Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
A Game for Every Fan: 11-Player Semis
November 21, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This season's MHSAA football playoffs have featured their share of the unpredictable, to say the least – down to snow-driven changes we've made to the schedule as recently as Friday afternoon.
But on the field, this set of matchups as a whole could be the most competitive we've seen in some time. And we're all excited to let the games begin.
See below for brief previews of all 16 Semifinals. All are set for 1 p.m. Saturday unless noted; the only Friday game is Munising vs. Beal City at the Superior Dome.
All 16 games will be streamed live either as part of the FoxSportsDetroit.com Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv. Venue changes have led to some adjustments, so make sure to click here for up-to-date information as we receive it and links to watch.
DIVISION 1
East Kentwood (11-1) vs. Clarkston (12-0) at Brighton High School
East Kentwood’s best season since 2002 has come down to a face-off with reigning champion Clarkston. The Falcons could work to control tempo with a rushing game averaging 235 yards per game. But they’re also giving up 204 yards rushing per game – good news for Clarkston junior running back Nolan Eriksen, who has run for 1,239 yards and 18 touchdowns, and senior quarterback D.J. Zezula (745 yards and 12 TDs rushing to go with 1,930 yards and 18 TDs passing.
Saline (11-1) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (12-0) at Troy Athens High School
Saline carries an 11-game winning streak into its first Semifinal; the Hornets’ only loss came on opening night, by three, to Division 2 semifinalist Muskegon Mona Shores. They’ve drawn tournament veteran Cass Tech, playing a Semifinal for the fifth straight season and led by arguably the best player in the state in senior running back Mike Weber. He’s committed to the University of Michigan and has run for 2,050 yards and 28 touchdowns, with 404 yards in last week’s Regional Final.
DIVISION 2
Muskegon Mona Shores (11-1) vs. Farmington Hills Harrison (10-2) at Howell High School
Two years ago, Mona Shores had never made the playoffs. Two years later, it might be the favorite in Division 2 thanks in part to senior quarterback Tyree Jackson (2,213 yards and 23 TDs passing, 773 yards and 14 TDs rushing). Harrison is much more familiar with this stage; this is its first Semifinal since 2010, when it went on to claim the most recent of an MHSAA-best 13 football championships. Among those lining up across Jackson will be Hawks senior linebacker Michael Ojemudia, who will be key also in stopping a rushing game with more than 3,000 yards this fall.
Southfield (9-3) vs. Warren DeLaSalle (9-3) at Novi High School
Both of these are considered small surprises that have picked up big wins on the way – Southfield over Detroit Martin Luther King in their playoff opener and DeLaSalle over three-time reigning champion Birmingham Brother Rice last week. But both rosters are filled with dynamic difference-makers. Southfield senior defensive back Dior Johnson is committed to Wake Forest University, and receiver/defensive back Ray Buford is committed to Minnesota University. DeLaSalle senior defensive linemen Khary Harris (6-foot-3/234 pounds) and Mike Danna (6-3/233) key a front that is giving up a meager 73 yards rushing per game.
DIVISION 3
Muskegon (11-1) vs. Zeeland West (12-0) at Greenville High School
Muskegon was Division 2 runner-up the last two seasons, and West is the reigning champ in Division 3. These two might be least affected by crummy weather than any others Saturday. Muskegon can ride the running of senior back Caleb Washington (1,422 yards, 14 TDs) and senior quarterback Shawn Pfenning (466/14). West has accumulated an incredible 4,870 rushing yards through its devastating T offense, led by senior Nick Jasch (1,366 yards, 25 TDs) and junior Darius Perisee (1,276/20).
Orchard Lake St. Mary's (12-2) vs. New Boston Huron (11-1) at Dearborn High School
The Eaglets are two close losses to Brother Rice from perfection and fitting their usual mold with another dominating pair of running backs, this season juniors Brandon Adams (1,251 yards, 15 TDs) and Justin Myrick (969/10), and a big-time defensive back in Michigan State University recruit Tyson Smith. Huron is a new arrival in the Semifinals but carries impressive credentials. The Chiefs’ lone loss was to Division 6 semifinalist Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, in Week 3, and junior quarterback Matt Hartwick is a handful with 1,265 yards and 15 TDs rushing and 1,052 yards and 11 TDs passing.
DIVISION 4
Grand Rapids South Christian (10-2) vs. Edwardsburg (11-1) at Jackson High School, 3 p.m.
The Sailors are working for a third-straight championship game appearance after winning Division 4 in 2012 and falling to Marine City in last year’s Final. They’ve been uncommonly balanced (2,482 rushing yards, 2,277 passing), as characterized by standout senior quarterback Jon Wassink (1,078 yards, 16 TDs rushing; 2,169 yards, 23 TDs passing). Edwardsburg is easier to read but no easier to stop. The Eddies have run for 4,346 yards to 683 passing, led by sophomore Isaiah Miller (1,485 yards, 22 TDs) and senior Dustin Vires (1,267/17).
Lansing Sexton (12-0) vs. Detroit Country Day (8-4) at Fenton High School
This ties the longest playoff run for Lansing Sexton, which is relying on a talented group of seniors that has carried the Big Reds to a 24-1 record over the last two seasons and just missed making last year's Final. Quarterback Malik Mack has thrown for 1,418 yards and 17 touchdowns – 11 to senior Rayshawn Wilborn – and seniors JaVon Wray and Avonte’ Bell have combined to run for 2,582 yards. Country Day made the playoffs as an at-large qualifier but is only two seasons off an MHSAA title. A player to watch is senior running back Jacob Hill, who has eight touchdowns rushing, three receiving, another on a kickoff return and one more off an interception.
