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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Okemos' Jamaris Graham (5) works to pull away from a Clio tackler Friday.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 9, 2024

Every Monday during football season we provide at least a glance at the “story behind the scores” from nearly 50 of the previous weekend’s games across Michigan.

MI Student AidSeveral of those storylines were obvious during Week 2.

One of the most notable celebrations took place in Okemos, where the Wolves defeated Clio 35-0 to end a 41-game losing streak dating back to the third game of the 2019 season.

Martin, meanwhile, has celebrated two straight 8-player Division 1 championships, and can add ending Bridgman’s 35-game winning streak to the list after the Clippers prevailed 42-36.

Eyes are always on the champions, and five of last season’s Finals title winners fell during Week 2 – Clarkston defeated Southfield Arts & Technology (11-player Division 1), Rockford held off Muskegon (11-D2), Oxford downed Harper Woods (D4), Pontiac Notre Dame Prep defeated Jackson Lumen Christi (D7) and Clarkston Everest Collegiate edged Ubly (D8).

And finally, New Baltimore Anchor Bay and Roseville set the record for most points scored in a single-overtime 11-player game with 131 as Anchor Bay won 66-65. Tawas’ 70-69 win over Shepherd in 2002 – in four overtimes – remains the only higher-scoring 11-player game to go past regulation.

For many more “stories behind the scores” of Week 2, see below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Armada 14, Croswell-Lexington 0 Armada (2-0) has been on an upward trajectory for the last three seasons, and this first win over Croswell-Lexington since 2004 will certainly be remembered among the most important wins during the ascension. Not only did it end a 19-game losing streak against the Pioneers, but the Tigers handed Cros-Lex its first shutout since 2020. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.

Watch list Flushing 27, Zeeland East 21 The Raiders are 2-0 for the first time since 2011 and after finishing 3-6 a year ago. This one was especially impressive as East (1-1) was a playoff team last year. Flushing is seeking its first winning season since 2018.

On the move Fenton 21, Haslett 14 The Tigers and especially quarterback Noah Sheil made a series of big plays when needed to move to 2-0 for the first time since 2020 and send the Vikings to 0-2. Saginaw Heritage 28, Midland Dow 27 (OT) Jeremiah Walker was the hero with the overtime touchdown to move Heritage to 2-0 and Dow to 0-2. Bay City Central 12, Flint Kearsley 6 (OT) A tough Saginaw Valley League Blue schedule lies ahead, but Bay City Central (1-1) already has equaled last season’s win total and did so against a Kearsley team that had won impressively in its season opener.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Warren De La Salle 35, Detroit Martin Luther King 13 In arguably the most anticipated matchup of the weekend statewide, De La Salle opened a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and led 28-7 at halftime. The defense especially continued to impress in following up on the three points allowed to Davison in Week 1. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Oxford 38, Harper Woods 0 The Wildcats (1-1) bounced back from a season-opening defeat with one of the loudest wins in the state over the first two weeks, shutting out last season’s Division 4 champion. Harper Woods (1-1) averaged 34 points per game during last year’s run and had put up 43 against Redford Union to start this fall.

On the move Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 28, Jackson Lumen Christi 24 Notre Dame Prep (2-0) has strung together 11 playoff seasons over the last 15 and lost only once a year ago – but downing the reigning Division 7 champion Titans (1-1) will certainly have the Fighting Irish getting some significant attention, and with last season’s Division 5 champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central coming to town this week. Birmingham Groves 28, West Bloomfield 13 Groves (2-0) avenged last season’s 41-10 loss to West Bloomfield (1-1), made even more impressive by the Lakers’ 42-0 win over Clinton Township Chippewa Valley to start this season. Detroit Catholic Central 21, Toledo Central Catholic (Ohio) 7 It's early, but this is massive in the Catholic High School League Central as TCC was last season’s champion and defeated the Shamrocks 42-21 in 2023.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Durand 22, New Lothrop 16 Coming off a league championship in 2022, Durand fell back to 3-6 a year ago – but that’s becoming a distant memory quickly with the Railroaders (2-0) already having avenged two losses from a year ago. They lost 29-12 to New Lothrop last year but nearly flipped that result this time and have two more possible revenge games coming up with Montrose and Ovid-Else over the next two weeks, respectively. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 13, Lansing Catholic 9 The J-Dubbs (1-1) quickly bounced back from a 28-0 loss to Everett in their season opener to win an important Capital Area Activities Conference White matchup. Sexton contended with eventual champion Portland last season, but Lansing Catholic (1-1) also looks to be in the mix this fall.

