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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Linden quarterback Dylan Dreasky (7) hands off during his team’s 14-13 win over previously-undefeated Flushing on Friday.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 4 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 23, 2024

“We’ve seen it all” surely belongs among the most overused phrases in sports. But Week 4 provided a few entertaining extremes from an otherwise typical high school football weekend across Michigan.

MI Student AidIn what had to be a first for a Michigan school, DeWitt welcomed an opponent from West Virginia – and in a 70-63 victory combined to tie for the sixth-most points scored between two teams in state history when the losing team scored at least 40.

Conversely, Midland Dow defeated Bay City Western 3-2 – the lowest-possible winning score when both teams put points on the board.

We’ve noted several more results below, of course, including the end of some notable winning – or losing – streaks, depending on who you were cheering on, and a handful of games that very well could decide league championships next month.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Croswell-Lexington 21, North Branch 17 The Broncos (3-1) led into the fourth quarter before Croswell-Lexington (3-1) moved ahead in what could prove a key result in the Blue Water Area Conference race. These two are now tied for third in the league, with Cros-Lex facing co-leader Almont this week (after losing to co-leader Armada in Week 2) and North Branch playing Almont and Armada back-to-back in October. The Pioneers’ 21 points were the first North Branch had given up this season. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list Pinconning 21, Sanford Meridian 14 With this first win over Meridian since 2008 – breaking an eight-game losing streak against the Mustangs – Pinconning (3-1) guaranteed itself a better record than a year ago and its most wins since 2018, and after winning a combined four games over the last five seasons.

On the move Davison 45, Saginaw Heritage 22 This was an important opening win for Davison in Saginaw Valley Red play as it kept the Cardinals (3-1) on pace with co-leaders Lapeer and Grand Blanc and likely left Heritage (2-2) hoping for title share at best. Birch Run 21, New Lothrop 20 The Panthers (2-2) moved to the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference this fall and lost their first two league games, but getting past last season’s runner-up New Lothrop (1-3) was a great sign heading into this week’s matchup with reigning champ Chesaning. Millington 34, Cass City 6 Millington (4-0) also switched leagues this season and is the leader of the Big Thumb Conference White after this win over last season’s Greater Thumb Conference West champ Cass City (2-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Martin Luther King 18, Detroit Cass Tech 12 (OT) A fourth-down Darryl Flemister touchdown pass to Tayshaun Henry, followed by a defensive stop, gave King the latest chapter in this rivalry and broke Cass Tech’s three-game winning streak in the series. King (3-1) is atop the Detroit Public School League Blue tied with Henry Ford and East English, with Cass Tech (2-2) and Renaissance one game back and Cass Tech not facing Ford on the league schedule. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Detroit Catholic Central 27, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 22 DCC (4-0) is alone atop the Catholic High School League Central heading into this week’s massive matchup with Warren De La Salle Collegiate, thanks to this victory over St. Mary’s (2-2) and the Pilots’ 41-6 defeat against Toledo Catholic Central.

On the move Rochester Adams 28, Clarkston 10 The Highlanders’ Oakland Activities Association Red schedule opened with West Bloomfield and Clarkston, and they’ve defeated both to move to 4-0 overall after falling to both last season. Macomb Dakota 24, Sterling Heights Stevenson 9 The Cougars (4-0) and Utica Eisenhower have surged to the front of the Macomb Area Conference Red, Dakota this week handing Stevenson (3-1) its first defeat with a third-straight game giving up fewer than 10 points. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 14, River Rouge 7 Brother Rice ended a 13-game losing streak in a big way avenging last year’s 28-16 defeat to playoff regular River Rouge (2-2).

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Clare 26, Gladwin 21 Clare (4-0) took a major step in the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 race thanks to an unforgettable drive at the end of this rivalry matchup. The Pioneers marched 99 yards over three minutes with Aiden Van Bonn scoring the game-winner with 53 seconds left. Gladwin had won three straight regular-season meetings with Clare (with a Clare 2021 playoff win mixed in). Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Watch list Leslie 33, Michigan Center 31 In avenging a 28-point loss from a year ago, Leslie (4-0) tied its win total from 2023 and moved closer to guaranteeing a first winning season since 2012. Michigan Center (1-3), meanwhile, has two losses by a combined three points.

