Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 5 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 30, 2024
We have our first league champions of the 2024 Michigan high school football season. And we have several more who could join them soon.
We highlight many of both below in our discussion of Week 5 and as we moved past the midway point of the regular season. That being the case, you’ll also notice several references to playoff-point average and positioning, a growing theme of note as we continue into the final four weeks before this year’s brackets are selected Oct. 27.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Port Huron Northern 30, Port Huron 23 After an 0-2 start this season, Northern has won all three of its league games and can clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue title against Fraser this week. Lincoln Watkins scored the go-ahead points with 3:26 to play, and Mailk Thompson had two interceptions over the final 2:54 as Northern avenged last season’s 34-0 loss to the Red Hawks (3-2). Click for from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Watch list Saginaw Heritage 10, Lapeer 7 Despite an 0-2 start in Saginaw Valley League Red play, Heritage (3-2) isn’t going away. The Hawks will need major some help to climb back into the league title race, but handing Lapeer (4-1) its first loss was the right start.
On the move Almont 28, Croswell-Lexington 14 This along with Armada’s big win over Yale set up an Almont/Armada matchup this week for first place in the Blue Water Area Conference. Almont (5-0) is the reigning champ and Cros-Lex (3-2) was the runner-up last year. Chesaning 17, Birch Run 9 Chesaning is 5-0 for the first time since its Division 4 championship season of 2001 and will see the other top three teams in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference over the next three weeks after sending Birch Run to 2-3. Grand Blanc 35, Lansing Everett 21 The Bobcats (4-1) continued an impressive surge by handing Everett (4-1) its first loss. Grand Blanc has jumped from No. 21 to No. 10 in Division 1 playoff-point average over the last two weeks.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 31, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 14 Sunday’s Boys Bowl victory put Detroit Catholic Central (5-0) within one more win of clinching a share of the Catholic High School League Central title. DCC jumped out to a 21-0 first-half lead, and Samson Gash scored three times as the Shamrocks ended a three-game losing streak against the Pilots (3-2). Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Watch list Lake Orion 28, Rochester Adams 25 Lake Orion (4-1) impressed with a season-opening win over Northville, lost a tough one to much-improved Oxford in Week 4, but bounced back to stop a charging Adams team (4-1). The Oakland Activities Association Red race remains wide open as the Dragons seek to repeat.
On the move Riverview 52, Flat Rock 45 Riverview (5-0) will face Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central this week for first in the Huron League after downing another former co-leader Flat Rock (4-1) with a go-ahead touchdown during the final seconds. Warren Fitzgerald 18, Madison Heights Lamphere 7 Fitzgerald started this season 0-2 but can clinch a share of the MAC Gold title this week after handing a first loss to Lamphere (4-1), which entered the game atop the statewide Division 4 playoff-point average list. Birmingham Groves 28, Harper Woods 12 Groves (5-0) clinched a share of the Oakland Activities Association White title after finishing second a year ago, when league opponents Harper Woods and Southfield Arts & Technology both went on to win MHSAA Finals championships.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER DeWitt 42, East Lansing 35 Although this was only their second league game, the high-scoring Panthers (5-0) put themselves in position to take back the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title for the first time since 2021 and also moved into the top spot for statewide Division 3 playoff-point average. Trav Moore scored three times, and the Panthers made a last-minute defensive stand as DeWitt defeated reigning league champ East Lansing (3-2) in the teams’ third-straight meeting decided by seven points or fewer. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Leslie 45, Manchester 28 It’s still early in the Cascades Conference East schedule as well, but Leslie stands alone on top after handing Manchester (4-1) its first defeat. The Blackhawks finished 4-5 and fifth in the league a year ago.
