Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
'Mighty' Forest Park Rides Overpowering Start to 5th Finals Championship
By
Jason Juno
Special for MHSAA.com
November 23, 2024
MARQUETTE — The Crystal Falls Forest Park tradition continues.
The Trojans won their fifth MHSAA Finals championship in their 15th title game appearance 42-20 over Morrice on Saturday in the 8-player Division 2 contest at the Superior Dome.
Forest Park (12-1) took advantage of two Morrice fumbles to take a 28-0 lead into halftime. The Orioles came alive in the second half, but they couldn’t overcome such a start.
It was the second 8-player title for Forest Park with the first coming in 2017, and the first for coach Brian Fabbri, who started as a lineman in two 11-player championship games (2004 and 2005) for the Trojans.
He was thrilled to help keep the tradition alive.
“I absolutely love it,” Fabbri said. “I’m blessed to be able to have my name up there with the Mettlachs, Santillis, Graffs. It’s unbelievable.”
Dick Mettlach led Forest Park to back-to-back titles in 1975 and 1976. Bill Santilli took Forest Park to seven title games and won the 2007 championship. Dave Graff was the head coach of the 2017 champion.
“We’re the fifth one to win it; it just feels awesome,” said Forest Park senior Kevin Giuliani, who at 6-foot-5 and 270 pounds was named the Upper Peninsula’s top lineman by media vote recently.
Forest Park’s first-half dominance proved to be the difference in this championship clincher.
The Trojans got the ball first and capped an 11-play, 53-yard drive with a four-yard touchdown run by senior Grayson Sundell midway through the first quarter.
Forest Park’s Noah Starr recovered an onside kick on the ensuing kickoff, but Morrice came up with a big stop on fourth down in the red zone.
Any momentum from that evaporated quickly. The Orioles went three-and-out in their first offensive possession of the game, and Forest Park doubled its lead on the first play after getting the ball back. Sophomore running back Dax Huuki went 58 yards for a touchdown and Dietrich Rasner, who made all six extra points he tried in the game, made it 14-0 two minutes into the second quarter.
Morrice started its next possession with good field position at midfield but fumbled on the second play, and Nik Stephens recovered it at the Forest Park 45. It took the Trojans eight plays to score, and it was Stephens with the eight-yard run to paydirt for a 21-0 advantage.
The Orioles coughed it up again, this time on the third play of their next possession, with Vic Giuliani recovering it.
Huuki scored his second touchdown of the day, a four-yard rush with 10 seconds left in the half. It was another methodical drive of eight plays to go 50 yards. Forest Park led 28-0 at the half.
“Getting that quick score before half was huge for us,” Fabbri said.
The Trojans ended the half with 184 rushing yards on 33 carries. Morrice had only 11 offensive plays the whole half, thanks in part to their turnovers.
That changed during the second half – just not enough to put the game in any serious doubt.
Morrice (11-2) picked up its first first down during the first possession of the second half, and got its first big play, a 32-yard run by Joel Fisher that set the Orioles up at the Forest Park 5. Two plays later, he ran in a score and the lead was down to 28-6. Fisher led Morrice with 99 yards rushing on 12 carries.
The Trojans added a third-quarter touchdown of their own as Stephens ran five yards for a score on the ensuing possession to make it 35-6. Morrice’s Wyatt Cartier ran one yard for a touchdown in the early stages of the fourth quarter, and Fisher returned a punt 85 yards for a TD with 5:30 left in the game, making it 35-20.
“I knew they were a good team. We knew it was coming,” Fabbri said. “It was only a matter of time, and it happened. We had enough cushion there. We made enough big plays at the end.”
The last came a minute later, when Forest Park scored on a 49-yard rush by Stephens, his third touchdown of the day — half of his carries went for scores — and the Trojans were celebrating a championship soon after.
Morrice coach Kendall Crockett said he was proud of his team for fighting the entire game. The Orioles obviously competed much better during the second half as they accumulated 155 of their 194 total yards.
“We hung onto the ball, first of all. That was kind of a big deal for us,” he said. “... As physical as they were in that first half, I thought that we really fought back in the second half, didn’t quit and kept playing ball.”
That physical play has been a staple of Forest Park football since their first state title. Forest Park ran for 184 yards in the first half and finished with 291 on 47 carries — Huuki led with 136 yards on 19 carries. Fullback Trent Kannich ran for fewer yards, 68, but he was a factor as well as Crockett pointed out how hard he hit.
“(Huuki’s) a sophomore, but he runs like a senior,” Fabbri said. “He’s battle-tested. He stepped up when he had to and made some plays.”
Huuki said Morrice was a physical team as well, but Forest Park was determined to go home with a win.
“That was just put into our head going into this week — the most physical team with the most grit, and the mightiest team’s going to win,” he said. “So we just came in wanting it all.”
The Trojans did it in front of a huge sea of Forest Park fans, who chanted, “U.P. Power!” when it became certain the Trojans were going to win late in the fourth quarter.
“It doesn’t seem real,” Kevin Giuliani said. “I’m just so happy. Words can’t explain what I feel like right now. I feel like I’m on top of the world right now.”
PHOTOS (Top) Crystal Falls Forest Park players swarm coach Brian Fabbri (holding trophy) in celebration Saturday at the Superior Dome. (Middle) Forest Park’s Kevin Giuliani and Brody Starr (5) bring down an Orioles ball carrier. (Below) Morrice’s Joel Fisher (2) breaks away from the Forest Park defense for a long second-half touchdown run. (Photos by Cara Kamps. Click for more.)