Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review
September 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Fall officially is upon us. And so is the home stretch of another MHSAA football regular season.
Four weeks remain before the playoffs begin, and that allows us to crunch some numbers all 596 11-player teams surely are following with interest.
So far, one team has qualified for the postseason. Another 73 can do so with a victory this week.
And that's only part of the excitement, as many still have chances at league championships hanging in the balance.
Many are mentioned below in this week's Drive for Detroit report.
Greater Detroit
Livonia Churchill 43, Canton 40
Churchill took a major stride toward its first league title since 1979. Although the teams combined for nearly 1,000 yards in total offense, the Chargers made a last stand to improve to 5-0 and 3-0 in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association South. For Canton, it’s been some tough luck – its two losses are by a combined four points. Click to read more from Mlive Detroit.
Also noted:
Orchard Lake St. Mary 13, Detroit Cass Tech 6 – Cass Tech has appeared invincible, but this victory by the reigning MHSAA Division 3 champion over the reigning champ in Division 1 re-opens the debate over the best in Michigan overall this fall.
Detroit University Prep 28, Warren Michigan Collegiate 26 – After winning one game in the Charter School Conference in 2011, University Prep is one win from clinching at least a share of the title and also equaling its most ever.
Oak Park 20, Farmington 15 – At 5-0, Oak Park has won its most games since 2007 and is off to its best start since 1998.
Milan 35, Monroe St. Mary Catholic 20 – The Big Reds are in the midst of one of the biggest turnarounds in the state this fall, now 5-0 after going 1-8 in 2011 and losing their last four to Monroe St. Mary.
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 43, East Grand Rapids 17
This was played in a baseball stadium, Fifth Third Ballpark, but hardly looked like a baseball game on the scoreboard. Forest Hills Central scored all 43 points in the first half and continued on what is shaping up as a special season despite the competition in the ultra strong O-K White. The Rangers improved to 4-1 and had lost seven straight to the Pioneers dating back to 2001. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids Christian 38, Caledonia 21 – This is another one that dictates some order in the O-K White, with both of these teams still 4-1 despite the Eagles’ one-game league advantage.
Comstock Park 38, Belding 31 – The Panthers outlasted the Redskins to remain one of only two 2-0 teams atop the O-K Blue.
Montague 9, Whitehall 3 – Make that six straight wins for Montague in the battle for the “Bell” that has raged more than a century.
Muskegon Mona Shores 41, Grand Rapids Union 6 – Every week seems to bring another accomplishment for the Sailors, who are 4-1 for the first time since 1989.
Upper Peninsula
Kingsford 14, Menominee 13
Overlooked accidentally in Friday’s pregame report, this ended up as the best this weekend in the entire peninsula. Both entered 4-0 after the first week of Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference play and with little to spare. The league again looks like a gauntlet after three of five teams made the playoffs in 2011 and a fourth finished 5-4. Click to read more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Marquette 35, Gladstone 14 – Also in the GNUPC, this keeps Marquette just a game back of the co-leaders and two from making the playoffs.
Rapid River 60, Engadine 40 – Rapid River was one of three undefeated teams atop the Bridge 8-Man Football Alliance heading into the week; now there are two.
Cedarville 42, Eben Junction Superior Central 12 – These were the other two B8FA teams that came in 4-0; Cedarville continues to look like possibly the best team in all of 8-player this fall.
Iron Mountain North Dickinson 40, Bark River-Harris 0 – The Nordics became the first team to earn an MHSAA playoff berth; they are 5-0 playing only eight regular-season games this fall.
Southwest and Border
Edwardsburg 49, Three Rivers 41
These Wolverine B Conference South foes seem to be tailor-made for the rain that fell all over the Lower Peninsula on Friday. On a night of offensive firepower, Edwardsburg supplied a little bit more by running for 485 yards and seven touchdowns. The win sets up the Eddies as Dowagiac’s biggest competition for the league title. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Watervliet 41, Hartford 29 – The separation has begun in the Southwestern Athletic Conference South, and Watervliet moved to 5-0 overall.
