Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
A Game for Every Fan: Regional & Semifinals
November 13, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Last week's MHSAA District Finals saw the thinning out of a number of favorites among the state's biggest football schools.
But many eyes will be turned this weekend to some of our smallest as they face their biggest moments this season.
The 8-player tournament is down to its Semifinals – and we kick off with previewing those this week before getting into the 11-player Regionals. But from a Regional national news could emerge – Madison Heights Madison might be the most capable team so far of potentially breaking Ithaca’s 67-game winning streak, longest currently in the country among 11-player teams.
All games below are Friday unless noted. Be sure to tune in to MHSAA.com throughout the weekend for results and updated pairings with Semifinal sites expected by Sunday evening.
8-PLAYER
Deckerville (9-2) at Cedarville (10-1), Saturday at DeTour
Only the two teams playing in the other Semifinal have beaten Deckerville, the 2012 MHSAA champion. Running backs Danny Wolfe (1,497) and Ryan Stone (1,123) have run for more than 2,600 of the team’s 3,639 yards on the ground and combined for 52 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Dylan Pattullo has thrown only 33 times – but for 11 scores. Cedarville dominated Bridge Football Alliance rivals Bellaire and Rapid River the last two weeks to a combined score of 67-0 to make its first 8-player Semifinal. Quarterback Joey Duncan played a big part in helping the boys basketball team to last season’s Class D Semifinals and has thrown for 18 touchdowns and run for 12 this fall. Another basketball standout, Brad Causley, has caught 10 of those TD passes, scored twice off interceptions, once on a kickoff return and four times on punt returns.
Lawrence (11-0) at Peck (11-0), Saturday
Two stars of last season’s MHSAA championship run, twins Cody and Kyle Abrego, have Peck lined up for a repeat with Cody running this season for 1,879 yards and 32 touchdowns and Kyle also starting both ways and scoring four times on receptions, one on an interception and another time on a kickoff return. Teammate Caleb Dudley has run for 11 scores and found the end zone after three of his eight interceptions. Lawrence will be easily fired up to see familiar company; the Tigers were cruising in last season’s playoffs before falling 73-34 to Peck in their Semifinal. The Pirates no doubt remember Lawrence’s Derek Gribler, a quarterback/running back who again has been the team’s most dangerous offensive player.
DIVISION 1
Canton (9-2) at Saline (10-1)
Tonight will be familiar at least to fans of Canton, which reached the Regional Final four of five seasons from 2005-09. Putting the Chiefs' record in perspective makes it look even better – they faced six playoff teams during the regular season alone. Saline has tied its team record for wins in making the Regional Final for the second time in three seasons and is seeking its first Semifinal berth. The Hornets haven’t lost since August, when they fell to emerging Division 2 power Muskegon Mona Shores by a mere 31-28.
Other Regional Finals: Hudsonville (7-4) at East Kentwood (10-1), Walled Lake Central (9-2) at Clarkston (11-0), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (8-3) at Detroit Cass Tech (11-0) on Saturday.
DIVISION 2
Southfield (8-3) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (9-2)
The Bluejays are seeking their first Semifinal appearance since 2008 after what most would argue were upsets of Detroit Martin Luther King and Oak Park to win the District title. That said, Southfield’s three losses this fall were by a combined 12 points, all to playoff teams including two more also playing this weekend. Roosevelt finished third in a competitive Downriver League, with two losses to eventual playoff teams. But the Bears are going for their 10th win for the sixth time in seven seasons and last week avenged one of those losses by handing Brownstown Woodhaven its first and lone defeat.
Other Regional Finals: Battle Creek Lakeview (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-1), Flushing (9-2) at Farmington Hills Harrison (9-2) on Saturday, Warren DeLaSalle (8-3) vs. Birmingham Brother Rice (11-0) on Saturday at Berkley.
DIVISION 3
Lowell (10-1) at Zeeland West (11-0)
Arguably the top game in Michigan this weekend matches Ottawa-Kent Conference White co-champ Lowell with O-K Green and reigning Division 3 champion Zeeland West. The less-than-lovely weather hasn’t slowed down either team; the Red Arrows scored a season-high 49 points last week in beating Grand Rapids Christian for the second time this fall, and West has scored more than 500 points for the fourth straight season – although the Dux must bounce back from a scare after needing to outlast Stevensville Lakeshore 30-28 in the District Final.
