Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 7 Preview
October 10, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Tonight begins the final third of this football regular season.
And two thirds of the 602 teams eligible for this fall’s MHSAA 11 and 8-Player Playoffs still have a chance to earn what for most is a once or twice-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
That percentage, as well as the number of league championships wrapped up this fall, will change drastically by the end of this Saturday night. Below is a look at some of the games that will have the greatest impact on both lists. You can catch a number of those games and 29 total live on MHSAA.tv – click for the listing and links to those games.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
Bay & Thumb
St. Clair (6-0) at Marine City (6-0)
The winner is guaranteed a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title, which would be Marine City’s second league title in three seasons and St. Clair’s first in 2014. Although the Mariners are scoring more than 40 points per game, their defense has been arguably more impressive giving up only 49 points over six games and no more than 14 to any opponent. But St. Clair – winner of last year’s meeting 35-21 – will provide the toughest test so far. The Saints have averaged 32 points per game against a schedule that’s included four teams still eligible for automatic playoff bids.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Clare (6-0) at Beaverton (6-0), Port Huron (5-1) at Port Huron Northern (5-1), Freeland (5-1) at Saginaw Swan Valley (4-2), Flushing (3-3) at Fenton (5-1).
Greater Detroit
Almont (6-0) at Richmond (6-0)
A share of the Blue Water Area Conference title will go to the victor of this matchup for the third time this decade, and Almont has won six of the rivals’ last 10 meetings. The Raiders, as usual, are a defensive force giving up only 47 points so far while scoring nearly 50 per game against a group that includes two four-win teams and another at 3-3. Richmond’s scores have been closer against a similarly successful set of opponents – and it’s fair to believe this game will be much closer than last year’s 51-12 Almont win.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY South Lyon (6-0) at Walled Lake Western (5-1), Romeo (5-1) at Macomb Dakota (4-2), Orchard Lake St. Mary's (6-0) at Detroit Catholic Central (3-3), Livonia Franklin (6-0) at Dearborn Fordson (5-1).
Mid-Michigan
Carson City-Crystal (4-2) at Breckenridge (5-1)
A 16-6 Week 1 loss to still-unbeaten Beaverton keeps looking better and better for the reigning Division 8 runner-up Huskies, who have yet to be challenged since with a combined 220-14 margin of victory over the last five games. Breckenridge also owns a 3-0 record against Carson City-Crystal since joining the Mid-State Activities Conference, and last year’s 30-12 win clinched the league title. Tonight’s meeting will decide the outright championship again – and all of the above surely is motivation for the Eagles, who quietly will guarantee an eighth-straight winning season with one more victory this fall.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Olivet (6-0) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (2-4), Canton (3-3) at Howell (3-3), St. Johns (4-2) at Fowlerville (5-1), Williamston (4-2) at Mason (6-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Harbor Springs (5-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (6-0)
It’s hard to beat out a matchup of undefeated league leaders for the week’s top game (see Glen Lake/Kingsley below). But while those two are setting the pace in their divisions of the Northern Michigan Football League – in fact, Glen Lake has clinched a share of the Leaders – this matchup should decide the outright champion of the NMFL Legacy, either tonight or eventually. A victory this evening would give the Rams the championship after they finished second in the Legacy two of the first five seasons since the league was formed. Johannesburg-Lewiston won last season’s title thanks to an 18-15 win over Harbor Springs – and while a victory tonight would earn the Cardinals only a share of this year’s crown, their final obstacle to claiming it outright would be a Week 9 opponent that hasn’t won a game this fall.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (6-0) at Kingsley (6-0), Traverse City West (4-2) at Cadillac (4-2), Mancelona (4-2) at Charlevoix (4-2), Traverse City Central (5-1) at Alpena (3-3).
