Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 10 in Review

November 3, 2014

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

A number of MHSAA football teams began practice last week enjoying the unseasonable warmth and glowing sun – and finished their games playing through some combination of strong wind, rain or snow and freezing temperatures.

The results that emerged from the first week of the postseason were more predictable, but far from automatic.

Of 136 games played over nine divisions, 103 (or 76 percent) were won by home teams – those with higher playoff-point averages than their first-round opponents at the end of the regular season. That means home-field advantage was a pretty good thing – but far from a sure one with seasons and careers hanging in the balance.  

Take a look below at four games that stuck out from each division as the field was split from its original 272 teams.

DIVISION 1

Rockford 20, Traverse City West 14 (OT)

Only three Division 1 games this week were decided by less than two touchdowns, making this the closest of the bunch. At-large qualifier Traverse City West (5-5) has made the playoffs 11 times during its 18-year history – and faced Rockford eight times, including to open the playoffs the last three seasons. This one was clearly closer than last year’s 19-0 Rams victory, with West coming back from a 14-point halftime deficit. The win earned Rockford a rematch with rival Hudsonville in the District Final. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Macomb Dakota 21, Utica Eisenhower 14 – This score was identical and no doubt similarly nerve-wracking for Dakota (8-2) as the first time it played Eisenhower (5-5), in Week 5.

Grand Ledge 14, Hartland 0 – In mid-September, the Comets (7-3) were 1-2; now they’re seeking a first District title since 2005 after beating a league champion in Hartland (7-3).

West Bloomfield 34, Livonia Stevenson 6 – The Lakers (9-1) set a school record for wins with their first playoff victory in school history; Stevenson finished 6-4, one win better than 2013. 

DIVISION 2

Muskegon Mona Shores 42, Caledonia 14

A year ago Mona Shores made the playoffs for the first time; Friday saw the Sailors (9-1) claim their first playoff victory and look even more like a Division 2 contender despite another tough matchup coming this week against undefeated Midland Dow. Mona Shores had beaten Caledonia 40-7 in Week 4, but that was before the Fighting Scots put together a run that included shutouts of Rockford and Lowell and similarly big wins over East Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids Christian. Caledonia finished 7-3, two wins better than in 2013. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Also noted:

Farmington Hills Harrison 42, Fenton 10 – Harrison’s run since falling big to Oak Park in Week 3 keeps getting better and better; the Hawks (8-2) came back from a seven-point defeat to reigning Division 1 champion Clarkston in Week 9 by handing the first and lone loss to Fenton (9-1).

Walled Lake Western 14, South Lyon 13 – The Warriors (9-1) stopped South Lyon and its best season since 2006 with a last stand against the Lions (8-2) during the final minutes.

Southfield 40, Detroit Martin Luther King 12 – The Bluejays (7-3) claimed their second playoff win over King (8-2) in three seasons and this time will again face Oak Park in the District Final. 

DIVISION 3

Lowell 28, East Grand Rapids 27

A series of classics between these Ottawa-Kent White rivals added another chapter, with East Grand Rapids holding the lead into the final three minutes before Lowell moving ahead for good on a 73-yard touchdown reception by Gabe Steed. The Red Arrows (9-1) have won at least one playoff game every season since last falling in an opener in 1999. East Grand Rapids finished 6-4, still its best finish in three years after missing the playoffs the last two. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:  

Dearborn Divine Child 9, Allen Park 7 – Divine Child’s first playoff win since 2010 gave it four more victories than how the Falcons (7-3) finished a year ago and also ended the best season for Allen Park (8-2) since 2011.

Trenton 20, Romulus 6 – The Trojans (7-3) are in the playoffs and have their first playoff win both since 2008 after ending Romulus’ first playoff appearance since 2000; the Eagles (6-4) did double their win total from 2013.

Cedar Springs 36, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 0 – These O-K Bronze rivals played to a 14-8 win for Cedar Springs (9-1) in Week 6, but the Red Hawks found something that worked and ended Forest Hills Northern’s season at 7-3 for the second straight year. 

DIVISION 4

Comstock Park 19, Cadillac 10

On win total alone, this would be a down season so far for Comstock Park (6-4), winners of at least nine games the last four seasons and 12-1 a year ago. But the Panthers have recovered strongly from a 1-3 start that included losses to teams with a combined 25-5 record. Comstock Park also defeated Cadillac in the playoffs a year ago, in the Regional Final, and in both cases it was Cadillac’s lone loss of the season. Click to read more from the Cadillac News.

Also noted:

Hudsonville Unity Christian 46, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 43 – The Crusaders (6-4) earned their first playoff win in program history, edging regular playoff qualifier Catholic Central (6-4) be re-taking the lead during the final minute.

Vicksburg 14, Three Rivers 13 – The Bulldogs’ best run since 1993 will continue after Vicksburg (8-2) avenged its Week 6 loss to the Wildcats (6-4).

Detroit Old Redford 14, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 6 – The Ravens (7-3) earned their first playoff win with a bit of an upset in edging Western Wayne Athletic Conference Red champion Robichaud (8-2). 

