Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Hanover-Horton Off to Record-Setting Start, with More Program 1sts Possible
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
October 15, 2024
Hanover-Horton’s football team is in uncharted territory.
The Comets had never won a playoff game, never won an overall Cascades Conference championship and never started the season with seven straight victories before this fall.
One of those milestones was reached Friday when Hanover-Horton shut out Addison 42-0 for its seventh consecutive victory. The other two are still possible.
“There are a lot of firsts for everybody here,” third-year Comets head coach David Messer said. “Our plan is to just keep it one play at a time.”
Hanover-Horton’s best previous start to a season was 4-0.
“When we got to 5-0, the kids celebrated that,” Messer said. “We talked about getting to 5-0. But I told them we are only going to celebrate over the weekend because Monday we had to get back to work.”
Hanover-Horton went 2-7 last season and 3-6 the year before. The last time the school won seven games in a season was 2014 when they went 8-2, setting a school record for victories that the Comets can equal against Brooklyn Columbia Central on Senior Night this Friday.
“We aren’t looking past that game,” Messer said.
The Addison win also clinched a share of the league's West division title, which the Comets can claim outright Friday. The West and East divisions winners will play for the overall Cascades Conference championship in Week 9.
The Hanover-Horton seniors are on cloud nine about this football season, guaranteed to be the first winning one for the Comets since that 2014 campaign.
“They are on top of the world, but they are not strutting down the hallways or anything,” Messer said. “They are keeping everything in perspective.”
Hanover-Horton has eight seniors. Luke Soper is the quarterback and a two-way starter. Gavin Berkeypile is a physical player who has a nose for the ball. Center Bryant Hamisfar is a captain and makes the calls for the offensive line. Jackson Johnson and Jack Wooster are split ends on offense who have turned into excellent blockers, and Wyatt Ashworth has developed into a solid two-way starter.
The Comets defense is led by junior Adam Ley, a third-year starter despite being only a junior.
“We brought him up as a freshman out of necessity,” Messer said. “He’s really become a great football player. The play of our defensive front has been so strong, it has helped Adam be able to make a lot of tackles from his linebacker spot. Last year he had offensive linemen in his face every play. This year, he’s able to fill the gaps and make plays.”
Ley made 19 tackles last week against Addison during Hanover-Horton’s third consecutive shutout and fourth of the season, also a school record.
On offense, the Comets already have set the single-season school scoring record. Soper directs an offense that has been heavy on the run through the first seven games with multiple backs, including freshman Austyn Hocter.
“We are still finding our way on offense,” Messer said. “We try to be a little more balanced. Luke is a heck of a quarterback who has a really good arm. We want to find ways to be more balanced.”
The offense is averaging 43 points a game, while the defense is allowing just 8.4.
“I don’t really look at how many points we score or give up,” Messer said. “I will look at those kinds of things after the season when we have a chance to sit down and assess how things went. We are really focused on the next play, next play.”
Messer comes from a football background rooted in success.
“I’m a Hudson guy through and through,” Messer said. “I was born in Hudson, played football at Hudson and coached for 15 years at Hudson.”
He coached for several years under Hall of Fame coach Chris Luma, and coached defense with current Hudson head coach Dan Rogers.
“Every step of the way, I’ve had some great coaches to help me,” Messer said. “Chris was a tremendous mentor. I know I can still pick up the phone at any time and give him a call.”
One of the first things Messer did at Hanover-Horton was work on the physical strength of the team.
“When I first got here, it was obvious to me that we weren’t a very physical football team,” he said. “The weight room part of it did not come quickly. I’ve had old-timers here tell me they’ve never had so many kids in the weight room. That was one of the things we needed to turn around.”
There already have been several big wins this season for the Comets, but close ones over Michigan Center (21-20) and Jonesville (21-18) made Messer particularly proud.
“We’ve had some moments this year where we reverted to the Hanover-Horton of old, but I’m so proud of the guys to overcome that and stay focused,” Messer said. “That third quarter against Jonesville things weren’t going our way, but we held on. Our goal is to just keep it one play, one drive at a time and make this a historic season.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS (Top) From left, Hanover-Horton’s Luke Soper (5), Jack Wooster (11), Braden Cogan (71) and Bryan Hamisfar (77) take the field together arm-in-arm. (Middle) Comets coach David Messer talks things over with his players. (Top photo courtesy of the Hanover-Horton athletic department; middle photo courtesy of Karson Durocher/JTV.)