Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: Week 8 Preview

October 17, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

How much should fans enjoy the final two weeks of this football regular season?

There are 93 leagues for the sport statewide, and 35 championships remain completely up for grabs. Another 35 leagues have had one team clinch a share of the title but still have the possibility for another to join the celebration.

And the playoff picture is similarly a slightly-filled canvas. A total of 346 teams (out of 531 total) remain eligible for at least an additional qualifier berth in the 256-team 11-player field. A total of 110 teams have secured their spots – but 86 more teams can clinch with a win this week.

On the 8-player side, the 32 playoff spots will remain in flux through Week 9 – and it looks like up to 55 teams still have a chance to make that field.

Below again is a look at many games that will tilt these numbers this weekend. The MHSAA.tv live streaming schedule includes 33 games – click for the full listing and links to each game. All games below are Friday unless noted.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

Marine City (7-0) at Marysville (5-2)

The Mariners handed St. Clair its lone league loss last week to earn a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title, and will finish the league schedule against the other team tied for second in Marysville. If the Vikings are able to break a two-game losing streak in this series, it will create a three-way shared Silver championship. But they will have to crack a Marine City defense giving up just 8.4 points per game.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Fenton (6-1) at Goodrich (6-1), Flint Powers Catholic (5-2) at Grand Blanc (5-2), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (5-2) at Lapeer (6-1), Montrose (6-1) at Byron (5-2).

Greater Detroit

Romeo (6-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-0)

For the second straight season, Chippewa Valley enters this Macomb Area Conference Red finale with a perfect record and Romeo has a chance to break up the league title with a win. The Bulldogs and Utica Eisenhower are tied for second, one game behind the Big Reds, and Romeo fell only 41-34 last season in giving Chippewa Valley one of the toughest games of its undefeated Division 1 championship run.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Royal Oak Shrine (6-1) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (6-0), Clawson (4-3) at Clinton Township Clintondale (5-2), Farmington (7-0) at North Farmington (7-0), Belleville (7-0) at Livonia Franklin (6-1), Detroit Catholic Central (4-3) at River Rouge (6-1).

Mid-Michigan

Fowler (7-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (7-0)

This season has been a little unfair to the Eagles, and be sure they’ll use that as motivation tonight. It’s hard to not talk about Pewamo-Westphalia – a lot – when the Pirates are outscoring their opponents by a combined 312-14 with five shutouts, including one over reigning Division 8 champion Reading (which is otherwise averaging 52 points per game). But a few miles over from that all-out domination, rival Fowler is outscoring its opponents 295-70, giving up more than 13 points in a game just once, and with a chance to take the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title outright if they get past the rival Pirates for the first time since 2014.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Portland (7-0) at Mason (7-0), St. Joseph (6-1) at DeWitt (5-2), Fowlerville (6-1) at Lansing Catholic (6-1), Olivet (7-0) at Williamston (4-3).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Maple City Glen Lake (6-1) at Charlevoix (5-2)

The leaders of the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders division will meet for the outright championship tonight. A win would give Glen Lake its third straight league title, and of course it would be celebrated – especially bouncing back from last week’s loss to Kingsley. But a win for Charlevoix would be historic; the Rayders not only would clinch a first playoff berth since 2016, but the league title would be the program’s first since 1987 and after a number of runner-up finishes over the years. Glen Lake has won the last six meetings between these teams, including three over the last three years in NMFL play.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Breckenridge (6-1) at Oscoda (7-0), Beal City (7-0) at McBain (4-3), Johannesburg-Lewiston (7-0) at Frankfort (3-4), Ogemaw Heights (5-2) at Grayling (3-4).

Southeast & Border

Milan (7-0) at Carleton Airport (5-2)

Milan claimed a share of the Huron League championship last week. And although third-place Airport can’t win a share as well whatever happens tonight, second-place Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central surely is cheering the Jets on. Milan has won the last eight against Airport, including once in the playoffs, but four of those games were decided by eight or fewer points – including last season’s when the Big Reds won 35-30.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-3) at Saline (6-1), Manchester (5-2) at Grass Lake (6-1), Britton Deerfield (4-3) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-3), Jackson (5-2) at Pinckney (5-2).

Southwest Corridor

Kalamazoo United (4-3) at Constantine (5-2)

As we consider what United will try to accomplish over the next two weeks – defeating Constantine and then unbeaten Schoolcraft to earn a third-straight playoff berth and repeat as Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley champion – it’s important to keep in mind the Titans’ start this fall. They began 0-3 – but the first loss was by two to still-unbeaten Jackson Lumen Christi, and the third defeat by just nine to still-undefeated Berrien Springs. Constantine is in a similar place, however – its losses to Berrien Springs and Schoolcraft were by a combined eight points.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Muskegon Catholic Central (4-2) at Benton Harbor (4-3), Parma Western (5-2) at Marshall (4-3), White Pigeon (6-1) at Mendon (6-1), Dowagiac (4-3) at Vicksburg (5-2).

Upper Peninsula

Traverse City Central (6-1) at Escanaba (6-1)

The Eskymos’ chances of getting some help to climb back into the Great Northern Conference title race are getting slimmer by the week as a three-point Week 4 loss to Marquette still stands as the lone decider for first in that league. But Escanaba can continue to gear up for the playoffs and a run at a fourth-straight District title, and playing much larger Central is a great way to get ready. The Trojans have clinched a share of the Big North Conference title and haven’t lost since Week 1. Interestingly, their six-game winning streak started against Marquette – and they’d surely love to go 2-0 against the GNC’s best after falling to Escanaba by 17 a year ago.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Hancock (4-3) at Calumet (6-1), Iron Mountain (7-0) at L’Anse (4-3), Kingsford (4-3) at Menominee (4-3), Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-3) at Bark River-Harris (5-2).

West Michigan

Muskegon (7-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (6-1)

Championships could be decided all over the Ottawa-Kent Conference this weekend, but this annual matchup in the Black always is one of the most-hyped games in the state and again deserves lots of attention after both teams reached Ford Field last season. Since falling in the 2018 Division 3 Final, Muskegon has been challenged only by East Grand Rapids in a five-point Week 3 win. The reigning Division 2 runner-up Sailors fell to still-unbeaten Rockford by 13 in Week 4 but otherwise have won all of their games by at least 20 points. The Big Reds have won the last four in this series, and regardless of the outcome this latest chapter will be entertaining – the total points scored has increased every game over the last four, with Muskegon winning 55-35 in 2018.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Rockford (7-0) at Grandville (6-1), Ravenna (6-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (7-0), Grand Rapids Christian (5-2) at East Grand Rapids (5-2), Byron Center (7-0) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (5-2) at Hope College.

8-Player

Deckerville (7-0) at Kingston (6-1)

A share of the North Central Thumb League Blue championship goes to the victor, and in Deckerville’s case would guarantee a fourth consecutive league title. Two of the last five years this matchup determined the league champion, and a third time Kingston defeated Morrice to help Deckerville take back a share of first place after falling to the Orioles a week earlier in 2017. The Eagles have won all 12 against the Cardinals since the teams began playing each other regularly in 2010, including a pair of victories last season as they also met in the playoffs.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Burr Oak (5-2) at Climax-Scotts (6-1), Onekama (5-2) at Suttons Bay (7-0). SATURDAY Morrice (7-0) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-2) at Pickford, Mio (7-0) at Gaylord St. Mary (2-5).

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PHOTO: Mason works the ground game during a 21-14 league title-deciding win over Fowlerville on Oct. 4. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)