Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 7 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2024

MI Student Aid

There are only three weeks left in the 2024 football regular season. But there's still plenty of time to shake things up. 

Several newly-crowned league champions could celebrate tonight or Saturday – but as we detail below, scenarios exist in a number of leagues where one, two or three teams are still in the title mix.

And as we look farther toward the MHSAA Playoffs, there's good news as well (or bad, depending on how your favorite team is sitting). Of last year's field of 288 playoff teams, 27 were not among the top 32 (11-player) or 16 (8-player) in their respective divisions heading into Week 7. That number was consistent with 2022, when 25 eventual playoff teams were outside the field with three weeks to play.

There were 17 games Thursday night, including a matchup for first in the Lakes Valley Conference between co-leaders Milford and Walled Lake Western (which Western won 37-0) and a decider in the Oakland Activities Association Red (where Oxford claimed a title share with a 38-14 win over West Bloomfield). All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.

Bay & Thumb

Fenton (6-0) at Flushing (5-1) WATCH

Fenton will be playing to finish off a sixth-straight Flint Metro League divisional championship after clinching a share of the Stripes title last week. Rival Flushing has a chance to claim a piece of a championship for the first time since sharing the formerly one-division Metro title in 2018 – a season which also featured its most recent win over the Tigers. The Raiders’ only loss this fall was to Linden, by a point in Week 4, and Linden also is tied for second place, would gain a title share with a Flushing win, and fell to Fenton by just three points last week.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY North Branch (5-1) at Armada (5-1) WATCH, Harbor Beach (6-0) at Reese (4-2) WATCH, Marysville (5-1) at St. Clair (5-1), Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (4-2) at Millington (5-0) WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Macomb Dakota (6-0) at Utica Eisenhower (5-1) WATCH

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley’s stunning win last week over Eisenhower may have blunted some of the buzz that would have come with this matchup – but could also fire up the Eagles even more. They’ll claim a share of the Macomb Area Conference Red title with a win after Dakota guaranteed a share last week thanks to that Eisenhower loss. The Eagles won last year’s meeting with the Cougars 31-0, but Dakota has given up only 52 points total over six games this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (5-1) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (6-0) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (4-2) at Warren Mott (5-1), Howell (6-0) at Novi (5-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Romulus Summit Academy North (5-0) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (5-1)

Mid-Michigan

Saginaw Nouvel Catholic Central (6-0) at Ithaca (6-0) WATCH

Nouvel is enjoying its best start since finishing Division 8 runner-up in 2017 and already has surpassed last season’s four wins. Tonight provides an opportunity to take another step as the Panthers have lost all five matchups with Ithaca since joining the Tri-Valley Conference in 2018. The winner of this one clinches the TVC Blue title outright – and the Yellowjackets have a pair of impressive streaks on the line as well. They’ve won 19 straight league games going back to 2020 and 15 consecutive league championships.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY DeWitt (6-0) at Grand Ledge (4-2) WATCH, Chesaning (6-0) at Ovid-Elsie (6-0) WATCH, Ionia (4-2) at Lansing Catholic (4-2), East Lansing (3-3) at Lansing Everett (5-1) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Marquette (5-1) at Petoskey (6-0) WATCH

The winner earns a share of the Big North Conference title. Petoskey is seeking its first since 2011, and a victory tonight also would guarantee its best record since 2015. Marquette, meanwhile, is in its second season in the BNC and finished second a year ago. Last season’s pair of games against Marquette may have set the stage for this Petoskey run; the Northmen lost 21-20 in Week 8 but claimed the rematch 26-7 in a playoff opener. Scoring could be limited this time; aside from a Week 4 loss to Lowell, the Sentinels have given up seven points total this fall, while Petoskey is allowing just 9.2 per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Evart (4-2) at McBain (6-0), Cheboygan (3-3) at Kingsley (4-2) WATCH, Charlevoix (4-2) at Mancelona (3-3), Mount Pleasant (4-2) at Traverse City West (3-3) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Union City (6-0) at Springport (6-0) WATCH

The winner claims a share of the Big 8 Conference title, which for Springport would be a first since 2016 and for Union City its third straight. The Chargers have won 17 consecutive league games, in fact, and defeated Springport in four straight including 41-0 last fall. But the Spartans are enjoying their best season since 2018 and after going 0-9 only two years ago. They’ve already avenged 2023 losses to Sand Creek, Stockbridge and Quincy and have scored nearly as many points this fall as the last two years combined.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ida (5-1) at Adrian Madison (4-2) WATCH, Flat Rock (5-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-0), Chelsea (5-1) at Jackson (4-2) WATCH, Traverse City St. Francis (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (5-1) WATCH.

Southwest Corridor

Hastings (6-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-1)

Save for an upset over the next two weeks, this matchup likely will decide the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title. These two have some history with that; Hastings, Harper Creek and Jackson Lumen Christi shared the championship in 2021, and since the Saxons have won the last three and 20 straight league games. The Beavers will hope a much-improved offense averaging 40 points per game can continue surging against a Hastings defense that gave up only 11.5 ppg in league play in 2023 – and has lowered that to 7.3 ppg over four league games this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dowagiac (5-1) at Berrien Springs (3-3) WATCH, Parchment (5-1) at Constantine (5-1), Niles (5-1) at Edwardsburg (4-2) WATCH, Saugatuck (5-1) at Schoolcraft (5-1) WATCH, Portage Central (4-2) at Portage Northern (4-2) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Menominee (6-0) at Negaunee (5-1) WATCH

Menominee is set up for its toughest tests over its final three games of the regular season, as Negaunee, Week 8 opponent Kingsford and Week 9’s Bark River-Harris are a combined 15-3. Negaunee welcomed the Maroons to the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference last year with a 47-20 win and need a repeat performance to have any hope of a West-PAC Copper shared title after losing to Kingsford in Week 4. Menominee’s only losses last season were to Negaunee and Kingsford before reaching the Division 7 championship game, so there’s extra incentive there as well.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (4-2) at Iron Mountain (6-0) WATCH, Ishpeming Westwood (2-4) at Kingsford (6-0) WATCH, Calumet (3-3) at Hancock (1-5). SATURDAY Manistique (3-3) at Gwinn (2-4).

West Michigan

Grand Rapids Northview (6-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1)

Northview’s best season since 2018 would have its best highlight yet with a win tonight that would not only clinch a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black championship but deliver Grand Rapids Catholic Central a rare loss. Catholic Central is facing a second-straight undefeated opponent and handed Holland Christian its first loss last week, 42-18;  the Cougars have lost only one league game over the last eight seasons.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (4-2) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0), Big Rapids (5-1) at Newaygo (5-1), Ravenna (4-2) at North Muskegon (5-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids West Catholic (4-2) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (5-1) WATCH.

8-Player

Gobles (6-0) at Martin (5-0) WATCH

This also is a winner-take-all, for the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Red championship, and with a nice rivalry brewing after Gobles won last season’s regular-season meeting 53-16 but the Clippers won the Regional Final rematch 28-6. Martin is coming off scoring a season-high 70 points and has topped 50 three of the last four games, while Gobles has held its last three opponents (and four total) to single digits and posted its second shutout of the season last week.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Au Gres-Sims (5-1) at Atlanta (5-1) WATCH, Kingston (5-1) at Deckerville (6-0) WATCH, Portland St. Patrick (6-0) at Fulton (5-1) WATCH, Powers North Central (5-1) at Ontonagon (4-2).

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PHOTO Escanaba's Alex Morgan (56) and Keagan Braun (21) converge on Marquette's Chase Niemi (9) as he gets closer to the end zone during the Sentinels' Week 6 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)