Paw Paw 24, Vicksburg 13 – The Redskins also moved to 5-0 overall and are tied with Plainwell now atop the Wolverine B Conference North.
Portage Central 33, St. Joseph 23 – The best of the strong Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West keep beating up on each other, with the Mustangs now just a game behind the leaders.
Stevensville Lakeshore 37, Niles 21 – Similar story from this SMAC West game, but Lakeshore is sharing first place with Mattawan, a win ahead of Central and Portage Northern.
Lower Up North
Traverse City Central 49, West Branch Ogemaw Heights 21
There’s plenty to tout with the surging Trojans. They’re 4-1, tying last season’s win total. They’re tied with crosstown rival Traverse City West atop the Big North Conference. They’re off to their best start since 1991, when the schools were still combined. And they’ve got the Titans next in arguably the biggest game of this rivalry since they split in 1997. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record Eagle.
Also noted:
Traverse City West 40, Cadillac 11 – The Titans couldn’t afford a trip-up heading into this week’s game with Central that could eventually be the decider in the Big North Conference.
Traverse City Christian 60, Big Rapids Crossroads 48 – These teams have only one win combined between them, but Christian set a school record for points and Crossroads scored its third-most ever.
Kingsley 12, Frankfort 6 – After a four-point loss to Frankfort in 2011, the Stags turned the tables to keep atop the Northwest Conference.
Boyne City 29, Traverse City St. Francis 13 – The Ramblers had lost 10 straight to St. Francis, including 28-0 in 2011.
Thumb and Bay
Lapeer West 13, Linden 10
A 23-yard field goal with five seconds to play earned Lapeer West coach Mike Smith his 100th win and handed Linden its first loss of the season. Both Flint Metro League teams have a loss and are chasing first-place Swartz Creek. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Freeland 16, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 – Another week, another Tri-Valley Conference Central re-mix at the top; now it’s Hemlock in first with these two tied for second.
Midland 41, Mount Pleasant 34 – The Chemics keep churning through close ones; they improved to 5-0 with their third win of seven or fewer points this fall.
Reese 23, Vassar 0 – This wasn’t as close as billed, perhaps, but Reese now is the sure frontrunner (again) in the Greater Thumb Conference West.
Richmond 35, Armada 33 – While Croswell-Lexington has a firm hold on first in the Blue Water Area Conference, five more teams (these two included) are either 3-2 or 2-3 overall and working toward that magic number of six wins.
Mid-Michigan
Charlotte 35, Mason 3
On one hand, it was a little early to put so much pressure on a young Mason team that indeed started 4-0, but against opponents that have combined for only two wins so far. On the other hand, few in mid-Michigan gave Charlotte much of a chance in this one – and the Orioles no doubt took that to heart. Charlotte is 3-2 and looks good to win at least three more and earn its first playoff berth since 2008. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Holt 21, East Lansing 14 – Despite a couple of tough losses to elite teams, Holt isn’t going away; the Rams are 3-2 and look good to double that win total after handing the Trojans their first loss this fall.
Springport 26, Union City 25 – Three losses by a combined 21 points led to a tough start this fall for the Spartans, but this helps after they lost to Union City 47-8 in 2011.
DeWitt 34, St. Johns 20 – The Panthers look like they’ve found another quarterback in Jacob Heath, and need just one more win in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red for a share of the title.
Portland 40, Williamston 7 – This sets up the CAAC White as a two-team race between the Raiders and Lansing Catholic.
Trophy Games
Each week, the MHSAA highlights trophy games around the state. Here's another to go with the Montague/Whitehall battle for "The Bell" mentioned above.
- Iosco County News-Herald and Oscoda Press (News-Press) Trophy: Oscoda hosted Tawas in this 58th meeting dating back to 1954, and won its seventh straight of the series. Final: Oscoda 22, Tawas 18.
PHOTO: Orchard Lake St. Mary junior fullback Jeff Robinson rumbles through the Detroit Cass Tech defensive during Friday's win by the Eaglets. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)