On the move DeWitt 55, Mason 21 The Panthers have scored 124 points over two games and with this one avenging a pair of losses from last season to the eventual Division 3 runner-up Bulldogs (1-1). Hastings 16, Williamston 12 That Hastings is off to a solid start isn’t stunning given its success over the last four seasons, but the Saxons should savor this one after taking the lead for good in the fourth quarter against a Williamston team that has made the playoffs eight straight seasons. Ionia 43, Eaton Rapids 7 Ionia is 2-0 for the first time since 2016 and also avenged a 2023 loss to Belding in Week 1 – two nice boosts heading into this week’s league matchup with Portland.

A Belleville defender closes in on Livonia Stevenson's Tasso Kotsogiannis (24).

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsley 16, Gaylord 0 The reigning Division 6 champion Stags (1-1) got back on track after a Week 1 loss to Reed City, avenging a 42-39 loss to Gaylord from a year ago. The shutout was Kingsley’s first in two years. Gaylord, meanwhile, is 0-2 but has given up only a combined 22 points over those defeats. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 31, Lawton 14 St. Francis (2-0) is another program that lives among the statewide contenders most seasons, but the Gladiators were just 4-5 a year ago. The rebound is on, as their two wins so far this fall have come against opponents that went a combined 18-4 in 2023.

On the move Cheboygan 35, Sault Ste. Marie 12 Cheboygan’s only win last season came in its final game, but against playoff-bound Benzie Central. The Chiefs (1-1) took another notable step in avenging their 26-0 loss from last year to Sault Ste. Marie (0-2), which is coming off a sixth-straight winning season. Maple City Glen Lake 50, Frankfort 7 After scoring 221 points a year ago, Glen Lake (2-0) has nearly half that over two games and after this one avenging a 28-15 loss to Frankfort (1-1) from last season. Lake City 38, Evart 27 Lake City was another team that didn’t let an opening loss send it off-course. The Trojans (1-1) came back after falling to Hart in Week 1 by avenging last season’s 20-12 loss to Evart (1-1), which is coming off a fourth-straight playoff season.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 34, Dexter 14 Saline (2-0) earned a potentially-important early advantage in the Southeastern Conference Red – so important, that the result of this matchup a year ago ended up deciding the league title in the Hornets’ favor. James Rush had two touchdowns to open the Saline scoring, and the defense held Dexter (1-1) to its fewest points in a game since the 2020 opener. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Ida 21, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 6 Keep an eye on Ida, which is 2-0 for the first time since 2018. Whiteford entered this weekend with a 24-game regular-season winning streak, but the Bluestreaks earned their first win in the series since the two began playing each other again in 2021. Whiteford had won last year’s meeting 22-7.

On the move Hanover-Horton 21, Michigan Center 20 Hanover-Horton (2-0) is 2-0 for the first time since 2014, has as many wins this season as all of last, and edged a Cardinals team that while 0-2 is almost annually a league title contender (now on the other side of the two-division Cascades Conference). Manchester 20, Addison 8 In another cross-division Cascades matchup, Manchester (2-0) earned a notable win over last season’s West title winner. Blissfield 20, Tecumseh 19 Both are 1-1 and finished 5-5 a year ago, but there’s some intrigue here for the Division 7 Royals with a solid win over a returning Division 4 playoff team.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER White Pigeon 16, Buchanan 9 White Pigeon (2-0) extended its regular-season winning streak to 15 with its closest win of the string. In doing so, the Chiefs also held Saugatuck (1-1) to single-digit scoring for only the second time since 2021. Click for more from WBET.

Watch list St. Joseph 36, Edwardsburg 29 Two weeks into the season, St. Joseph (2-0) has arguably the best start in the southwest with this win following up its victory over Niles in the opener. This was the first meeting between the Bears and Eddies (1-1) since the 2019 playoffs.