Other Regional Finals: Petoskey (9-2) vs. Muskegon (10-1) on Saturday at Holton, Mason (8-3) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (9-2) on Saturday, Redford Thurston (8-3) at New Boston Huron (10-1).
DIVISION 4
Eaton Rapids (8-3) at Edwardsburg (10-1)
These two are similar to the point that this game could be done in 90 minutes – both have gotten here with tough running that runs down the clock and leaves little opportunity for opponents. Edwardsburg has a pair of 1,000-plus yard runners and is three points from being undefeated. But Eaton Rapids – under former Holt coach Mike Smith, a playoff veteran – has become something of an unpredictable playoff force. The Greyhounds are 4-1 in two seasons of playoff games after having never made them before Smith took over last fall.
Other Regional Finals: Whitehall (9-2) at Grand Rapids South Christian (9-2), Richmond (10-1) at Lansing Sexton (11-0) on Saturday, Detroit Country Day (7-4) at Chelsea (9-2).
DIVISION 5
River Rouge (10-1) at Almont (11-0)
Almont’s dominating 35-7 win over Marine City in the District Final has made the Raiders a trendy pick to reach Ford Field from this side of the bracket. Eliminating the reigning Division 4 champion will do that, as will outscoring two playoff opponents by a combined 100-7 and putting up 569 points total through 11 games. Almont will face River Rouge for the second time in three seasons after falling 44-22 to the Panthers in a 2012 District Final. Last week’s opponent, Ida, was the first to score on River Rouge in more than a month.
Other Regional Finals: Freeland (10-1) at Menominee (11-0) on Saturday, Reed City (9-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-0), Flint Powers Catholic (8-3) at Lansing Catholic (11-0).
DIVISION 6
Madison Heights Madison (9-2) at Ithaca (11-0) on Saturday
Most opponents face Ithaca not expected to win and with nothing to lose – the Yellowjackets haven’t lost since 2009. But Madison definitely faces some pressure this weekend as the team expected to come closest, at least this season so far, to ending that run. Madison runs a lot – the team has 310 rushes to 104 passes – and with good reason averaging 9.4 yards per carry. But this might be the best defense, at least on paper, in Ithaca history. It hasn’t given up a point in the playoffs and allowed only 66 during the regular season.
Other Regional Finals: Leroy Pine River (8-3) at Boyne City (11-0), Watervliet (10-1) at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (10-1) on Saturday, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (11-0) on Saturday
DIVISION 7
New Lothrop (11-0) vs. Detroit Loyola (11-0) at Detroit U-D Jesuit
It’s been quite a calendar year for New Lothrop’s boys teams, with MHSAA championships in wrestling and baseball. Beating a Loyola football team that has finished runner-up in Division 7 the last two seasons probably shouldn’t count the same – but would still be a giant deal for a Hornets team that has five straight perfect regular seasons but hasn’t made it to Ford Field during that run. Loyola hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2010 or given up more than seven points in a game since September – the Bulldogs’ 69 points against for the season rank them among the best defensively in the state.
Other Regional Finals: Traverse City St. Francis (9-2) vs. Ishpeming (10-0) at the Superior Dome, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (10-1) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (11-0), Bridgman (8-2) at Pewamo-Westphalia (9-2).
DIVISION 8
Mendon (10-1) vs. Muskegon Catholic Central (11-0), Saturday at Grand Haven
Muskegon Catholic Central has certainly played up to expectations this fall, extending its winning streak to 23 games despite taking on a number of larger schools as a first-year member of the Lakes 8 Conference. The Crusaders are supposed to cruise to their second straight Division 8 title. But if they are to be stopped, it could be by Mendon. Only Columbus Hartley from Ohio has come closer to catching MCC than Mendon did in last season's 28-12 Regional Final defeat. With eight straight seasons of at least 10 wins, the Hornets surely aren’t intimidated.
Other Regional Finals: Munising (10-1) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1) at the Superior Dome, Baldwin (10-1) at Beal City (9-2), Morenci (10-1) at Harbor Beach (11-0) on Saturday.
PHOTO: Ithaca, here against Millington in their Division 6 District Final, will look to extend its winning streak to 68 games. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).