Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 14, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Admittedly, last week's statewide slate of varsity football games didn't appear that intriguing on first glance.
Of course, that means we ended up with more noteworthy results than we expected – and some hard decisions picking which had the biggest impacts as we completed the first third of this season.
See below for five of the most significant finishes from every region of the state, plus links to coverage from those that stuck out most.
Bay & Thumb
Marlette 27, Reese 26
The Red Raiders are 3-0 for the fourth time in five seasons, but living a little on the edge after also beating Bad Axe by a point in Week 2. Reese (0-3) opened with 20 straight points, and took back the lead after Marlette’s first go-ahead score made it 21-20 during the second quarter. The Red Raiders took the lead back for good with a final score with just more than six minutes to play. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.
Also noted:
Pinconning 28, Whittemore-Prescott 6 – The Spartans (2-1) ended a five-game losing streak to the Cardinals (1-2), a 10-win team last season, with Pinconning’s start its best since its last playoff season of 2009.
Algonac 50, Imlay City 0 – The Muskrats’ story keeps getting better, with its 3-0 start equaling its best season finish since 2007 and its best start since 1972.
Lake Fenton 49, Montrose 21 – The Blue Devils (2-1) no doubt were happy to equal last season’s win total by contributing to the rival Rams’ first 1-2 start since 2009.
Saginaw Swan Valley 26, Alma 21 – The Vikings are finding their way post-Alex Grace, and moved to 2-1 by handing the Panthers (2-1) their first loss
Greater Detroit
Warren Mott 32, Macomb Dakota 27
After surging to a 26-0 lead, Mott held on against what was one of the state’s most impressive teams of the first two weeks. Dakota opened this fall by ending two-time reigning Division 1 champion Clarkston’s 27-game winning streak, then beat rival Clinton Township Chippewa Valley in Week 2. But Mott moved to 3-0 and in doing so gained nice footing in a Macomb Area Conference Red race that could be one of the most competitive in the state. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 32, Sterling Heights Stevenson 28 – Quarterback Patrick Briningstool’s two touchdown passes during the final five minutes finished a late comeback for the Big Reds (2-1), who avenged last season’s loss to the Titans (2-1).
Detroit Martin Luther King 20, Detroit East English 15 – The Crusaders (3-0) withstood their first tough challenge of the Detroit Public School League schedule and earned their second win by five or fewer points while handing East English (2-1) its first loss.
Sterling Heights 13, St. Clair 10 – The Stallions won two games combined over the last two seasons but are 3-0 for the first time since 1987 after dropping St. Clair to 0-3.
West Bloomfield 35, Clarkston 21 – The Lakers moved to 3-0 for the first time since 1989 thanks in part to four TD runs by Trishton Jackson, while the tough early go continued for the Wolves (1-2).
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 34, Lansing Sexton 32
Grand Ledge had to outlast a previously inexperienced but quickly improving Sexton team to reach 3-0 for the first time since 2011. After just one game of league play, the Comets look like strong favorites in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue, with Jackson the only other team in the league with fewer than two losses overall. Sexton (0-3) hadn’t lost a league game since Week 8 of 2012. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
East Lansing 28, Jackson 21 – Before handing Jackson (2-1) its first loss, the Trojans (1-2) had fallen by only 13 and seven points, respectively, to teams a combined 5-1.
Dansville 40, Fulton 27 – The Aggies have solidified themselves as a top-four team in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference the last few seasons, and for the second year in a row will take on powers Pewamo-Westphalia and Fowler in back-to-back weeks off a 3-0 start.
St. Johns 49, Mason 28 – Seemingly forgotten again in a league with usual favorites DeWitt and Mason (2-1), St. Johns (2-1) looks every bit the contender in the CAAC Red.
Eaton Rapids 34, Ionia 26 (2 OT) – These teams are in similar position in the CAAC White, both facing tough opponents ahead and Eaton Rapids (2-1) thankful for a slight upper hand as Ionia (1-2) must continue to build after a second loss by six or fewer points.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central 32, Traverse City West 26 (OT)
This season’s Patriot Game again went to Traverse City Central, which also celebrated the 600th win in program history and sits fifth all-time among Michigan high schools for varsity football victories. The Trojans (3-0) have beaten rival West (0-3) three of the last four seasons in the annual game at Thirlby Field. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Hillman 35, AuGres-Sims 20 – The Tigers (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to continue a recent winning streak over the North Star rival Wolverines (0-3).
Petoskey 38, Cadillac 13 – The Northmen (2-1) also bounced back from a Week 2 loss to down reigning Big North Conference champion Cadillac (0-3) for the first time since 2011.
Gaylord 17, Escanaba 7 – The Blue Devils (3-0) won this matchup of previous unbeatens, although Escanaba’s start remains its best since 2011.
Grayling 30, Maple City Glen Lake 15 – The Vikings (2-1) got back on the right foot quickly after a big Week 2 loss to rival Gaylord by handing league foe Glen Lake (2-1) its first loss this fall.
Southeast & Border
Morenci 22, Petersburg-Summerfield 8
Morenci’s success of a year ago wasn’t a one-time surge – the Bulldogs have now beaten three 2014 playoff teams to open this fall. Morenci has given up only single-digit points in nine its last 12 regular-season games, although the Tri-County Conference challenges should be tougher this time with Sand Creek rejuvenated and Clinton and Ottawa Lake-Whiteford both undefeated as well so far. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Also noted:
Brooklyn Columbia Central 26, Hillsdale 22 – The Eagles (3-0) won two games last season and hadn’t beaten Hillsdale (1-2) since 2011, including a 41-3 loss to the Hornets a year ago.