On the move Hastings 31, Parma Western 17 These two decided the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title last season, and Hastings (4-0) will continue its repeat pursuit after defeating Western (3-1) for the fourth-straight season. Corunna 48, Owosso 13 Corunna (4-0) ran its winning streak in this rivalry to six by handing Owosso (3-1) its first defeat. Mason 30, Haslett 24 (OT) Mason (3-1) sent this one to overtime with a field goal on the last play of regulation and emerged from a potential league-deciding matchup that saw neither team commit a turnover.

Fowler’s Ford Phillips (15) breaks into an opening but with Bath’s Isiah Delacruz (1) closing in. The Eagles won 41-0.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 26, East Jordan 20 After a couple of tough losses over the first month, Charlevoix (2-2) is moving in the right direction and will jump back into league play after handing East Jordan its first defeat. East Jordan (3-1) may very well end up the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy champion again with a key matchup this week against Maple City Glen Lake. But the Rayders can carry some momentum especially defensively back into NMFL Leaders play after containing a Red Devils offense that had scored 44 or more points in all of its first three games. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Petoskey 20, Gaylord 0 Petoskey (4-0) is off to its best start since 2011 and giving up just under eight points per game after this shutout of the reigning Big North Conference champion Blue Devils.

On the move Manton 24, Lake City 22 Manton (1-3) had lost eight straight to Lake City (1-3) and took a nice first step for this season specifically after winning once all of last fall and missing out on a Week 3 victory by eight points. Kingsley 26, Boyne City 20 Kingsley (3-1) navigated a tough obstacle in Boyne City (2-2) on the way to this week’s potential NMFL Legends-deciding matchup with Traverse City St. Francis. Oscoda 20, Elk Rapids 0 After an 0-2 start, Oscoda (2-2) is even again after avenging last year’s 30-0 defeat to the Elks.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Manchester 36, Napoleon 14 Manchester (4-0) took a major step opening in a strong Cascades Conference East by ending a five-game losing streak to Napoleon (2-2), which had won 11 straight league games and two straight league championships. The Flying Dutchmen see undefeated Leslie (noted above) this week. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Clinton 8, Blissfied 0 Clinton (3-1) posted its second-straight shutout to start Lenawee County Athletic Association play and made a second-quarter touchdown stand against the Royals (2-2).

On the move Adrian Madison 38, Dundee 13 The Trojans (3-1) just keep building, bouncing back from a Week 3 loss to Clinton as they continue to leave behind last year’s 1-8 finish. Dexter 56, Ann Arbor Huron 19 The Dreadnaughts (3-1) have rebounded from a Week 2 loss to Saline with a pair of 50-point performances, and they’ll be rooting for Huron (2-2) against Saline this week. Tecumseh 20, Adrian 10 Tecumseh (2-2) had lost its last two games by one point and then eight, but got even by avenging last year’s 29-7 defeat to the Maples (2-2).

DeWitt’s Tyler Dusseau (65) and Max Holtz (5) bring down a ball carrier from Hurricane, WV.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER White Pigeon 14, Decatur 6 This was as good as forecast, as White Pigeon (4-0) scored the only points of the second half to get past Decatur (3-1) and extend its regular-season winning streak to 17. Touchdowns were scored on defense, special teams and via a trick play. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Kalamazoo Central 41, Stevensville Lakeshore 37 Kalamazoo Central’s first win over Lakeshore since 2018 moved the Maroon Giants to 3-1, giving them one more win than all of last season and guaranteeing their best finish since at least 2019.