On the move Portland 35, Lansing Catholic 14 The two-time reigning champ Raiders (5-0) extended their CAAC White winning streak to 17 as they moved into first place alone thanks to a third-straight victory over the Cougars (3-2). Howell 27, Northville 12 The Highlanders (5-0) already have outdone their finishes from the last two seasons and are tied for first in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after this win over reigning champion Northville (2-3). Ovid-Elsie 42, Montrose 7 The Marauders (5-0) kept pace with Chesaning in the MMAC and put Montrose a game back in avenging last year’s 29-22 loss to the Rams (3-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 49, Kingsley 20 As stated in Friday’s preview, the winner of this showdown would emerge as the likely favorite in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends, and St. Francis (4-1) can now clinch a share of the title this week at Cheboygan. The Gladiators broke away after taking a 22-14 lead into halftime to avenge a 44-21 loss to the Stags (3-2) from last season. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 41, Clare 34 In its first season in the Jack Pine Conference, Ogemaw Heights (5-0) edged an annual favorite to pull within a win of clinching a share of the JPC Division 1 title. Ogemaw moved past Clare (4-1) with the go-ahead score with 1:08 to play.
On the move Maple City Glen Lake 7, East Jordan 6 Glen Lake (4-1) can clinch a share of the NMFL Legacy title this week after handing East Jordan (3-2) its second one-score loss in as many weeks. Traverse City Central 21, Midland Dow 7 Central (2-3) pulled Dow (2-3) out of the shared lead in the SVL Blue and also moved up substantially in Division 2 playoff-point average after three straight losses to start this month. Charlevoix 34, Benzie Central 14 Charlevoix (3-2) is one win from clinching the NMFL Leaders championship for the second-straight season after defeating last year’s league runner-up Benzie (2-3).
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Petersburg Summerfield 20, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 14 The final Tri-County Conference championship in football may be headed to Summerfield (4-1), which can clinch a share of its eighth championship in this league either this week (if Whiteford defeats Erie Mason) or next (with a win over Erie Mason) after its first win over Whiteford (2-3) since their 2020 District Final. The Bulldogs scored the only touchdown of the second half and made an impressive defensive stand, especially considering Whiteford had scored at least 42 points every meeting during a four-game winning streak in the rivalry. Click for more from the Monroe News.
Summerfield 🏈 spoiled Whiteford's Homecoming festivities by posting a 20-14 triumph. pic.twitter.com/BQWtQrwLsD
— BCSN (@BCSNsports) September 29, 2024
Watch list Ypsilanti Community 27, Jackson 20 Ypsilanti Community (2-3) tied its win total from last season and moved into the No. 32 spot on the Division 3 playoff-point average list with its first win over Jackson since the Vikings (4-1) joined the Southeastern Conference in 2018. The Grizzlies also have losses by only five and one point as they seek their first winning season since 2014.
On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 32, Milan 0 As noted above, SMCC (5-0) will face Riverview this week for first in the Huron League, and coming off its third-straight shutout. Hudson 44, Blissfield 6 After opening this season with a loss, Hudson (4-1) continues to roll and sits tied for Clinton atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association. Napoleon 30, Grass Lake 26 The reigning champion in the Cascades Conference East, Napoleon (3-2) bounced back from a Week 4 loss and could make the standings messy this week against leader Leslie and with Grass Lake (3-2) also in the mix still as well.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Parchment 32, South Haven 0 With its third shutout of the season, Parchment (4-1) advanced its best start since 2017 and avenged last year’s 52-20 loss to South Haven (2-3). The Panthers amassed nearly 500 yards of offense and are one of three teams tied for first early in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Watch list Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 6, Battle Creek Central 0 The Knights (3-2) already have guaranteed their best finish since 2012 and after winning a combined three games over the last four seasons. They returned to the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference this fall after four seasons as an independent.
On the move Portage Central 7, Mattawan 0 Portage Central (3-2) remains one of three teams without a league loss early in the SMAC East, despite a significant push from the Wildcats (2-3). Union City 35, Sand Creek 14 Union City (5-0) joins Bronson and Springport atop the Big 8 Conference standings and plays them back-to-back, respectively, over the next two weeks. Dowagiac 63, Benton Harbor 6 After a few rough seasons to start this decade, Dowagiac is 4-1 for the second season in a row – and seeking to improve on last fall’s 5-4 finish.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Escanaba 62, Grayling 21 With its highest-scoring game since 2009, Escanaba (3-2) guaranteed its best finish since 2019 after winning two games apiece the last two seasons. All three Escanaba victories this fall have avenged losses from a year ago; Grayling won last season’s meeting 37-30. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Watch list West Iron County 24, Gwinn 16 (2 OT) West Iron had a rough go over the last three seasons, winning just one game total. But in avenging two losses to Gwinn (2-3) from a year ago, the Wykons (2-3) have guaranteed their best finish since 2020.
