Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Falcons Soar From Brink to D5 Peak

November 30, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor 

DETROIT – There were more moments than he and his teammates might’ve expected this fall when Drake Wooten sensed his high school career could soon come to an end. 

That wasn’t supposed to be the scenario after Grand Rapids West Catholic advanced to the Division 5 title game in 2012 and returned a number of its top contributors this fall.

But after opening 1-4, there was no room for error. The Falcons' seniors met to prepare for three months living on the edge. 

Teams need to win five playoff games to earn an MHSAA title. But the Falcons needed nine straight victories to claim their first championship since 2010. After scraping by with a one-point win in Week 9 just to earn a chance at an at-large bid, West Catholic stormed through the postseason and finished the run with a 27-14 win over top-ranked Menominee on Saturday at Ford Field.

“We knew ever since (1-4) that it’s a playoff game. Every game could be our last,” Wooten said. “We’ve always trusted in our team. We’ve always trusted in our coaches. We just came out and made plays and stuck to the schemes.” 

Menominee (13-1) and reigning champion Portland – which beat West Catholic 12-9 in the 2012 Final – were the only teams to get within 15 points of the Falcons during this postseason. West Catholic finished 10-4, giving it at least 10 wins in five straight seasons and six of the last seven. All four losses were to eventual playoff teams, including three Semifinalists.

And the Falcons finished the job against a team that beat its first 13 opponents by an average of 36 points and was more than raring to go after being eliminated by West Catholic each of the last three seasons – including twice in Semifinals by four or fewer points. 

“It’s become a power struggle,” West Catholic coach Dan Rohn said. “We look forward to playing them. We don’t like playing them, but we circle it when we get the opportunity. This was an opportunity to play them on the big stage.”

And like familiar opponents must do, West Catholic changed some things up – catching the Maroons off guard with arguably the play of the game. 

With the score tied 7-7 late in the third quarter and the teams matching each other stop for stop, Rohn called a play no one but the officials expected – and only because he told them about it before the game so they were prepared when he sprung it.

“Lou Lou,” named after Rohn’s mother – who died 25 years ago when Rohn was a high school player at Muskegon Orchard View – involves tight end Bryce Witham making like he’s leaving the field with the rest of the offense while his teammates line up for a field goal attempt. But Witham stopped just short of the sideline, and at the snap took off uncovered for the end zone as junior kicker Travis Hoving lofted a 30-yard pass his way. 

Hoving had been the back-up quarterback on the freshman team two years ago, and Witham had no problem reeling in the toss to put West Catholic up 14-7 with 3:26 to go in the third quarter.

“The idea is to just blend in with the rest of the team standing on the sidelines. Luckily, no one noticed me,” Witham said. 

“We are going to be prepared for each other, so you need something like that,” Rohn added. “We’ve dropped (the ball) a few times in practice. We’ve overthrown it a few times. So everyone on the sidelines was holding their breaths.”

That go-ahead score didn’t decide the game, but it certainly set a direction for the final 15 minutes. 

West Catholic scored twice over the next six, and its defense continued to lock down one of the state’s most productive offenses of this season. 

A key to Menominee’s single wing attack is being able to get around the edge of the line and then upfield. Falcons senior linebacker Max Boorsma played on his past experience against Menominee to make sure that didn’t happen much Saturday, tying for the team lead with nine tackles as the Maroons ran for only 189 yards. 

Junior defensive back Jason McDonough also had eight tackles as the Falcons caused or capitalized on two interceptions, a fumble and three turnovers on downs.

On offense, junior quarterback Travis Russell ran for 133 yards and a touchdown and threw for 176 yards and two scores. Senior Andy Corey added another 84 yards rushing. The Falcons gained 463 yards total and had only one turnover. 

“Their offensive line was really big and strong, … and Corey is a tough kid with a great heart. He proved that last year in the Semifinal game we lost to them,” Menominee senior defensive tackle Mason Kewley said. “We played good enough to points, but other points we didn’t and they took advantage of those points.”

Senior James Brown did gain 102 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground for the Maroons, and junior Justin Brilinski was a standout on both sides of the ball with 71 yards and a touchdown rushing and 158 yards passing as the team’s quarterback/tailback hybrid, plus 10 tackles from his defensive end spot. 

Junior defensive tackle Brandon Chouinard also had 10 tackles.

“We have no excuse. Last week in the (Superior) Dome against Oakridge we were almost flawless and a half, but we knew we were in for a battle today,” Menominee coach Joe Noha said. “The bottom line was they executed well. We knew what they were going to run, and they ran exactly what we prepared our kids to (stop). But they just made plays when they had to.”

Click for a full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Grand Rapids West Catholic players celebrate their first MHSAA championship since 2010. (Middle) Three Falcons wrap up a Menominee ball carrier Saturday. (Click to see more from Terry McNamara Photography.)