Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Eriksen, Clarkston Finish 'Dream' Run

November 30, 2013

By Bill Khan
Special to Second Half

DETROIT — Ian Eriksen's senior season was slipping away.

And so was his lifelong dream.

Eriksen and his football-playing buddies in Clarkston talked about earning an MHSAA championship back when they were in elementary school and winning the Super Bowl of the Northern Youth Football League in Oakland County.

But after rushing for 2,167 yards and 33 touchdowns as a junior, Eriksen came into his senior year with Achilles and ankle injuries, then underwent arthroscopic surgery for a partially torn meniscus in his right knee on Sept. 19.

Four Friday nights passed with Eriksen in street clothes, unsure of when — or if — he'd ever rejoin his teammates in pursuit of their shared dream.

"That was really tough, because I've never been injured that seriously," Eriksen said. "It could've been a lot worse. I tried to be positive. All you can do is be positive rather than mope over it."

One positive out of the situation may be that Eriksen was fresh enough by the end of the playoffs to take on a heavy workload and help carry the Wolves to their first MHSAA football title.

Eriksen ran 32 times for 237 yards and three touchdowns in Clarkston's 32-14 victory over perennial power Detroit Catholic Central in the MHSAA Division 1 championship game Saturday at Ford Field.

He also had a 30-yard catch to extend Clarkston's first touchdown drive, and a sack. In Clarkston's last two games, Eriksen ran 76 times for 592 yards and nine touchdowns.

"He gave us a lot of problems," said veteran Catholic Central coach Tom Mach, who has built a dynasty with the power-running game. "He was a very good running back. He would be a good running back in our program. We would've loved to have him. We had a lot of trouble tackling him. He got the extra yard and put in the extra effort.

“They kept the ball away from us, getting those first downs, getting those first downs, getting those first downs. That's frustrating on a team, especially when you do get the ball when you're a ball-control offense like us."

Bringing Clarkston its first MHSAA championship was the fulfillment of a dream for Eriksen and his teammates after the program reached three Semifinals and made the postseason 16 times under 27-year coach Kurt Richardson.

"In Little League, there's a Super Bowl," Eriksen said. "We won the Super Bowl together in 2006 when we were in fourth and fifth grade. The next thing we started talking about was winning a high school championship if we could do it. We knew we could."

Eriksen and some of the players who delivered that championship were in the stands at Troy Athens four years ago when Clarkston lost by two points in a Semifinal to Sterling Heights Stevenson.

"I remember when that happened," Eriksen said. "Everyone in the community was just so upset about that. Me and the other guys were like, 'That's not going to happen to us when we get there.'" 

Clarkston made Catholic Central settle for a third straight runner-up finish by stealing a page from the Shamrocks' script.

Led by Eriksen and an outstanding offensive line, the Wolves ground out 288 yards on 45 carries. They had a 27:58 to 20:02 advantage in time of possession. 

"The offensive line doesn't get enough credit," Richardson said. "They deserve it for this one."

After a punt and interception ended Clarkston's first two drives, the Wolves scored touchdowns on their next five possessions. 

Both teams had promising drives end with interceptions deep in the opponent's territory before Clarkston broke through for the game's first score with 13 seconds left in the first half.

Converting three times on third down and once on fourth, Clarkston moved 91 yards in 17 plays, taking 6:36 off the clock, before D.J. Zezula hit Shane Holler with a 15-yard touchdown pass on a post route. The extra point failed. 

The key play on the drive was a 30-yard pass to Eriksen on third-and-12 from Clarkston's 15-yard line.

"We knew we had to score, because we got the ball to start the second half," Zezula said. "It was 0-0 and we knew we had to get up on CC. They brought in an extra (defensive back). The play-action with Ian helps me out a lot with time and the O-line helps me a lot with time. We knew the play-action would work." 

Catholic Central's best drive of the first half came following the opening kickoff. The Shamrocks marched to the Clarkston 24 before Tim Cason intercepted a pass, only the second pick thrown by Catholic Central all season.

Jack Van Acker made two big plays to keep Clarkston out of the end zone on the Wolves' second possession. First, he made a touchdown-saving tackle on a 35-yard run by Eriksen to the Shamrocks' 10-yard line. Then, two plays later, he picked off a pass in the end zone after Clarkston moved to the 6. 

A 63-yard punt by Zach Bock pinned Clarkston at its own 9-yard line with 6:49 left in the second quarter before the Wolves drove for the only touchdown of the first half. Clarkston's average starting field position on three first-half possessions was its own 10.

Armed with a lead and momentum, Clarkston took the opening kickoff of the second half and marched 80 yards in eight plays, taking a 12-0 lead on a 37-yard run by Eriksen with 8:18 left in the third quarter. 

The lead reached 18-0 on a 1-yard run by Eriksen with 3:59 left in the third.

Catholic Central got on the board when Dylan Roney scored on a 2-yard run with 45 seconds left in the third quarter, cutting Clarkston's lead to 18-7. 

The Wolves responded with a seven-play, 71-yard drive that ended on a 47-yard pass from Zezula to Caine Watlington with 8:35 left in the game.

The Shamrocks scored again on a 48-yard pass from Sean Birney to Alexander Bock with 5:46 left, but Clarkston again had an answer, with Eriksen scoring on a 12-yard run to cap the scoring with 4:06 left.

Zezula was 10 for 15 for 154 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Birney was 13 for 23 for 166 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 

Clarkston won its final 13 games after a season-opening loss to Rochester Adams, a loss the Wolves avenged in the playoffs.

"A lot of these kids have been playing together since fifth grade," Richardson said. "They've played Chiefs together, so they've come up through the junior ranks. We all felt this could be a special season. We had some issues at the start. We talked to the kids at the time about turning a negative into a positive. You're going to get slapped in the face in life. We got slapped in the face in the first game. They learned from it. It was a huge coming-together point for us as a team." 

Catholic Central (11-3) became the third team to finish runner-up three straight years. Utica Eisenhower was the Division 1 runner-up from 1999-2001 and Crystal Falls Forest Park was the Division 8 runner-up from 2004-06.

The Shamrocks' 2012 runner-up team was led defensively by sophomore middle linebacker David Widzinski, who had a game-high 15 tackles. Less than two weeks later, he died in his sleep. 

Tributes to Widzinski were visible at Ford Field. Catholic Central's uniforms had a patch with his No. 33 inside a shamrock. In the student section, some students wore white and formed a 33 within a field of blue shirts worn by the others. Widzinski's jersey hung on the wall on the Catholic Central sideline.

"We brought up David a lot," Mach said. "He was a force behind our team all year long. Every day after practice, we would say a prayer for him and the people in our community who are suffering. It was a real learning experience for our kids to put something bigger than themselves in place of winning and losing." 

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Clarkston players trade high fives with fans as they march off the Ford Field turf with their first MHSAA championship trophy. (Middle) Clarkston running back Ian Eriksen runs through the reaching arms of Detroit Catholic Central defenders Saturday. (Click to see more from Terry McNamara Photography.)