Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Ithaca Focuses Again on Number 1
August 17, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
ITHACA – Leaders talked Thursday about getting back to Ford Field after finishing 2014 with a loss.
The coach discussed the value of experience and how seniors are key to a successful season.
Players started their first workout on their home practice field by stretching and working on special teams. When they were thirsty, they drank water. They wore helmets, shoulder pads, shorts and shoes.
Ithaca might’ve had the nation’s longest active 11-player football winning streak snapped last season – but during this afternoon, nothing seemed much different than for about 600 other teams in Michigan looking to begin this fall 1-0.
“That’s the first question everybody asked me last season. But it’s over now, and we’ve just got to focus on this season,” said senior Jake Smith, the returning quarterback, of the five-season run. “There’s not as much pressure anymore. We don’t have to carry on a streak. But we want to start a new one.”
And that's where this practice and any by the Yellowjackets likely will differ from most in Michigan this fall.
The practice field was filled with veterans, with nine starters back on offense and 13 who started at least one game on defense during last season's run to the Division 6 championship game, which ended in a 22-12 streak-breaking loss to Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central.
Those are some key numbers to immediately digest, but numbers became part of the swirl around Ithaca’s incredible run of the last five seasons.
First up was 44 – the number of games Ithaca won in a row to pass Cheboygan for the MHSAA’s longest streak that came all during the playoff era, which began in 1975.
Then came 57 – the number of games Ithaca had won consecutively when it took over sole possession as the nation’s most consistent winner thanks to a loss by Regina High School in Iowa City, Iowa, last August.
There was 72 – the number of consecutive wins by Hudson from Sept. 1968-Nov. 1975 that remains the MHSAA record, although, it is noted, that streak included only one playoff win before Hudson fell in the inaugural Class C Final to see its run end.
Finally, the end came at 69 – the number of games Ithaca won from opening night in 2010 until falling in to Monroe St. Mary on Nov. 28.
And now there’s only 1 – the number of wins in a row Ithaca will play for when it opens against Clare on Aug. 28, and the ranking in its division the Yellowjackets will strive for again after winning four of the last five Division 6 titles.
“I hate to think of it as a start over,” Ithaca coach Terry Hessbrook said as his team started its first practice at home after three days of camp in Hawks, near Rogers City. “There’s lots of experience out here, and it’s been a nice few days. I haven’t had to raise my voice because they know what the goal is, and they know what the process is that you’ve got to go through to get to it. And it’s quite a climb – you don’t get to start where you finish (the year before).
“(But) you finish on such a high, even if you lose.”
Rewind to last season’s loss, if only for a minute.
Monroe St. Mary relied in part on a senior quarterback in Bryce Windham and a 1,000-yard rusher in senior running back John Lako. Ithaca, meanwhile, returned to Ford Field with only six seniors and only a few who played significant roles – and really, were a surprise after conquering a road that included No. 8 Millington, No. 10 Madison Heights Madison and No. 5 Boyne City, the final two wins decided by senior-like clutch play in the fourth quarter.
Ithaca and Monroe St. Mary literally traded scores in the Final, although Ithaca never led. Smith ran for a 3-yard score with 33 seconds left in the third quarter to pull the Yellowjackets to within three points at 15-12. But neither team scored again until St. Mary added a touchdown with 1:41 to play.
And yet, the welcome at home that night had Ithaca feeling like it was a champion still.
“We had more people show up when we returned than maybe when we won the third or fourth (title),” said Hessbrook, who starred as a running back at Ithaca from 1982-84 and took over as head coach before the 2004 season. “The community kind’ve stood in unison and said, ‘That was pretty cool that we just got to go on that ride.’
“I get chills just talking about it.”
There could be more to come.
Smith, who has had college football conversations with Harvard and Yale among others, threw for 2,134 yards and 27 touchdowns last season and ran for 1,391 more yards and 20 scores. His top three receivers last season all were juniors; Spence DeMull is recovering from an injury, but caught 66 passes for 1,193 yards and 16 TDs. Senior Jace Demenov, the team’s leading tackler the last two seasons, is moving from offensive line to a tight end/receiver combo and is among a few who should emerge as reliable targets. Nose tackle Jonah Loomis was the team’s second-leading tackler last season and also is a senior this fall.
Eight of this season’s seniors were on the varsity as sophomores, so they’ve played 28 games – including 10 during the playoffs. Still, Ithaca is coming off a loss … not something it’s been used to of late.
“(Local people) ask who is coming back, and we just say everybody,” Demenov said. “In years past, people knew who was coming back and what it was going to be like. People are asking this year who do we have, are we going to be good.
“It’s a game that we lost, an important game for us. We all worked for it, and to have an ending like that really bugged us. It was fun saying we had the longest streak in the nation, but the pressure’s not off. We’re coming back stronger than ever.”
As one might expect, history says Ithaca should remain elite. Hudson went 9-0 in 1976 coming off its streak-ending loss in the 1975 Final. Cheboygan won 10 of its next 11 starting at the end of 1982 and finished 1983 at 8-1. Farmington Hills Harrison came off the end of its 36-game winning streak from 1999-2002 by finishing the latter 8-3 and going 11-2 in 2003, and Fowler won the 1998 Class D title with a 10-3 record after seeing its 33-game win streak end in a 1997 Regional Final.
Still, there isn’t a script Hessbrook can refer to in this situation since so few have been in such a spot. He said it’s up to these seniors to leave their mark – be it playing 10 games, or 12, or getting all the way back to Ford Field.
Winning 14 in a row wouldn’t be 70 or 71 – but more than good enough, even if it comes with fewer people watching Ithaca’s every move.
“I think they should follow us,” Smith said. “We slipped up one game. We’re still a great team that’s going to go out there and put on a show for the fans.
“Anybody that follows us this year is not going to be disappointed.”
Geoff Kimmerly joined the MHSAA as its Media & Content Coordinator in Sept. 2011 after 12 years as Prep Sports Editor of the Lansing State Journal. He has served as Editor of Second Half since its creation in Jan. 2012. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for the Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Gratiot, Isabella, Clare and Montcalm counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Ithaca players work on a blocking drill during Thursday's practice. (Middle) Coach Terry Hessbrook, left, explains how to field a kick to one of his special teamers. (Below) Jake Smith, carrying the ball, follows blocker Grant Gimmey.