Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

All Hands on Deck, P-W Earns 1st Title

November 26, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

DETROIT – Jared Smith’s final football game in a Pewamo-Westphalia uniform ended Saturday how he’d always dreamed.

He waved his arms up and down during the final seconds, beckoning to the crowd for a final blast of cheers as he first hugged teammates, then hoisted up assistant coach Nathan Thelen and spun him around a few times for probably his longest carry of the Division 7 Final.

With that, the most successful decoy in MHSAA championship game history began celebrating the history-making event that’s always mattered most. 

It was apparent by halftime Saturday there would be no career rushing record for the Pirates senior back, who will graduate atop all-time lists in five other categories. He didn’t score this time and didn’t even lead his team in rushing. But the second-most traveled rusher in more than a century of Michigan high school football ended as a champion, drawing so much attention from opponent Detroit Loyola that his teammates could do the lifting in a 28-14 win at Ford Field.

“We have so many weapons on the team this year, so many tremendous athletes. … Teams are going to key on me just because of what I’ve done, and it opens up things for everybody else,” Smith said. “When everybody steps up, we’re hard to stop. 

“I’ve got no problem with how we win if we come out with the win. I said at the beginning that I don’t care about my records. I just wanted a state championship.”

That championship was the first in Pirates football history, coming in their third Finals appearance, the final victory of a perfect 14-0 run. They entered the playoffs ranked No. 2 in Division 7 and beat No. 1 Traverse City St. Francis, No. 3 Saugatuck and No. 4 Ubly on the way to Detroit before downing No. 5 Loyola.

Last season, P-W led into the final four minutes of the Division 7 championship game before falling 22-16 to Ishpeming. And the lessons from that day – plus the familiarity with this stage from that trip – clearly paid off for a team that returned nine starters on both sides of the ball and the second player to go over 8,000 yards rushing for his career.

Smith entered with 8,140 yards over four varsity seasons, only 291 yards shy of the career record set by East Grand Rapids’ Kevin Grady from 2001-04. But Saturday, Smith ran for a mere 48 on 20 carries, not even the most on his team – but enough to open up opportunities for the Pirates’ pair of quarterbacks, senior Ryan Smith and junior Jimmy Lehman. They orchestrated an attack that scored the second-most points Loyola had allowed in the playoffs over the last five seasons – second only to the 30 P-W scored against the Bulldogs in a Semifinal win last fall.

Ryan Smith led the Pirates in rushing with 81 yards and a touchdown, while Lehman was 6 of 8 passing for 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns tosses to senior Logan Hengesbach. Lehman also added a touchdown run from a yard out with 5:05 to play.

That Lehman run score not withstanding, it’s been a little predictable which quarterback was going to do what. But with the Bulldogs keying on Jared Smith, it didn’t matter much. Lehman’s first touchdown pass came on play-action after a fake handoff to Smith. Ryan Smith’s running touchdown came after a fake dive up the middle to Jared, which drew the interior of Loyola’s defense as Ryan ran right two yards into the end zone.

“(The quarterback predictability) does speak to the play of our offensive line, which was solid today,” P-W coach Jeremy Miller said. “When Ryan comes in, we’re reading some stuff, and we want to get him going with his legs, but Ryan can also throw the ball, hurt you through the air. When Jimmy comes in, it’s more of a passing look for us, and we use him as more of a blocker, but then today Jimmy got a big play for us at the end of the game with his legs.

“To both of their credits, for the last two years they didn’t care who was in, they didn’t care who was carrying the ball, what we were doing. They supported each other, and that’s an example of the brotherhood we had on this team.”

Loyola, a three-time finalist this decade and the champion in 2014, pushed to the end despite facing a three-score deficit with just under nine minutes to play.

The Bulldogs (11-3) got on the board with an 18-yard touchdown pass from senior Price Watkins to junior tight end Keith Johnson, followed by a two-point run by Watkins that made the score 21-8. After Lehman’s run touchdown, Loyola drew to the final deficit on sophomore D’Vaun Bently’s scoring run with 2:04 to play.

The Bulldogs’ late offensive start surely wasn’t helped by the absence of senior Malcolm Mayes, who didn’t play (and was reported earlier in the week to be injured). The usually run-heavy veer offense gained only 123 yards on 38 carries and 186 yards of total offense.

“They attack with the D ends. They really were crashing them,” Watkins said. “So it was hard to make those outside runs. We run a veer, and it’s outside – so they crashed down with the D ends, and basically stopped us from running our plays.”

Senior linebackers Nathan Smith and Devon Pung led the Pirates’ defensive effort with nine and seven tackles, respectively. The most impressive individual defensive performance, however, came from Loyola senior linebacker Kailen Abrams – he had 16 tackles, including 4.5 for losses, at one point taking down Ryan Smith two plays in a row to help force a field goal attempt that ended up no good.

Total, the Bulldogs had nine tackles for losses and a sack. But the Pirates just kept coming.

“Our plan going in there was more concerned with that quarterback read (by Ryan Smith) than Jared. I thought with our speed, I thought we could contain Jared, but we were concerned with the read with the quarterback,” Loyola coach John Callahan said. “And he did an outstanding job on the read. He rode that until the very end, tucked it and took it.

“We watched enough film on them to know they had some receivers, had some guys. Early on that first half, the kids made some big-time plays. … (But) they aren’t just Jared, and obviously you saw that.”

Click for the full box score.

The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard. 

PHOTOS: (Top) P-W quarterback Ryan Smith breaks a Detroit Loyola tackle during Saturday’s Division 7 Final. (Middle) Logan Hengesbach (5) and Garrett Trierweiler celebrate one of Hengesbach’s two touchdown catches.