DIVISION 5
Menominee (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (12-0) at Northern Michigan University Superior Dome, 11 a.m
This is a rematch of last season’s championship game, a 27-14 West Catholic win. The scenario is a bit reversed this time, with West Catholic making the trip north but with an even more impressive body of work than in 2013. Senior quarterback Travis Russell is back and has thrown for 1,976 yards and 30 touchdowns and run for 1,274 yards and 20 scores. Similarly, Menominee also returns its top offensive player, senior back Justin Brilinski, who has run for 1,515 yards and 23 TDs and thrown for 1,686 yards and 18 scores.
Lansing Catholic (12-0) vs. Almont (12-0) at Brighton High School, 4:30 p.m.
This should be a battle of styles. Lansing Catholic will look to make its second championship game in four seasons keyed by the high-scoring heroics of 6-7, 230-pound junior quarterback Tony Poljan, who has thrown for 2,405 yards and 32 touchdowns and run for 871 yards and 20 scores. Almont is much more traditional offensively, eating up yards with senior running back Mike Couch (1,230 yards, 25 TDs) and junior running back Nick Baker (1,228/19). And the defense has been one of the state’s most impressive giving up only 68 points and 1,420 yards.
DIVISION 6
Boyne City (12-0) vs. Ithaca (12-0) at Midland Community Stadium, 2 p.m.
Ithaca last week survived perhaps its greatest scare during a national-best 68-game winning streak, trailing Madison Heights Madison into the fourth quarter before scoring three times over the final seven minutes. The team has only four seniors, but as usual is led by an all-state caliber quarterback in junior Jake Smith (1,830 yards, 25 TDs passing, 1,247 yards, 17 TDs rushing). Boyne City is the next with a chance to making history by ending some, and returns to the Semifinals for the first time since another 12-0 start in 2001. The Ramblers probably won’t add to their total of six shutouts, but could slow the Yellowjackets more than most.
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (11-1) vs. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (11-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek High School
NorthPointe Christian has seemingly gained steam as it’s built its best season of a seven-year football history; the Mustangs have actually increased their scoring average during the playoffs four points per game to just more than 42. Senior quarterback Luke VanDyke (1,143 yards/15 TDs passing, 561/13 rushing) and senior running back Kenny Willekes (1,194 yards/15 TDs rushing) are responsible for much of that firepower. But St. Mary has eliminated two previously-undefeated teams the last two weeks and tripped up only against Lansing Catholic, in Week 9. Junior Justin Carrabino (1,268 yards, 12 TDs) is one of three backs who have run for at least 800 yards and 12 scores.
DIVISION 7
Ishpeming (11-0) vs. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (11-1) at the Superior Dome, 2 p.m.
The key to two-time reigning champion Ishpeming adding to its 32-game winning streak could be stopping the multiple offensive threats of Seminary, which has scored more than 400 points for the first time since 1995. Senior running back Owen Heyn is averaging 8.4 yards per carry and has run for 12 scores, and senior quarterback Nathanael Lindloff has thrown for 1,515 yards and 25 TDs – including 11 to sophomore Casey Williams, who also has run for seven, scored twice on kickoff returns, twice on punt returns and once off an interception. Junior Ozzy Corp has stepped in strongly at quarterback this season for Ishpeming after the graduation of standout Alex Briones, running for 15 touchdowns and throwing for six more through the regular season.
Pewamo-Westphalia (10-2) vs. Detroit Loyola (12-0) at Jackson High School, 11 a.m.
Loyola has fallen to Ishpeming in the last two Division 7 Finals, but appears to have taken its game to another level with no opponent getting within 28 points including previously-undefeated New Lothrop last week. Senior Marvin Campbell is the top running back again, this fall rushing for 1,639 yards and 28 touchdowns with senior Mideyin Wilson following with 925 yards and 13 scores. But P-W is not unfamiliar with this level, making its third Semifinal appearance in four seasons and with a star in the making carrying the load. Sophomore Jared Smith has run for 2,033 yards and 27 touchdowns, averaging 11 yards per carry.
DIVISION 8
Munising (11-1) vs. Beal City (10-2) at the Superior Dome, 7 p.m. Friday
Munising passed tests against previously-undefeated St. Ignace and powerful Crystal Falls Forest Park the last two weeks, but now must defeat reigning runner-up Beal City to extend its best season since 1980. The Mustangs have the firepower with senior Garrett Blank running for 1,849 yards and 28 touchdowns and senior quarterback Austin Kelto throwing for 18 scores – with no interceptions. Beal City has advanced to the last two Division 8 Finals and is looking to return with a mostly new group, although it impressed again last week in shutting out a potent Baldwin offense.
Muskegon Catholic Central (12-0) vs. Harbor Beach (12-0) at Alma College
No one has been expected to stop reigning champion MCC this fall; a number of the biggest contributors from 2013 are leading the way again, including senior running back Tommy Scott (1,691 yards, 29 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Nick Holt (859/15). But Harbor Beach has been considered one of the candidates to have a shot. The Pirates are back in a Semifinal for the third straight season and won the championship in 2012 before moving into Division 7 for 2013. Waterford Our Lady two weeks ago is the only opponent to score more than seven points this season, and Harbor Beach doesn’t allow many chances with seniors Austin Seltz (1,243 yards/23 TDs) and Josh Schelke (1,219/23) dominating the run game.
PHOTO: Lansing Catholic quarterback Tony Poljan scans the field during last week's Division 5 Regional Final win over Flint Powers Catholic. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)