Southeast & Border
Jonesville (5-1) at Reading (5-1)
No one should be surprised Reading is playing tonight for a share of the Big 8 Conference title – the reigning Division 8 champion Rangers are attempting to win their third-straight league championship and have been tripped up by only unbeaten Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 1. Jonesville, meanwhile, is enjoying its most memorable season in years as it pursues its first league title since 2002 after last week guaranteeing its first winning season since 2013. Also not surprising: After being shut out by the Pirates, Reading has averaged nearly 53 points per game in league play. But the Comets have given up only 43 total including just 18 in their opening night loss to still-unbeaten Hillsdale.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-2) at Clinton (6-0), Dexter (5-1) at Pinckney (5-1), Coldwater (5-1) at Parma Western (5-1), Ida (3-3) at Hillsdale (6-0).
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Lakeview (6-0) at St. Joseph (6-0)
While this doesn’t mean anything of league significance to the leaders of their respective Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference divisions, it could provide a nice confidence boost as both programs should have an opportunity for a special postseason as well. Lakeview is the best in the SMAC East, having clinched a share of that title after two straight sub-.500 overall season finishes, and the Spartans yet to allow an opponent to get within single digits. St. Joseph is tied with Portage Northern for first in the SMAC West, with its most impressive offensive and defensive output so far since finishing 10-2 in 2015.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Vicksburg (5-1) at Paw Paw (6-0), Delton Kellogg (4-2) at Kalamazoo United (3-3), Decatur (3-3) at Centreville (4-2), Jackson Lumen Christi (6-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (3-3).
Upper Peninsula
West Iron County (5-1) at Ishpeming (4-2)
Tonight’s winner moves into first place by a game in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron with two league games to play. These two decided the title last season, as Ishpeming won their regular-season meeting 14-0 and then came back four weeks later and beat West Iron in their Division 8 District Final 38-0. This latest round might be decided when the Wykons are on offense. They score only 25 points per game, yet Ishpeming has given up more than 30 in four games – but won two of those.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Menominee (4-2) at Marquette (2-4), Hancock (4-2) at Iron Mountain (6-0), L'Anse (4-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (4-2), Gladstone (3-3) at Escanaba (5-1).
West Michigan
Hudsonville (5-1) at Rockford (6-0)
There’s still time for the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red to get shaken up regardless of what happens this weekend – Rockford finishes with third-place Grandville and fourth-place East Kentwood, and the Eagles still face the Falcons and Holland West Ottawa. But this one will play a role regardless of what’s yet to come. The Eagles somewhat stunned previously-undefeated Grandville 44-21 last week, and are only a one-point Week 2 loss to Holt from undefeated – and Holt suddenly looks like one of the Lansing area’s best. The Rams clinched a spot in the playoffs for the MHSAA-record 25th straight season, and this actually has been their best start since 2009 – despite playing nonleague versus Muskegon Mona Shores, Grand Rapids Christian and Lowell, all in contention for their O-K divisions’ titles.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Zeeland East (5-1) at Byron Center (6-0), Cedar Springs (5-1) at Lowell (4-2), Central Montcalm (6-0) at Reed City (4-2), Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1) at Spring Lake (4-2).
8-Player
Brethren (4-2) at Mesick (5-1)
Like the stories for many 8-player teams, 11-player football was not frequently kind to either of these teams for quite a few years before they made the switch – Brethren in 2016 and Mesick a year later. But the Bobcats are the reigning West Michigan D League champions, and Mesick was runner-up its debut season and is playing this fall for its first league title since 1998. Aside from a 44-38 loss to Mio in Week 1, Mesick has been a rare 8-player defensive force giving up 26 points total over the last five weeks with three shutouts. Brethren has scored 60 or more points three times over the last five weeks, making those units the likely key matchup.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY International Academy of Flint (4-2) at Morrice (6-0), Pickford (5-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-0), Kinde-North Huron (5-1) at Deckerville (6-0). SATURDAY Onekama (5-1) at Portland St. Patrick (6-0).
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PHOTO: Howell players charge onto the field prior to Friday’s game against Salem, an eventual 65-7 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)