On the move Bronson 34, Reading 12 Bronson (3-1) was 0-6 against Reading (1-3) since joining the Big 8 Conference in 2017, and a third win this season means the Vikings will at least tie their winningest since 2012. Constantine 28, South Haven 22 These two decided the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore title last year, and the Falcons (4-0) showed some grit again with their second-straight one-score win this fall. Paw Paw 34, Vicksburg 7 Paw Paw has outscored its first two Wolverine Conference opponents by a combined 97-7 and has not given up more than 15 points to any opponent this fall.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 29, Negaunee 27 Last season’s Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper co-champions met for what could eventually decide the league title this fall, and this time Kingsford won close after falling to Negaunee 13-12 a year ago. The Miners (3-1) trailed big in the third quarter before launching a comeback, but the Flivvers held on to move to 4-0. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Escanaba 45, Sault Ste. Marie 0 For the second time this season, Escanaba avenged a 2023 loss. Escanaba had lost their last two recent meetings with Sault Ste. Marie, and at 2-2 already has as many wins as both of the last two seasons.

On the move Bark River-Harris 48, Gwinn 0 Bark River-Harris (2-2) is back to even after opening with two losses, and as the Broncos pursue a fifth-straight winning season. Menominee 48, Calumet 6 The Maroons (4-0) also are positioning themselves for another run at the West-PAC Copper title, in this one sending Calumet to 2-2. Houghton 39, Ishpeming Westwood 8 The Gremlins (2-2) pulled within a win of tying last season’s total.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Hudsonville 28, Rockford 21 Hudsonville (3-1) broke a nine-game losing streak against its rival that stretched back to the 2016 playoffs, and ended previously-undefeated Rockford’s Ottawa-Kent Conference Red 27-game winning streak that began in 2019. The Eagles fell to the Rams 48-0 just last season, but now sit with East Kentwood atop the early league standings. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Newaygo 42, Howard City Tri County 38 Newaygo (4-0) is in its second season under legendary past Rockford coach Ralph Munger, and its four wins this fall are more than the team has won in a season since 2019. Tri County (3-1) was last season’s runner-up in the Central State Activities Association Gold and had defeated Newaygo in four straight.

On the move Muskegon Mona Shores 14, Byron Center 12 Only Hudsonville’s stunner could dislodge this from West Michigan’s top billing above, as Mona Shores won this matchup of undefeated teams in a defensive showdown. Hudsonville Unity Christian 43, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 20 We already figured Unity (4-0) was back to being Unity past, but doubling up the reigning Division 3 champion FHC (3-1) speaks plenty more. Grand Rapids Northview 31, East Grand Rapids 27 Northview made the playoffs at 4-5 last season in part because of its tough schedule, and the Wildcats are looking great to build on that with this win making them 4-0. Northview had lost all five of their recent meetings with EGR (2-2).

8-Player

HEADLINER Deckerville 30, Brown City 28 Half the eight-team Big Thumb Conference Blue is 3-1 or better this fall, and Deckerville (4-0) is tied with Kingston at the top of the standings after pulling ahead of the Green Devils (3-1) to claim this meeting. Deckerville had lost both of its previous 8-player matchups with Brown City, including 46-28 last season as the Green Devils went on to a league title. Click for more from the Sanilac County News.

Watch list Burr Oak 66, Tekonsha 8 The Bobcats were a combined 2-25 the last three seasons heading into this one, but they’re 3-1 this fall and already have scored more points than during any full season since 2020.

On the move Pickford 65, Ishpeming 14 The Hematites (3-1) no doubt will become an 8-player force, but Pickford (4-0) remains one of if not the top team to chase in the Upper Peninsula. Gaylord St. Mary 56, Bellaire 8 St. Mary (3-1) bounced back from a Week 3 loss to Ishpeming to hand Bellaire (3-1) its first defeat. Portland St. Patrick 29, Morrice 12 The Shamrocks (4-0) made it two in a row over the rival Orioles (3-1), impressing especially on defense as Morrice had scored at least 44 points in all of its first three games.

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PHOTOS (Top) Linden quarterback Dylan Dreasky (7) hands off during his team’s 14-13 win over previously-undefeated Flushing on Friday. (Middle) Fowler’s Ford Phillips (15) breaks into an opening but with Bath’s Isiah Delacruz (1) closing in. The Eagles won 41-0. (Below) DeWitt’s Tyler Dusseau (65) and Max Holtz (5) bring down a ball carrier from Hurricane, WV. (Top photo by Terry Lyons, middle photo by John Johnson, and below photo by Max McCallister.)