Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
After Lean Years, Ubly Returns to Regional
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
November 9, 2016
Aaron Klama sat in the stands in 2008 watching his brothers play for Ubly in the Division 7 championship game at Ford Field.
Klama was 10, and Ubly was at the peak of the strongest decade in program history. Even though his brothers and their teammates lost against Traverse City St. Francis, Klama remembers wanting to be like them. Wanting to have the same opportunity to play on that field.
There’s plenty of work for Klama and his Ubly teammates left to do, but after some rough years for the program, the Bearcats are 11-0 and two wins from getting back to the pinnacle of high school football in Michigan.
“I feel like it’s amazing just being able to possibly be in the same shoes as my brothers,” Klama, a senior offensive and defensive tackle for Ubly, said. “Hopefully I’ll be able to push my team further than they even went. But everything has just been amazing this year.”
Ubly is in the middle of its best season since 2010. It will play at 1 p.m. Saturday against New Lothrop at Chesaning High School in a Division 7 Regional Final. A win sends the Bearcats to the Semifinals for the first time since 2009 and the fifth time in school history. All four of the previous trips came between 2003 and 2009, during a 12-year playoff streak for Ubly that stretched through 2012.
That streak ended in 2013, when the current seniors were freshmen. Ubly was 3-6 during both the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
“We had a couple years where numbers were really down,” Ubly coach Dave Kaufman, who took over the program in 2011, said. “In (2013 and 2014), we were playing with 14 to 16 kids. We had some small senior classes.
“It was tough. We’re used to being in the 20s, and the first couple years our numbers were pretty good. We had some small senior classes, and the injury bug kicked our butt, too. When you’re down in numbers as it is, that’s when you’re starting to bring up freshmen and sophomores.”
That included running back Derek Brown, who started as a freshman for the Bearcats and has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his four seasons. It included Klama, running back and defensive back Nate Keller and several others who were playing at the varsity level as sophomores.
As much as it may have hurt at the time, getting that experience is paying dividends now.
“I think (having players play as underclassmen) helped,” Kaufman said. “I think it also helps that we have a really good senior group. Some of these kids have been playing for three or four years, and that definitely helps.”
In 2015, Ubly was back in the postseason, finishing the year 7-3 and turning the program back in the right direction. What happened between the end of that season and the beginning of this one is what Ubly’s players credit for their current success.
“Everybody was in the weight room all winter, and everybody wants to win on the team,” Keller said. “We didn’t just have two guys in the weight room; it was 15 or 16 guys in there, busting their butts.
“We had guys that would be telling everybody to get into the weight room, because we want to win more than anybody. We had a few leaders that told everybody to get in there.”
After struggling as underclassmen, turning things around in 2015 and setting the tone with a strong offseason prior to this fall, Ubly had high hopes entering its Week 1 game against a tough Unionville-Sebewaing opponent.
Then the Bearcats fumbled on their first offensive play.
“It was kind of like, ‘We can only go up from here, I guess,’” Keller said. “I think that just fueled the fire. We were ready to play from there.”
Ubly responded, and won 28-18, showing its coach something in the process.
“That could have went the wrong way there,” Kaufman said. “That told me a lot about my team right there.”
His team showed him more in a 21-16 win against Cass City, a game in which the Bearcats trailed during the second half. A 54-34 win against Vassar had Ubly sitting at 3-0 after a stretch Kaufman said he would have been happy to finish 2-1.
Ubly rolled through the Greater Thumb Conference East, outscoring opponents by an average of 37.4 points per game. It has picked up playoff wins against Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port and Unionville-Sebewaing, setting itself up for the matchup with a tough New Lothrop team.
Ubly is back where it expects to be, and it has done it the same way it did during the 2000s, by wearing on its opponents with a strong run game out of the T-formation and a strong defense.
Ubly has rushed for 3,500 yards and 51 touchdowns this season, taking advantage of an offensive line (including tight ends) that features five seniors. Brown has led the way with 1,188 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, while senior Jonathon Brandel has 861 yards and 14 touchdowns -- adding four receiving scores plus two interception returns and one punt return for touchdowns. Keller and junior quarterback Matt Maikzrek have combined for nearly 1,000 yards and 14 more rushing touchdowns.
“We have no problem chugging away, eating up clock,” Kaufman said. “When teams haven’t faced (the T-formation) in a little bit, they struggle a little bit with the keys. We try to hide the football as well as we can, and we’re happy getting three, four or five yards a crack. There’s not a better defense than an offense that stays on the field.”
Ubly’s offense is a lot like its attitude through the rough times – just keep moving forward.
“As we walk through the locker room every day, we have a little billboard that says, ‘Those who stay will become champions,’” Klama said. “We slap it on the way out. The coaches even told us that if we stay and work hard, we weren’t going to regret it. They always taught us about loyalty and determination.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Ubly's Casey Sweeney breaks through a pack against Unionville-Sebewaing this season. (Middle) Jonathan Brandel carries the ball for the Bearcats. (Photos courtesy of the Ubly yearbook staff.)