Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 3, 2024

If Week 5 could be considered something of a bridge week for several football conferences across the state, this one likely will be the eventual decider as championships are wrapped up over the final month of the regular season. 

MI Student AidSeveral matchups, including three pitting undefeated teams detailed below, have the potential to set off league title celebrations that are almost always the primary goal when teams kick off every season. 

All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.

Bay & Thumb

Almont (5-0) at Armada (5-0) WATCH

Armada has not given up a point in its four Blue Water Area Conference wins, and after opening with a 28-27 victory over a Marine City team that has since averaged 52 points per game. The Tigers will face their toughest offensive challenge since that win over the Mariners, as Almont is averaging nearly 42 points per game – and also giving up just under nine per contest. The last three meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer, with Almont last year’s victor 13-12.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Corunna (5-0) at Goodrich (4-1) WATCH, East Lansing (3-2) at Davison (4-1), Grand Blanc (4-1) at Lapeer (4-1), Marysville (4-1) at Marine City (4-1).

Greater Detroit

Troy (3-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (5-0) WATCH

Seaholm has dominated since moving back into the Oakland Activities Association Blue in 2022, with a combined 22-5 record overall over the last three seasons and eight straight league wins as the Maples pursue a repeat title. They have won three straight over Troy, but the Colts avenged a 2023 loss to Oak Park last week 31-6 and have gotten a few looks at top competition with defeats to powerful Lake Orion and Pontiac Notre Dame Prep.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Clintondale (4-1) at Clawson (3-2) WATCH, Rochester Adams (4-1) at Oxford (3-2) WATCH, Lake Orion (4-1) at West Bloomfield (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (4-1) at Detroit Voyageur College Prep (4-1).

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Fowler (5-0) WATCH

These two began their annual series in 1966, and according to Michigan-Football.com P-W leads it 30-28 – with wins last year (27-14) and eight of the last nine. This could again eventually decide the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title, especially with Fowler already having handed Saranac its lone loss. The Eagles also opened the season by handing Hudson what remains the Tigers’ lone defeat, and P-W opened by dealing North Muskegon what remains its only loss this fall. Neither Fowler nor the Pirates have given up a point since Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pinconning (4-1) at Harrison (5-0) WATCH, Napoleon (3-2) at Leslie (5-0) WATCH, Mason (4-1) at St. Johns (5-0) WATCH, Grand Ledge (4-1) at Lansing Everett (4-1) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Petoskey (5-0) at Cadillac (3-2) WATCH

The next two weeks will make or break Petoskey’s Big North Conference title hopes, and potentially Cadillac’s as well. The Northmen and Marquette lead the league with 3-0 starts, while Cadillac is 3-1, and Petoskey faces Marquette next week – meaning a Cadillac win in this matchup and a Petoskey win over the Sentinels would open up the possibility of a three-team title share (with Escanaba also involved in this mix). The Northmen have given up just 37 points total this fall and defeated Escanaba in Week 3. Cadillac fell to Midland and then Escanaba to open this season, by seven points apiece, before winning three straight.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (4-1) at Cheboygan (3-2) WATCH, East Jordan (3-2) at Mancelona (3-2), Midland (4-1) at Traverse City Central (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Kingsley (3-2) at Benzie Central (2-3) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (5-0) at Riverview (5-0) WATCH

For the second straight week, Riverview is playing in a premier matchup – and thanks to last week’s 52-45 win over previously-undefeated Flat Rock. That’s left these two tied for first in the Huron League and with opposing strengths set to face off. Riverview has topped 35 points in all five of its games and 50 the last three weeks, while SMCC hasn’t given up a point since Week 2 and just 22 total this fall. Also of note, the Falcons follow this weekend with a home game against Flat Rock.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (5-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-1) WATCH, Adrian Madison (4-1) at Hudson (4-1) WATCH, Toledo St. Francis de Sales, Ohio (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (4-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-1) at Parma Western (4-1).

Southwest Corridor

Edwardsburg (4-1) at Paw Paw (5-0) WATCH

The Eddies are bouncing back nicely from last year’s 5-5 finish, and this will be their first opportunity to avenge a 2023 loss – in fact, two – as they fell to Paw Paw 35-0 and then 16-7 in the playoffs last fall. Edwardsburg’s lone loss this season came Week 2, by just seven points, to still-undefeated St. Joseph. Paw Paw’s surge started a year ago and has simply continued, as the Red Wolves opened with solid nonleague wins over Big Rapids and Berrien Springs – and, like Edwardsburg – have yet to be challenged much in three Wolverine Conference games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Constantine (5-0) at Kalamazoo United (4-1), Portage Northern (4-1) at St. Joseph (5-0) WATCH, Bronson (4-1) at Union City (5-0), Lawton (4-1) at Schoolcraft (4-1) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Escanaba (3-2) at Marquette (4-1)

This rivalry is getting a massive boost with Escanaba already guaranteeing its best finish since 2019. Escanaba also will be playing for its first win over Marquette since 2017 and coming off its best back-to-back offensive performances (combining for 107 points) in more than a decade. Marquette has continued to build after finishing 3-6 in 2022 and 5-4 last year, with four shutouts this season and its only stumble in a Saturday game downstate at Lowell.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gwinn (2-3) at Iron Mountain (5-0) WATCH, Negaunee (4-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-3) WATCH, Calumet (2-3) at Houghton (2-3), West Iron County (2-3) at Manistique (2-3) WATCH.

West Michigan

Holland Christian (5-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1)

Holland Christian is another of the best comeback stories in the state so far, with its five wins already the varsity’s most since 2018 and punctuated by last week’s 21-20 triumph over East Grand Rapids. That said, this will clearly be the Maroons’ most massive challenge yet. Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s loss to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep in Week 3 gains context by the week as undefeated NDP rumbles through its schedule.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (3-2) at Caledonia (4-1), Beal City (4-1) at Evart (4-1) WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Reed City (4-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Zeeland West (4-1) WATCH.

8-Player

Bellevue (4-1) at Mendon (5-0) WATCH

While Mendon hasn’t navigated a sub-.500 season since 2006, it’s fair to call this the Hornets’ most powerful start – at least statistically – in some time. The Hornets have absolutely dominated, scoring 54 or more points every game, 60 or more in four, and giving up 34 points total with three shutouts. Their best win likely was 66-14 over Britton Deerfield, which hasn’t lost otherwise. Enter Bellevue, which jumped from 0-9 two years ago to 6-3 last season and sits a three-point loss in Week 2 to Adrian Lenawee Christian from being undefeated as well. The Broncos have given up just 57 points this season and are coming off back-to-back 60-plus scoring performances.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Norway (4-1) at Munising (5-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (5-0) at St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic (4-1), Marion (5-0) at Suttons Bay (4-1) WATCH.

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PHOTO Ishpeming's Grady Gauthier holds onto Indian River Inland Lakes' quarterback Aidan Fenstermaker's leg as he gets ready to dive into the end zone during Inland Lake's Week 5 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)