Homer 32, Concord 30 – The Trojans (2-1) took the momentum away from Concord (2-1), which had celebrated the week before a solid win over reigning Big Eight Conference champion Union City.
Jackson Lumen Christi 20, Battle Creek Harper Creek 17 – The Titans (3-0) remained undefeated with their second win this season by three points or fewer, and this one much closer than last year’s 34-14 win over Harper Creek (1-2).
Vandercook Lake 41, Addison 7 – The Jayhawks (3-0) early are outscoring opponents on average 36-7 during their best start since 2008.
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central 7, Stevensville Lakeshore 6
This was the second time in four seasons these teams played to within a point of each other – the other two games were decided by three and 10 – and Portage Central avenged last season’s 20-17 loss in part by blocking Lakeshore’s extra-point try with just under 10 minutes to play. The Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West rivals have split their last four meetings – with the winner of this game going on to win the league title the last three seasons. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Battle Creek Central 35, Battle Creek Lakeview 27 – Central (1-2) broke a four-game losing streak against Lakeview (1-2) after scoring only seven points against the Spartans during those previous four matchups.
Delton Kellogg 21, Constantine 18 – The Panthers (2-1) had dropped all six meetings with Constantine (1-2) when the two were in the former Kalamazoo Valley Association, but are 1-0 against the Falcons now that they are in the Southwestern Athletic Conference.
Kalamazoo Central 18, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 6 – This gives the Maroon Giants (1-2) a 4-3 advantage over the recent history of this rivalry after Loy Norrix (1-2) won last season 20-19.
Coldwater 35, Battle Creek Pennfield 8 – The undefeated Cardinals (3-0) have yet to give up more than eight points in a game this fall and haven’t given up double digits in the regular season since Week 7 of 2014.
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris 56, Newberry 34
Every week the wins are getting more impressive for Bark River-Harris, which moved to 3-0 for the first time since 2009 while handing Newberry (2-1) its first loss. The Broncos literally have doubled their offensive output every week this season, from 14 points in a one-point win over Crystal Falls Forest Park on opening night, to 28 against Gogebic last week and 56 on Friday. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Ishpeming Westwood 20, L’Anse 12 – The Patriots (2-1) won this first matchup between these two since the early 1990s, with L’Anse dropping its first game after two league wins.
Munising 12, Felch North Dickinson 8 – Make that 11 straight regular-season wins for the Mustangs (3-0), although the Nordics (1-2) gave them the toughest test during that run.
Iron Mountain 26, Iron River West Iron County 0 – The Mountaineers (2-0) avenged a 24-0 shutout from a year ago at the hands of the rival Wykons (0-3).
Sault Ste. Marie 35, Marquette 21 – The Blue Devils (2-1) broke a five-game losing streak to Marquette (0-3) to move to 2-1 for the first time since 2008.
West Michigan
Muskegon 39, Grandville 12
Friday turned into a flood of historical references and national headlines from Michigan's west coast after Muskegon became the state's first high school football program to earn 800 varsity wins – which also puts the Big Reds tied for ninth in national high school history. They are 2-1 this season and 800-274-43 dating to 1895 (and watch for more on this on Second Half soon from MHSAA historian Ron Pesch, a Muskegon resident and the expert on the subject). Grandville fell to 2-1. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
East Grand Rapids 35, Caledonia 28 – With plenty of tough competition ahead, this was huge for the Pioneers (3-0) as Caledonia (2-1) also has been one of this area’s most impressive teams early.
Zealand East 39, Hudsonville 33 – Last season’s uncharacteristic 2-7 finish for East (3-0) included a 40-0 loss to Hudsonville (2-1), making this a pretty significant turnaround to say the least.
Ada Forest Hills Eastern 48, Grand Rapids West Catholic 15 – This is a signature win for the still-emerging coach Eddie Ostipow era at Forest Hills Eastern (3-0); the Hawks had dropped all three of their recent meetings with the two-time reigning Division 5 champion.
Muskgon Mona Shores 31, Rockford 10 – Last season’s three-point loss to Rockford (1-2) was Mona Shores’ only defeat of the regular season; the Sailors (3-0) might be even stronger this fall and will have more opportunities to prove it.
8-Player
Rapid River 28, Cedarville 14 – As explained last week, Cedarville’s only regular-season losses of the last three years have come, now three times, to the Rockets (3-0). But for the first time since both moved to 8-player football, they aren’t in the same league – which means a possible rematch in the playoffs for the second straight year would mean infinitely more than this appetizer.
Also noted:
Peck 28, Kinde-North Huron 22 – The generally-powerful Pirates came back from a significant Week 2 loss to Morrice by taking an early upper hand in the North Central Thumb 8-Man League.
Powers North Central 76, Bellaire 14 – Circle Week 8 against Rapid River on the North Central schedule; the Jets (3-0), in their first season of 8-player, are looking that dangerous after winning big over another of the annual powers in Bellaire (2-1).
PHOTO: St. Louis, here adding a few more points in last week's 38-6 win over Breckenridge, is 3-0 for the first time since 1978. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)