider said. “The junior group is small, so they’re going to have small numbers next year as seniors, but the three juniors we have are starters. The next three to four years, it should stay steady and we should be solid.”

But there’s still plenty of work to be done this year, and Capac is confident heading into the postseason despite the fact it lost to Brown City 61-22 in Week 3. 

Much of that confidence comes from that Week 8 win against 2024 8-Player Division 1 champion Deckerville. The 28-20 triumph ended Deckerville’s 20-game win streak, as it had not lost since the 2023 Semifinals. It was the first regular-season loss for the Eagles since Sept. 29, 2023.

“Starting the season we went kind of slow, but beating Deckerville told us that we were on that top tier,” senior defensive end and tight end Wiley Roose said. “I mean, after that game, it was crazy. To me, it was definitely the highlight of my sports career in high school. The whole team really came around.”

Beating Deckerville is an accomplishment in its own right, but the fact the Eagles had this season defeated Brown City and Kingston – which delivered Capac’s two losses – was another boost of confidence for the Chiefs, who are ready to show how far they’ve come this fall.

“We watched some film from the game (against Brown City) earlier in the season, and we were just comparing what we were then to how we are now,” Tesnow said. “It’s a huge difference. I’m pumped. We’re proving everyone wrong, and I love that feeling of being the underdog and surprising people.”

Tesnow and his teammates are hoping to continue doing that, but what they’ve done already to get the Capac program back on the right track is a massive accomplishment in itself.

“Coach Nestle and I care about all our players, but seeing these kids develop for five years, go through school, go through some of the losing seasons early in middle school then slowly build and get better – I can think of a number of kids and how they improved with being more aggressive, being tougher and taking the next step,” Schneider said. “It’s really nice to see the kids develop through the program. It’s been sweet. It’s that much better because it’s a great group of kids. They’re wonderful.”

Paul CostanzoPaul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS (Top) Capac huddles up during the closing minutes of its Week 8 win over Deckerville. (Middle) Sam Schneider (22) carries the ball and follows his Chiefs blockers as they attempt to create an opening against the Eagles. (Photos courtesy of the Capac football program.)