On the move Niles 46, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 Niles (1-1) quickly bounced back from its opening loss to St. Joseph, avenging last season’s 15-14 defeat against Lakeshore (0-2) that ended up the Vikings’ lone loss before the Regional Finals. Schoolcraft 28, Centreville 6 The Eagles (2-0) have opened with a pair of wins over 2023 playoff teams in advance of this week’s matchup with rival Constantine. Bronson 26, Sand Creek 6 Bronson (1-1) is seeking its first winning record since 2012 and has to be pleased with opening Big 8 Conference play by avenging last season’s 8-6 loss to the Aggies (1-1).

Grand Rapids South Christian's Owen Burgess (2) works to wrap up an East Grand Rapids ball carrier. 

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Escanaba 28, Cadillac 21 (OT) It’s been a tough run lately for Escanaba, but this is the kind of win that could spark things. Escanaba (1-1) had lost to Cadillac the last two seasons, including 43-36 last fall after joining the Vikings in the Big North Conference. Cadillac is 0-2, but with both losses by seven points. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Calumet 30, Ishpeming Westwood 14 The Copper Kings (2-0) are only one win away from equaling last season’s total, with this their best start since 2019 – when they went on to finish 10-2. A significant test against Negaunee is up next.

On the move Kingsford 28, Houghton 8 The Flivvers (2-0) have begun with another solid opening stretch, outscoring their first two opponents by a combined 49-8. Negaunee 28, Gladstone 7 Negaunee (2-0) certainly enjoyed this start to league play after falling to Gladstone 42-14 a year ago and going on to share the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title with Kingsford because of it. Marquette 51, Alpena 0 Gaylord this week could provide the toughest challenge yet for Marquette (2-0), but the Sentinels are 2-0 for the first time since 2013 and haven’t given up a point.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 28, Muskegon 21 To no one’s surprise, this was exciting until the end as Muskegon scored the final 14 points of the game but couldn’t come all the way back. Rockford improved to 2-0 with both wins this season by seven points, while Muskegon fell to 0-2 and is off this week before beginning league play. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Muskegon Mona Shores 21, River Rouge 6 Mona Shores (2-0) is opening this season with three straight road games (and four over the first five weeks) but added this successful trip to an impressive Week 1 win at Grand Blanc.

On the move Montague 14, Muskegon Oakridge 7 The Wildcats (1-1) are back on top in this rivalry for the first time since 2021 and after losing to Oakridge (1-1) by 21 points in their Week 9 meeting last season. Grand Rapids South Christian 42, East Grand Rapids 28 South Christian (2-0) avenged last season’s 23-21 loss to EGR (1-1), a nice boost heading into this week’s matchup with Grand Rapids West Catholic. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 7, Portage Central 0 The reigning Division 3 champion Rangers (2-0) made a second-quarter touchdown stand in handing Portage Central (0-2) its first shutout since its matchup with FHC in 2022.

8-Player

HEADLINER Martin 42, Bridgman 36 After two losses by a combined three points the last two years, Martin earned this one-score win over Bridgman – and in the process ended the Bees’ 35-game winning streak. The Clippers built a 36-14 lead and held on to defeat the only opponent they hadn’t beaten at least once during their back-to-back Division 1 championship seasons. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Ontonagon 72, Rapid River 22 Ontonagon’s offense couldn’t have started this season more in stride, as the Gladiators (2-0) have scored a combined 158 points over the first two weeks.

On the move Atlanta 38, Whittemore-Prescott 12 For the second-straight week, Atlanta (2-0) avenged a loss from 2023, this time after falling to Whittemore-Prescott 54-34 a year ago. St. Charles 32, Carson City-Crystal 24 St. Charles (1-1) bounced back from a heavy Week 1 loss to down last season’s Mid-State Activities Conference Blue champion in a league opener. Climax-Scotts 54, Newberry 28 Climax-Scotts (1-1) was another Week 2 rebounder, evening its record against a Newberry team that is 0-2 but coming off three straight winning seasons.

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PHOTOS (Top) Okemos' Jamaris Graham (5) works to pull away from a Clio tackler Friday. (Middle) A Belleville defender closes in on Livonia Stevenson's Tasso Kotsogiannis (24). (Below) Grand Rapids South Christian's Owen Burgess (2) works to wrap up an East Grand Rapids ball carrier. (Top photo by John Johnson. Middle photo by Douglas Bargerstock. Below photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)