Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review
September 21, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
If Week 4 was an indication, there will be a few new leaders of their packs by the end of this football regular season.
This weekend's highlights included the end of one of the most impressive league winning streaks in the state, a few more headlining upsets and the emergence of a handful of other teams that haven't made the "Drive" in a few seasons.
Bay & Thumb
Midland 21, Mount Pleasant 14
Five of the last six meetings between these Saginaw Valley League Red rivals have been decided by eight points or fewer, with Midland running its streak to three straight over the Oilers. Both are considered playoff contenders this fall, lining up potentially in Division 2 – and if that happens, it’s a strong possibility they could meet again. The Chemics (4-0) also equaled last season’s win total, while Mount Pleasant fell to 3-1. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.
Also noted:
Sanford Meridian 32, Clare 10 – After falling to Clare (1-3) by only two points a year ago, Meridian (4-0) this time ended the Pioneers’ 33-game Jack Pine Conference winning streak that went back to 2010.
Flint Beecher 26, Goodrich 9 – The reigning champion Bucs (4-0) are in the Genesee Area Conference Red driver’s seat again after downing last season’s league runner-up, Goodrich (2-2).
Flint Powers Catholic 10, Davison 0 – After falling to Flushing on opening night, the Chargers (3-1) have given up seven points total in three games, with Davison (2-2) the second to be held scoreless.
Ubly 36, Marlette 12 – The Bearcats equaled their win totals of each of the last two seasons in moving to 3-1 for the first time since 2011, while beating Marlette (3-1) for the first time since 2012.
Greater Detroit
Warren DeLaSalle 30, Birmingham Brother Rice 6
Reigning Division 2 champion DeLaSalle (3-1) had fallen to Brother Rice by seven points or fewer both of the last two seasons, but got past the Warriors for the first time since 2011 to start the Detroit Catholic League schedule off with a key victory. The Warriors (1-3) had three losses combined from 2012-14, but also opened this fall with three tough out-of-state opponents. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.
Also noted:
Lincoln Park 18, Wyandotte Roosevelt 15 – The Railsplitters (3-1) are for real, this week equaling last season’s win total to tie for their best finish already since 2005, while downing annual Downriver League contender Roosevelt (3-1).
St. Clair Shores South Lake 34, Clinton Township Clintondale 8 – The Cavaliers (4-0) continued their nice comeback from 2-7 a year ago and can now circle Oct. 16 against Madison Heights Madison as the possible decider in the Macomb Area Conference Silver, although Clintondale (3-1) remains in the chase facing Madison the week before.
Dearborn Heights Robichaud 49, Redford Thurston 21 – Playoff regular Thurston (2-2) presented a new league challenge to Robichaud (4-0), but not enough as the Bulldogs moved to 2-0 in the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Blue.
Plymouth 24, Livonia Churchill 16 – The Wildcats (3-1) owed this rival some big payback after last season’s 42-0 loss to the Chargers (2-2) that broke a string of three straight games between the two decided by a touchdown or less.
Mid-Michigan
Portland 28, Lansing Catholic 6
Consider Portland’s comeback complete. Not only the Raiders beat their third 2014 playoff team already this fall, and not only did they equal last season’s win total after just four games. But Portland (4-0) also took a major step ahead in the Capital Area Activities Conference White, downing the reigning Division 5 runner-up and holding the usually high-powered Cougars (3-1) to their fewest points since 2009. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Brighton 35, Grand Blanc 12 – The Bulldogs (4-0) also equaled their win total from last season, beating Grand Blanc (3-1) during the regular season for the first time in their seven recent meetings as part of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association.
St. Johns 34, Haslett 32 – The Redwings (3-1) just keep looking more impressive and held off a late charge by Haslett (3-1) to become DeWitt’s biggest obstacle in the CAAC Red.
Lake Odessa Lakewood 61, Stockbridge 42 – There were few defensive stops as Lakewood (4-0) not only equaled its 2014 win total but pulled into lead position ahead of the Panthers (3-1) in the Greater Lansing Activities Conference.
Jackson 35, Lansing Sexton 34 – The Vikings (3-1) bounced back from last week’s seven-point loss by beating Sexton (0-4) for the first time since 2006; the Big Reds’ defeats this season are by a combined 24 points.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Alpena 21, Cadillac 18
Alpena (2-2) has had its share of football struggles over the last decade, but is showing signs of a team on the rise – including this first win over Cadillac since 2007. The Wildcats opened with two losses by 14 and then nine points, respectively, but are 2-0 in the Big North Conference for the first time since their last playoff season of 2004. Cadillac (0-4) owns two three-point losses this season, contributing to its toughest start since 2003 – but could make a run to the finish and hope to reach the postseason at 5-4. Click for more from the Alpena News.
Also noted:
Boyne City 55, Kingsley 28 – The Ramblers (4-0) gave up their most points this season but also scored their most since Week 9 of 2014 against a Kingsley team (2-2) that hadn’t given up more than 14.
Grayling 48, Charlevoix 36 – The Vikings (3-1) pulled within a win of matching last season’s success by extending their streak over the Red Rayders (2-2) to seven straight.
Hillman 22, Rogers City 6 – While never in the same division of the North Star League, this two have played each other for 12 consecutive years; the Tigers (3-1) made it five in a row over Rogers City (2-2), which opened the series with seven straight wins.
Traverse City Central 28, Whitehall 21 – The Trojans (4-0) continued their surge, following up a close win over rival West last week with an impressive victory over previously-undefeated Whitehall (3-1).