On the move Iron Mountain 63, L’Anse 8 The Mountaineers (5-0) clinched a share of the Western Peninsula Activities Conference Iron championship and ran their regular-season winning streak to 22. Ishpeming Westwood 42, Gladstone 15 The Patriots (2-3) have doubled their win total from a year ago in avenging last year’s 49-8 loss to Gladstone. Kingsford 14, Calumet 0 The Flivvers (5-0) posted their third shutout in five games but also ran into a strong defensive effort from the Copper Kings (2-3), who held Kingsford to a season low.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Hudsonville Unity Christian 20, Zeeland West 8 These two entered the weekend among 28 undefeated teams statewide, and Unity (5-0) finished the weekend leading an Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold that also includes among six teams three at 4-1 and a fourth at 3-2. Unity scored a season low, but also joined Mona Shores as the only teams to keep the Dux (4-1) to single digits over the last five seasons. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Watch list Jenison 15, Rockford 14 If the season ended today, Jenison (2-3) would be in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 (not counting 2020, when nearly every team qualified because of COVID-19). This will be an unforgettable win from coach Josh Lucas’ first season as it broke a 12-game losing streak to the Rams (3-2) that began in 2006.
On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 34, Grand Rapids South Christian 13 South Christian (4-1) also entered the weekend among the undefeated, but reigning Division 3 champion FHC (4-1) did its part to also shake up the O-K Gold standings. Muskegon Mona Shores 42, Muskegon 27 The Sailors (5-0) ended a five-game losing streak against the Big Reds (1-3) that included regular-season and playoff defeats in 2023. Lowell 28, Cedar Springs 14 The Red Arrows (3-2) were another team to hand out a first loss this week, to the Red Hawks (4-1), and did so for the second consecutive week after delivering Marquette its first defeat as well in Week 4.
8-Player
HEADLINER Burr Oak 60, Waldron 34 After last scoring 60 pints in 2020, Burr Oak (4-1) did so for the third time this fall in handing Waldron (4-1) its first loss. The last time Burr Oak had defeated the Spartans also was in 2020. And keep an eye on this storyline: The Bobcats’ next two opponents are both 1-4, and two more wins would guarantee Burr Oak its best finish since 1974, according to Michigan-Football.com. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.
Watch list Morrice 22, Fulton 0 The Orioles (4-1) bounced back from their first loss with their second shutout of the season, handing a first defeat to the Pirates (4-1) – who were averaging nearly 58 points per game.
On the move Brown City 26, Kingston 16 Brown City supporters may have just become Kingston’s biggest fans outside the Cardinals’ hometown as this Green Devils (4-1) win kept them in the Big Thumb Conference Blue race – as long as Kingston (4-1) can defeat league leader Deckerville in two weeks. Gobles 38, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 8 Gobles (5-0) handed NorthPointe its first in-state loss this season in avenging last year’s defeat by the Mustangs (3-2). Indian River Inland Lakes 30, Ishpeming 22 Inland Lakes (5-0) held on for its closest regular-season victory this fall. Ishpeming (3-2), meanwhile, faced an undefeated opponent for the third-straight week. Britton Deerfield 48, Adrian Lenawee Christian 26 Britton Deerfield (4-1) clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association White championship with its first win over Lenawee Christian since 2014.
MHSAA.com's weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Click to connect with MI Student Aid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Catholic Central’s Samson Gash reaches the end zone during his team’s win over Warren De La Salle Collegiate. (2) DeWitt’s Jadon Bender (11) cuts back between East Lansing defenders. (3) Negaunee's Brady Mager (4) takes on Hancock's Ethan Anderson (45) during the Miners’ 48-20 win. (4) Perry defenders pursue a Bath ball carrier during the Bees’ 40-0 victory. (Top photo by Adam Sheehan. DeWitt/East Lansing photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Hancock photo by Cara Kamps. Perry/Bath photo by John Johnson.)