DIVISION 5

Calumet 30, Harrison 21

Calumet, the state’s northernmost school, traveled to Harrison in the middle of the Lower Peninsula – and went home with a win as it continued to reverse last season’s 2-7 finish. The Copper Kings opened this fall 1-2 and needed to win out beginning with Week 7 to qualify for the postseason. Harrison also went 2-7 a year ago, finishing 8-2 this time after its first playoff appearance since 1999. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Also noted:

Hopkins 22, Muskegon Oakridge 16 – After falling by six points in its 2012 playoff game and eight points in 2013, Hopkins (9-1) advanced to the District Final against last season semifinalist Oakridge (8-2).

Olivet 33, Stockbridge 32 – This rematch of the deciding game in the Greater Lansing Activities Conference was much closer than when Olivet (8-2) won 69-48 in Week 6; Stockbridge ended its first playoff season since 2010 at 6-4.

Ida 24, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 0 – The Bluestreaks (8-2) earned their first playoff win since 1990 with their second straight shutout in October, this one over Gabriel Richard (7-3), which averaged 31 points per game. 

DIVISION 6

Flint Beecher 21, Montrose 13

These Genesee Area Conference Red rivals met for the second time in three weeks and again played it close, with Beecher following its 19-14 win in Week 8 with a season sweep. The Buccaneers also set a program record for victories in moving to 10-0 for the first time – they were 8-5 in making the Semifinal round in 2012. Montrose finished 6-4. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Also noted: 

Schoolcraft 42, Constantine 28 – The Falcons (8-2) won the Kalamazoo Valley Association title ahead of Schoolcraft, but the Eagles (7-3) will move on and despite falling to Constantine 31-17 in Week 2.

Negaunee 21, Charlevoix 12 – The Miners quickly made their 5-4 record at the start of the playoffs look a lot better, and the Rayders should celebrate 6-4 as well after going 1-8 in both 2012 and 2013.  

Watervliet 22, Niles Brandywine 21 – The Panthers (9-1) made the always-gutsy decision after a touchdown late to go for the two-point conversion and the win instead of a tie, and held on to finish the Bobcats at 8-2 for the second straight season.  

DIVISION 7

Cassopolis 29, Decatur 28 (OT)

Cassopolis slugged through a tough league season, going 1-3 in the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Red (with two one-point losses) in starting the season 2-3 overall. But the Rangers (7-3) took the final edge in this opener on a partially-blocked extra point that still found its way through the uprights, and beat a Decatur team that finished 8-2 and suffered its two losses by a mere combined 10 points. Click for more from the Cassopolis Vigilant.

Also noted:

Cass City 14, Marlette 8 – The Red Hawks (7-3) returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2006 with their first postseason win since 2005, while Marlette (6-4) finished its third winning season over the last four.

Pewamo-Westphalia 39, Union City 7 – P-W (8-2) actually had a negative yard total passing, but ran for 380 in handing Union City (8-2) its second straight loss to finish the fall.

Bridgman 33, Gobles 8 – The Bees (7-2) celebrated their first playoff win ever after bouncing back from a Week 9 loss to rival Buchanan; Gobles finished 7-3, a two-win improvement from 2013. 

DIVISION 8

Bark River-Harris 14, Lake Linden-Hubbell 6

Since a 9-2 finish in 2009, Bark River-Harris won one, zero, one and two games, respectively, before returning to the ranks of the Upper Peninsula small-school elite this fall. Beating solid Lake Linden-Hubbell (7-3) should provide some confidence as well as the Broncos (8-2) prepare for a rematch with Crystal Falls Forest Park, which beat them 48-18 on opening night. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Also noted:

Central Lake 18, Frankfort 6 – The Trojans (6-4) got into the playoffs despite four losses to other eventual playoff teams and made their selection stand up against Frankfort (5-4), in the playoffs for the first time in three seasons.

Johannesburg-Lewiston 35, Hillman 18 – The Cardinals (9-1) set themselves up to take on powerful Beal City for the third time in four seasons by ending the best season for Hillman (8-2) since 2011.

Morenci 25, Petersburg-Summerfield 0 – The Bulldogs (9-1) continued their best run since 2001 with their sixth shutout and second this season of Tri-County Conference foe Summerfield (5-5).

8-PLAYER

Lawrence 57, Portland St. Patrick 6

The Tigers started off this season in dominating fashion while facing only one eventual playoff team over the first five weeks, but haven’t slowed the last five despite taking on some of the best 8-player teams in the state. Lawrence followed up its Week 9 21-point win over Battle Creek St. Philip (9-1) – this week’s Regional Final opponent – with another big win over similarly-strong Portland St. Patrick (8-2). Lawrence has scored fewer than 50 points only once this fall and has yet to give up more than 20.

Also noted:

Rapid River 46, Engadine 26 – The Rockets (10-0) got a much closer game from Engadine (5-5) than the 40-point win in Week 5.

Cedarville 39, Bellaire 0 – These Bridge Football Alliance rivals faced off for the second time in three seasons with the result more of the same for the Trojans (9-1), who ended Bellaire’s season at 7-3.

Kingston 44, Owendale-Gagetown 8 – An 0-2 start made this season look a little like two-win 2013, but Kingston (7-3) has won seven of its last eight and earned a rematch against Owendale-Gagetown (8-2); the Cardinals beat the Bulldogs 48-20 three weeks ago.

PHOTO: Southfield's Kanye Harris follows blockers into Detroit Martin Luther King's defense during the Bluejays' District win over the Crusaders. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)