Southeast & Border
Brooklyn Columbia Central 21, Hudson 0
The Golden Eagles (4-0) have made a 180-degree turn from last season’s 0-6 start, which included a 43-7 loss to Hudson. Columbia Central won a combined seven games over the last three seasons but looks like the favorite in the Lenawee County Athletic Association after downing the reigning champion Tigers (2-2) and also 2014 runner-up Hillsdale in Week 3. Click for more from the Brooklyn Exponent.
Also noted:
Manchester 23, Grass Lake 13 – The Dutchmen (3-1) have taken control of this Cascades Conference rivalry with three straight wins over the Warriors (2-2).
Petersburg-Summerfield 38, Ottawa Lake-Whiteford 18 – The Bulldogs (3-1) succeeded in bouncing back quickly after losing last week to Morenci, and now will root for Whiteford (3-1) to beat Morenci in Week 7.
Monroe 41, Ann Arbor Skyline 6 – The Southeastern Conference Red is loaded this fall, making this a key win for the Trojans (3-1) over improved Skyline (2-2).
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 27, New Boston Huron 7 – The Falcons (4-0) could be headed for a second straight Huron League title after beating New Boston Huron (2-2), last season’s runner-up.
Southwest Corridor
Berrien Springs 7, Cassopolis 0
This matchup of former Lakeland Conference rivals might turn out to be a meeting between eventual Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference champions. Berrien Springs scored near the end of the first quarter, and hung on through a weather delay to hand Cassopolis (3-1) its first loss. The Shamrocks (4-0) are one of four teams in the BCS White, while the Rangers are one of four in the BCS Red and frontrunners in that league thanks to a Week 2 win over Mendon. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 28, St. Joseph 14 – Lakeshore (3-1) remains in the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West race thanks to this win, necessary after a one-point loss to Portage Central in Week 3; St. Joseph (3-1) gets Portage Central in Week 9.
Hartford 32, Gobles 29 – The Indians (1-3) struggled at the start this season, but handed Gobles (3-1) its first loss of the fall.
Edwardsburg 26, Paw Paw 6 – The new-look Wolverine B Conference is filled with contenders, but Edwardsburg (4-0) remains at the top after downing playoff regular Paw Paw (2-2).
Battle Creek Lakeview 48, Mattawan 14 – After two straight losses and with two tough league crossovers ahead, the Spartans (2-2) needed a stand against a Mattawan team (2-2) in a similar spot.
Upper Peninsula
Newberry 31, Munising 14
It's early, of course. But at 3-1 and with a win over Munising, Newberry could be setting up for its best season in more than a decade. The Indians will have a tough time winning the Mid-Eastern Conference after losing to Bark River-Harris in Week 3, but are two wins off last season’s total and haven’t won six games since 2005. The Mustangs (3-1), last season’s Division 8 runners-up, had won 17 straight regular-season games and can create an interesting scenario at the top of the league standings when they face Bark River-Harris in Week 7.
Also noted:
Marquette 28, Escanaba 21 – The Redmen (1-3) loaded their nonleague slate and got off to a tough start, but are in first in the Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference with Escanaba (2-2) dropping its second straight.
Crystal Falls Forest Park 28, Felch North Dickinson 20 – The Trojans (2-2) have had three games decided by eight points or fewer, and this was the first in their favor; it also dropped the Nordics to 1-3.
Negaunee 28, Iron Mountain 14 – Negaunee (4-0) avenged a three-point loss to the Mountaineers (2-2) from last season to move to 2-0 in the Mid-Peninsula Conference.
Ishpeming 46, Ishpeming Westwood 6 – The Hematites (4-0) continue to own this rivalry with 20 straight wins over the Patriots (2-2).
West Michigan
Zeeland West 38, Comstock Park 28
This was one of the most challenging wins of the Dux’ 20-game regular-season winning streak, and certainly a different story than last season’s 57-7 win over Comstock Park. The Panthers (3-1) jumped out to a two-touchdown lead before the punishing running game and defense caught stride for West (4-0). Both are favorites in their divisions of the Ottawa-Kent Conference, with play beginning this week. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Muskegon Mona Shores 30, Caledonia 7 – The offense gets the praise, but the defense definitely was most impressive in this one for the Sailors (4-0), who have given up only 31 points this season; Caledonia (2-2) hadn’t scored in single digits since its last meeting with Mona Shores a year ago.
Muskegon 56, East Grand Rapids 28 – The Big Reds (3-1) got four touchdowns from quarterback Kalil Pimpleton after the teams were tied 21-21, and the Pioneers (3-1) were unable to keep pace.
Grand Rapids Christian 24, Zeeland East 20 – While nonleague, this was key for the Eagles (3-1) with the Chix (3-1) one of a number of tough teams dotting the final two thirds of the schedule.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 45, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 – Handing the Crusaders (3-1) their first loss should provide a nice confidence boost for a West Catholic team (2-2) that had won 23 straight games before dropping two of three to start this fall.
8-Player
Cedarville 18, Onaway 12
Few have given Cedarville (3-1) a regular-season challenge during the 8-player era, but Onaway (2-2) didn’t make the move to 8-player until this season – and was a solid 4-5 a year ago playing 11-player in the Ski Valley Conference. Onaway’s other loss this season was to Rapid River – which gave Cedarville its only defeat.
Also noted:
Posen 42, Bellaire 6 – The Vikings (4-0) are looking like contenders in Bridge Alliance Conference after arguably their most impressive win since also beating Bellaire (2-2) in 2013.
Burton Madison 38, Akron-Fairgrove 16 – Madison (2-1), in only its eighth game every of 8-player, handed a first loss this season to the much more experienced Vikings (3-1).
PHOTO: Montrose, on defense, stopped Durand 69-0 on Friday to bounce back from two straight losses and improve to 2-2.